On 4/18/2025 at 6:27 PM, LethalPG said:

Higgonbotham from McCreay avg. 20 and 10 last year. 

How did he do against top competition?  I did not see him play so that is why I am asking.  I know that McCreary traditionally plays a softer schedule so could those numbers be inflated due to this?

 

57 minutes ago, Joe LeDuc said:

How did he do against top competition?  I did not see him play so that is why I am asking.  I know that McCreary traditionally plays a softer schedule so could those numbers be inflated due to this?

 

Really hard nosed athletic kid.  Sim. To the Stephens kid they had a few years ago that won POY.  

They were 1 seed in 48th last season and bring everyone back. 

25 minutes ago, LethalPG said:

They were 1 seed in 48th last season and bring everyone back. 

They are just one of those wait and see teams for me. Yes have talent returning and a top player in the region but seemed to fizzle late last season. Lost big to Somerset late and then just didn’t look great against Southwestern in district. They could win it but Southwestern returns everyone but Dumphord as well and Wayne looked strong at end of season and returns everyone. 

2 hours ago, BasketballFan24 said:

They are just one of those wait and see teams for me. Yes have talent returning and a top player in the region but seemed to fizzle late last season. Lost big to Somerset late and then just didn’t look great against Southwestern in district. They could win it but Southwestern returns everyone but Dumphord as well and Wayne looked strong at end of season and returns everyone. 

Higgonbotam was hurt in Somerset game, and the District Semis vs SW was nip and tuck game the whole way in which they lost 61-57.  They’ve won the district tournament 3 times in last 5 seasons.  Underrated and solid program year in and out. 

4 hours ago, BasketballFan24 said:

They are just one of those wait and see teams for me. Yes have talent returning and a top player in the region but seemed to fizzle late last season. Lost big to Somerset late and then just didn’t look great against Southwestern in district. They could win it but Southwestern returns everyone but Dumphord as well and Wayne looked strong at end of season and returns everyone. 

This remains to be seen. 

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On 4/18/2025 at 8:26 PM, Statsdontlie said:

I can't wait to watch Walker Craig next year, I think he will win 12th region POY if he stays healthy. 

Very possible!

The 12th region may be the most wide open it's been in many many years this upcoming season. I have just a few random thoughts some of my buddies and I have talked about since the season ended.

Like others have said, Somerset returns a great core group. Along with Absher, I especially like Josh Lewis and hope he can make it through football season and give them a basketball season at full strength.

Rock with Walker Craig will be a tough out. I'm excited for that kid to be back on the floor and wish him nothing but the best. Craig is a hard worker and deserves a monster senior season.

Pulaski is Pulaski. They'll have someone to step up and help Fraley and Farmer and they'll contend.

I'm anxious to see a junior Cash Baird for Lincoln.

McCreary Central has one of the better coaches in any region, in my opinion, with Wade Davis. Really like the guy. Higginbotham is sneaky strong at the rim with his shot and rebounding the ball. If he developed a three point shot, he only took 16 threes last year, he would be The Joker of the 12th. ?  I was impressed with Summers towards the end of the season as well.

I follow Wayne so I obviously know more about them. Ryder Bell only played 13 games last season and was the 2nd leading scorer and rebounder when he went down with a knee injury. Word is that his rehab is going well and on schedule. Kendall Phillips is who he is and is on pace to become the all time leading scorer at Wayne. No small accomplishment. Korbyn Edwards looked out of sorts some in the beginning of the season in a new system but I felt he played better and more within himself as the season progressed. Maybe he and Parmley got on more of the same page...or at least in the same book. A junior PG Edwards could be special. A lot of these players had been running Woods' stuff since the 5th grade so the first year of a new system was definitely a learning curve for much of the season.

As mentioned in the initial post, can Wayne keep the outside drama down going into next season? The new school board recently forced the superintendent that fired coach Woods to resign. Obviously, rumors are swirling and boy's basketball are included in some of those rumors. Hopefully, stability for the kids prevails.

 

One of the metrics I find useful for making predictions is team defense.  Usually, it indicates good coaching.  And, most of the time a team has to have a decent number of athletes to play consistently good defense.  Many of the predictions on this thread are based on which players can score, and that's important, but I'd like to look at things from a defensive standpoint.

Here are the team defensive rankings for this year:

Massey

DCA - 7    Mercer - 14.    Lincoln - 16.       PC - 45.      West Jessamine - 49

KHSAA

DCA - 2      Mercer - 3.       West Jessamine - 5.         Lincoln - 7.        Somerset - 26.     PC - 31

Each of the teams in these rankings has good coaching.  DCA, Mercer, and PC all took big hits in terms of graduation losses.  Of these teams DCA has the best individual player in Ateny.  Lincoln and Somerset have the biggest number of solid, experienced players returning.  

Now, let's look at teams that have been mentioned whose defense is not as good.  Based on the Massey rankings:

Wayne County - 70.   Southwestern - 98.     Rockcastle - 109.     McCreary - 155

Can a team like Rockcastle lose a solid player like Connor Hunt and move from an 8 win season and a mediocre defense to challenge for the regional championship even if they get a proven offensive threat like Craig?  It's possible but not that likely.  I think it's the same situation with McCreary.  

As far as predictions go I'd say we'll still see those same teams in the top next year with the possibility that a Wayne or a Southwestern could improve enough on defense to compete with them.  Or, in the case of a team like Mercer, losing Ellis and Preston might be too big of a hit and they struggle to score.  It's a given that West Jessamine, Lincoln, and Somerset all have a good number of quality players returning and they play good defense so those 3 would probably be the favorites.  Plus, they have good coaching.   If DCA, Mercer, and PC can replace their seniors they'll still be in the hunt.  

14 minutes ago, 24Rocks said:

One of the metrics I find useful for making predictions is team defense.  Usually, it indicates good coaching.  And, most of the time a team has to have a decent number of athletes to play consistently good defense.  Many of the predictions on this thread are based on which players can score, and that's important, but I'd like to look at things from a defensive standpoint.

Here are the team defensive rankings for this year:

Massey

DCA - 7    Mercer - 14.    Lincoln - 16.       PC - 45.      West Jessamine - 49

KHSAA

DCA - 2      Mercer - 3.       West Jessamine - 5.         Lincoln - 7.        Somerset - 26.     PC - 31

Each of the teams in these rankings has good coaching.  DCA, Mercer, and PC all took big hits in terms of graduation losses.  Of these teams DCA has the best individual player in Ateny.  Lincoln and Somerset have the biggest number of solid, experienced players returning.  

Now, let's look at teams that have been mentioned whose defense is not as good.  Based on the Massey rankings:

Wayne County - 70.   Southwestern - 98.     Rockcastle - 109.     McCreary - 155

Can a team like Rockcastle lose a solid player like Connor Hunt and move from an 8 win season and a mediocre defense to challenge for the regional championship even if they get a proven offensive threat like Craig?  It's possible but not that likely.  I think it's the same situation with McCreary.  

As far as predictions go I'd say we'll still see those same teams in the top next year with the possibility that a Wayne or a Southwestern could improve enough on defense to compete with them.  Or, in the case of a team like Mercer, losing Ellis and Preston might be too big of a hit and they struggle to score.  It's a given that West Jessamine, Lincoln, and Somerset all have a good number of quality players returning and they play good defense so those 3 would probably be the favorites.  Plus, they have good coaching.   If DCA, Mercer, and PC can replace their seniors they'll still be in the hunt.  

I like this breakdown. Everybody is always thinking about the best scores in the region, but this end of the court usually determines who heads to Rupp. 

1 hour ago, 24Rocks said:

One of the metrics I find useful for making predictions is team defense.  Usually, it indicates good coaching.  And, most of the time a team has to have a decent number of athletes to play consistently good defense.  Many of the predictions on this thread are based on which players can score, and that's important, but I'd like to look at things from a defensive standpoint.

Here are the team defensive rankings for this year:

Massey

DCA - 7    Mercer - 14.    Lincoln - 16.       PC - 45.      West Jessamine - 49

KHSAA

DCA - 2      Mercer - 3.       West Jessamine - 5.         Lincoln - 7.        Somerset - 26.     PC - 31

Each of the teams in these rankings has good coaching.  DCA, Mercer, and PC all took big hits in terms of graduation losses.  Of these teams DCA has the best individual player in Ateny.  Lincoln and Somerset have the biggest number of solid, experienced players returning.  

Now, let's look at teams that have been mentioned whose defense is not as good.  Based on the Massey rankings:

Wayne County - 70.   Southwestern - 98.     Rockcastle - 109.     McCreary - 155

Can a team like Rockcastle lose a solid player like Connor Hunt and move from an 8 win season and a mediocre defense to challenge for the regional championship even if they get a proven offensive threat like Craig?  It's possible but not that likely.  I think it's the same situation with McCreary.  

As far as predictions go I'd say we'll still see those same teams in the top next year with the possibility that a Wayne or a Southwestern could improve enough on defense to compete with them.  Or, in the case of a team like Mercer, losing Ellis and Preston might be too big of a hit and they struggle to score.  It's a given that West Jessamine, Lincoln, and Somerset all have a good number of quality players returning and they play good defense so those 3 would probably be the favorites.  Plus, they have good coaching.   If DCA, Mercer, and PC can replace their seniors they'll still be in the hunt.  

Reading your post had me curious on how it correlated with wins as well.  Wins per season since 2022/23 backs up the metrics and your thought process too:

1) Pulaski Co. 23 

2) DCA 22.6 

3) Mercer Co. 19.6 

4) Lincoln Co. 19 

5) Somerset 18

I think it is going to be a wide open race for POY (SR. award) for the upcoming season.  Guard heavy candidates outside of Ateny, who to me has inside track and is best player/prospect without question. 

• Leek Ateny, DCA 
• Walker Craig, Rockcastle Co.
• Kendall Phillips, Wayne Co. 
• Aedyn Absher, Somerset 
• Zach Hutchinson, SW 
• Peyton Higgonbotham, McCreary Central
• Carson Fraley, Pulaski Co. 

2 hours ago, 24Rocks said:

One of the metrics I find useful for making predictions is team defense.  Usually, it indicates good coaching.  And, most of the time a team has to have a decent number of athletes to play consistently good defense.  Many of the predictions on this thread are based on which players can score, and that's important, but I'd like to look at things from a defensive standpoint.

 

But does it really indicate good coaching? Sometimes, yes. Sometimes, I'm not really sure. Do you think there was a coach in the 12th region who couldn't have great defensive numbers with Big Lou, Leak, and Titus on their team? Seriously, I usually agree with a lot of what you're saying, but as far as defensive numbers are concerned, I'm pretty sure just about anyone could have had competitive numbers there.