24Rocks

This discussion got me interested in what the data says about end of game scenarios. There's plenty of information out there and the NBA and NCAA have a lot of good data. It varies from "what actually happened in games" to "given the probabilities of various events what should happen". On the high school level we don't have that much detailed data and the shooting isn't as good so it's tough to apply the same metrics. The simplest way to analyze this situation between WJ and SW is to look at Points Per Possession (PPP). Both teams were probably in the .90 range in this game. 1.0 PPP is a pretty good goal for a high school team. If you're not in that range you're not going to beat many people. A 65% FT shooter going to the line for 2 gives you a probable PPP of 1.3 for that trip. That's 0.4 PPP more than you'd give up if you simply played solid defense. As far as I'm concerned choosing a strategy that will probably give my opponent 1.3 points versus 0.9 points doesn't make sense.

They lost 2 good seniors but their shooter, Baker, is back. They'll be an interesting team, they don't have a lot of depth but they have a good coach in Al Gover. They could be the kind of team that could sneak up on a few people.

Based on last year's performance as well as who the teams have returning it should be either Somerset or DCA.

My impression was that he was more focused on basketball than football but I may be wrong about that. If so, Paris wasn't very good last year at 9-19 with only a .441 RPI.

I just saw where he transferred to Paris. Sorry about that.

I noticed that Guy Turner is no longer on the roster for CAL. What happened there?

Based on this article I stand corrected on my comment about not taking a three when down two. https://bestballstats.com/2022/10/12/foul-up-3-or-defend-analyzing-late-game-strategy/ He points out that in order to win when going for a 2 when you are behind by 2 you not only have to hit the 2 but you have to win in overtime. If you look at his bar graph near the bottom the win probability is pretty low in either case.

Dumphord was shooting 65% from the line. That's definitely in the "don't foul" range.

He didn't play in the Mercer game (district championship). Not sure why. He didn't appear to have a hot hand, he was 1/5 from 2 and 2/3 from 3.

Based on their late season games I'd guess that it would be in the 50% range.

Watching the video it's pretty clear that they were going to #30 for a three based on their screening and his cut. SW defended it well and he did the obvious thing which was to dribble into the lane for a pull up jumper. It wasn't a bad play on his part. The more logical option, IMHO, would be to attack the basket. They've got Tut, who's a strong 6-9 and a 66% free throw shooter. Get the ball on the rim with some time on the clock and if you don't make it you might draw a foul on the rebound. I was using season stats. In the handful of games prior to that one he was 0/2, 2/4, and 0/2 for 25%. He was 2/3 in that game.

This is probably WAY more information than most people want but for those interested in data and analytics it's interesting. It might be helpful for those of you who are coaching to take a look at what the stats say. https://kenpom.com/blog/the-guide-to-fouling-when-leading-or-tied/

I just rewatched it. The Lincoln County announcers thought it was a coaching decision and given the way the kid fouled Dumphord I'd agree. Not a good choice.

I'd rather count on the defense to get the game to overtime, especially with Tut in the middle, than to play from 2 behind with a limited clock.

Was that a coaching mistake or a mistake by a player?

After DCA and Mercer the next 8 teams all had between 6 and 8 regional losses. It’s way too early to tell what we’ll see in the 12th this year. Plus, there have been some key transfers like Farmer going back to Wayne. Some new additions, such as Ben Mikel, to DCA. Injuries, such as Maddox Hager. While it’s possible for a guy who sat out a year or two to step up in a big way it’s not probable. It’s the same thing for guys who averaged 2 ppg and appeared in half the games.

Where was he before?

I forgot to mention, they can play JV games but aren't allowed to play on the varsity. They can practice with the varsity.

Yes, that's correct. I don't know if there's any way around it. It's 365 days from when they enroll.

Got it. Do any of the ranking services break them down by the class of the school?

In the title of the post he said 6A.

It seems to me that the total number of roster spots is the same as what it was before these changes went into place. There's just a lot more turnover. I think that it has become really important for these players to go somewhere where they'll get playing time. Unless they really like the school or are basing their decision on academics they have to prove themselves to the coaches at the higher levels of competition.

I think that in a lot of cases these players would be better off learning to shoot. It's the most basic and important basketball skill and the prep school and AAU circuit don't necessarily help in that aspect of the game. A good example is the Thompson twins. They are very athletic and playing in the NBA. They bypassed their senior year of high school and college and played for Overtime Elite. They were groomed for basketball from the 6th grade on. Their father homeschooled them in the 6th and 7th grade so they could focus on basketball. I understand the argument that given their high draft status and the fact they are playing in the NBA would indicate the strategy worked. I would counter with the fact that they can't shoot from outside. How can you spend that kind of time training gifted athletes and then they shoot 22% from 3 and less than 70% from the line? Time will tell but given the amount of talent and the quality of the shooters coming into the league every year their shooting deficiencies could cost them millions.

I taught in a junior high (7th-9th grade) in KY in the late 80's and early 90's. We had a group home in the county and those kids were required to go to our school. My worst case was a young man (15 years old, maybe 6-2 and 240 lbs) who arrived at our school in the back of the Sheriff's car. They took the handcuffs off of him and 15 minutes later he was in my class. He had been convicted of 17 felonies, the worse being attempted murder. It would have been murder but the kid he attacked with a pipe didn't die. He was on heavy doses of thorazine to keep him under control. (I got this information from his counselor, whom he attacked with a piece of firewood. The counselor warned me to never turn my back on him.......) He lasted a little while and ultimately left the way he arrived, in handcuffs in the back of the Sheriff's car. There is no way someone like that should be in the student population. I don't know what they ultimately do with someone like that but putting them into school is not a good solution. I understand that this is an extreme example but we were really lucky that we didn't have someone seriously injured. The counselor I referred to saw a movement out of the corner of his eye and instinctively ducked or he would probably have had his skull fractured.

They might only play games for 15 weeks but most of the good programs train year round. Boyle County has them coming in before school during basketball season to lift and do drills. It's considered "voluntary" for the dual sport athletes but I doubt if many of them want to skip the workouts because they'll be afraid they'll lose their spot. I have a different take on it. I don't consider any sport year round to be good. I'd like to see limits imposed. More is not necessarily better. Back in my teaching days I had a chemistry class first period and the girl's basketball players struggled to stay awake because the coach ran them to death.