ATLCat

Final Belfry’s Kane Caudill adds a TD run on the last play. Belfry 55 Pike Central 14

I can live with leaving your 1’s in against the 2’s and scoring with your base offense. Don’t love it, but it happens all the time. Trick plays and onside kicks against Freshman is a whole different story though. Even if they use the “live game rep” excuse, it is also bad form because you just wasted all that practice to score when it doesn’t matter. Save that play when you are tied at 20-20 in the 4th against Floyd Central fighting for the last playoff spot. Now you gave everyone film to scout it.

And then an onside kick that the Hawks recover… hmm…

Belfry drives with the JV for a TD to make it 49-0. Not sure how I feel about what Pike Central does with their varsity against the Belfry subs. First play from scrimmage Pike Central runs a double reverse pass for a long TD. They also go for two to make it 49-8. Why not run that in the First Half when you are facing a Varsity defense?

Cayden Varney had an INT on defense and two TD receptions. Ace Caudill with a pair of long TD runs. JB Woolum with a pair of long TD runs. Hoping Belfry pulls the brunt of their starters and avoid injury.

Half Belfry 42 Pike Central 0 Belfry has scored six TDs on probably 12 or so offensive plays.

I don't know when the RPI is coming out, but I trust TP's power rankings over whatever we are about to see from the RPI 10 times out of 10.

I think there are several good examples recently you can pull from as a case study, but Isaac Dixon of Belfry in 2021 is probably the best example. Basically the only games Belfry was winning in the regular season were running clocks. They also had a Covid forfeit. Between two games against Pike Central, Magoffin County, and Floyd Central he had ten carries combined. What I will say is this, in terms of those running clock games, efficiency is key. Dixon averaged probably 30 yards per carry in those games and scored a TD about every 2.5 touches. The bigger picture though is stats only go so far in Mr. Football.... what Dixon proved is your grand stage to win the award when you aren't a tier one college recruit ultimately comes down to what you do in the playoffs and specifically the State Finals. The true football nerds on here respected Dixon and knew he had a career yard per carry that was almost unprecedented... but nothing bolstered Dixon's case more than winning two rings and going off in both of those games. I still insist I don't even think he wins it in 2021 if he didn't put arguably the greatest single State Finals performance by a RB in the history of KY Football. When Dixon ran for 376 yards with 5 TD's against Tilghman and put Belfry on his back for a comeback victory he caught everyone's attention and became sort of a sentimental pick. That day I think Dixon not only locked up all the EKY votes, but probably all the WKY votes as well. If Robbins can lead Murray to a title and force people to take notice and fall in love with him he has a shot. Some of these rural paper voters would rather cast their lot with the sentimental favorite over the "next in line" at one of the state's biggest powerhouses... but you have to give them a reason to do it and not just vote for their local legend they otherwise plan to.

@Watusi Did you know Murray’s Head Coach is former Matewan star Melvin Cunningham? I honestly did not know this until just a week or two ago.

Respect what has been built at Hart County. This is not the same team they have had the past few years though. They will certainly compete but Glasgow seams to be a step above. I'll take the Scotties by 2-3 Scores.

Yoak is a tough nosed back. East Carter is starting to become a factory for these type of physical backs who run downhill and always fall forward. He should break 4,000 career rushing yards next week and is a strong candidate to reach the exclusive 5,000 yard club.

Bell County does have a very good team. They return the vast majority of their team from a squad who went 11-2 last year with a hard fought loss to LexCath in Round 3. Blake Burnett is a dangerous QB in Dudley's system and they have the power running game that he is accustomed to. With that said, I haven't seen enough from Bell County to anoint them as a Top 15 team in the State. They have feasted on a bunch of bottom tier larger class schools and their only quality team they defeated was punching down in class to beat 1A Campbellsville in a tight game in the season opener. I may be wrong but I don't see a huge delta between Bell County and Rockcastle County. I wouldn't put Rockcastle in the Top 25 teams in the State.. I would probably put Bell and Rock closer to the 30-35 range.

I think 2A is more winnable for Belfry than 3A simply because CAL is not in 2A. I would take CAL to win the State Title in every class except 6A this year. They are just next level. With that said, if Belfry were in 3A right now they would probably be the 2nd ranked team as opposed to the 5th ranked team in 2A. The ironic part is I think Belfry "potentially" has an easier path to the Finals in 2A despite that. If they can avoid that 3rd Round game with Beechwood you have to like your chances against the other Eastern Semi-State teams not from Fort Mitchell. In 3A you would have Bell County and LexCath in your Semi-State... then several very good teams in Rockcastle County, Bourbon County, Lloyd Memorial, Lawrence County, Russell, and East Carter. I would take all these "very good" teams over Pburg and Breathitt County head to head.

Going to try the Belfry to Mayfield path... Belfry to Union County actually has far less Kentucky Counties because a good part of it is driving on I-64 in Indiana. Belfry to Mayfield Counties (24): Pike Floyd Magoffin Morgan Wolfe Powell Clark Fayette Woodford Anderson Mercer Washington Nelson Hardin Grayson Butler (barely) Ohio Muhlenberg Hopkins Caldwell Lyon Livingston Marshall Graves Belfry to Union County Kentucky Counties (15): Pike Floyd Magoffin Morgan Wolfe Powell Clark Fayette Scott Woodford Franklin Shelby Jefferson Henderson Union

What Belfry put on film Friday is the best Christmas gift Raceland could have asked for. Now Coach Mac is elite for a reason... I am sure Pikeville will also self scout what was exposed and make vast improvements... but it is very clear that Belfry at the very least gave the current blueprint of how to take away the deep passing game that Pikeville absolutely leaned into to defeat the Rams.

To add to it... Beechwood's biggest enemy right now is their loss to a CovCath team who may very well win the State Title. If CCH catches two more losses to Highlands and Cathedral, IN you will be shocked at how criminally low their (CovCath's) RPI will be. Out of State losses are RPI suicide. Belfry at least is sporting a loss to a Johnson Central team that has a chance to be a RPI darling if they can finish 10-0 by beating Corbin and Ashland. Wasn't the entire point of the RPI encouraging teams to schedule up and encouraging teams to carry the Kentucky flag against competition around the country?

Beechwood and Belfry rest safely in the East. RPI will be huge. I expect Belfry to finish 9-1 and I expect Beechwood to finish 9-1. The wildcard is waiting in District 7 thanks to our wonderful flawed RPI system. If Pburg finishes undefeated (very likely) then they could be a problem. Beechwood plays a bunch of 6A teams so I could see them having the edge on the 2-seed and maybe have enough bonus points to overtake an undefeated Pburg who will only have likely one win over a larger class school (3A Estill County). Belfry and Beechwood will need to hope the CPU math favors them because their district won't be doing them any favors whereas Pburg's district may be surprisingly higher in the RPI. I think Belfry and Beechwood would sign up to play at Pburg over drawing each other in Round 3. If that happens and Pburg avoids either that means they likely get a team like Breathitt County in a game very other 2A team in the State wishes they were playing instead. Out West it is even more convoluted. LCA is already drawing the short straw with three losses. Mayfield, OCath, & Somerset all are teams I would be a bit surprised if they aren't sitting at 9-1 also when the season plays out. For this I think Coach Oakley Watkins might as well put a deposit down on a charter bus because LCA is about to do some travelling and having a game against either OCath or Mayfield on the road is a pretty safe assumption. Somerset doesn't have a lot of RPI meat on the bone, Southwestern may only win one game and their other wins won't be big class jumpers. South Laurel is a good quality loss but if South takes it on the chin to Pulaski and North they may be closer to LCA than the other two. Mayfield and OCath will be tight in RPI. Long story short... Prestonsburg may end up being the RPI smoking gun case study if they end up in the Semi-Finals hosting while arguably two if not three Top 25 regardless of class teams are sitting on their couches after challenging themselves with their schedules and catching a lone loss as a result.

1996 they hosted I believe. That was a tough nosed team. https://khsaa.org/football/1996/fb3a1996.htm They lost to South Laurel in a game I thought they should have won. I remember there were back to back years Belfry played them early in the season and Knott gave them all they wanted to the surprise of the Belfry folks. That was prime Coach Cobb proving he could coach.

The cradle of Commonwealth Coaches... Knott County Central LOL

Lowkey important game here. Knott County is undefeated and Martin County has turned it around after a disappointing season opener against a strong Lawrence County team. Prestonsburg appears to be the top team in that District so this may ultimately determine which team hosts a playoff game and which team has to hit the road. On the flip side.. one question potentially worth asking is which playoff path is better? If you are the 3-seed you may have to go on the road but the 2-seed in the opposing district will be a very winnable game then you will get your District foe in a rematch. Earning the 2-seed does ensure a strong chance of a Round 1 victory, but Belfry looms in Round 2.

It was a Line of Scrimmage exposure more than a run game exposure, IMHO. Johnson Central has a very, very good Oline and whipped the Maroons in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Though South Warren plays a completely different scheme I think we see more of the same this week. I will take South Warren by 18-20.

This isn't the stoutest Boyle County we have seen... but you are going to have to score some points to beat them. I don't see Ballard having enough offense to get it done. I will say Boyle 21-7.

Undefeated schools playing mediocre teams will be ranked a lot higher than very strong teams who have taken a loss playing really good schools. LOL Examples: Expect 4A fans to really be upset when Logan County is near the top of the class while a team like an Ashland is in the very middle or even toward the lower half of the class. Franklin County probably will come in either #1 or #2. Expect CovCath to be surprisingly low between having two losses and one of those being an out of state team. Noone in KY would hang their head at losing to Elder by 8 points.. but in the eyes of the RPI it will punish CovCath like they just lost to Jellico, TN. In 1A expect Pikeville to be toward the bottom half of the class. In the eyes of the CPU they have three losses and their lone wins are a 1A team and an out of state team. Meanwhile Covington Holy Cross will probably be a Top 5 team.

I predict CovCath will running clock them. I will say CCH 42-6. Absolute murderous schedule for Central. They are improving but CovCath may be the best team they have faced yet.

A few added thoughts before we put this one in the past. - Thought Belfry showed some excellent Offensive and Defensive Coordination from their staff. Defensively Belfry clearly scouted Pikeville well and saw something they could expose. I am not used to Belfry being an aggressive defense, but they clearly identified taking an aggressive approach with stunts and blitzes would be beneficial and they did that to perfection. Reynolds of Pikeville was running for his life all night. On offense I thought Belfry showed an equal level of aggressiveness. They used the option more in the first couple drives than they had all season, they dialed up a beautiful play action pass on 1st Down at the right time, and they leaned into JB Woolum. At the same time, when it was a critical moment of the game the staff also showed poise to go to classic Haywood "Death By a Thousand Cuts" style and grind the Panthers into hamburger meat with a 17 play drive that broke their spirit and fatigued a Pikeville team that is not particularly deep. - I mentioned it in the Update thread but will say it here, every 1A team in the State will be bending over backwards to get their hands on this film. Belfry just wrote the textbook on how to attack Pikeville. - With that said, Coach Mac is one of the best in the State for a reason. I expect Pikeville to evolve from this game. Belfry essentially said, beat us if you can running, beat us if you can short, you ain't beating us deep. - Belfry's Special Teams were bad, bad. Got to clean that up! Missed FG, Missed XP, two huge returns, and they gave up an onside recovery when everyone East of I-75 knew it was coming.