ATLCat

Final Belfry 47 SV 7

Nice drive by SV against the reserves. End of 3rd Belfry 47 SV 6

Ace Caudill nearly houses the kickoff but is tackled after 75 yards. Eli Caudill scores with the JV offense. Belfry takes a knee on conversion. 47-0 Belfry.

274 yards of offense for Belfry. 80 passing. 194 on the ground. 25 carries for 67 yards for Valley, 0 passing.

Half Belfry 41 SV 0

Ace Caudill 23 yard TD run to start the running clock. Fifth straight running clock game. 41-0 Belfry 2:47 in 2nd.

Cayden Varney continues to absolutely ball out at WR. 38 yard TD reception high pointing the ball and ripping it away from the defender. 34-0 Belfry 6:06 left in 2nd.

42 yard SV FG blocked and Muncy returns it 74 yards for a TD. Belfry 27-0 after kick fails.

End of 1st Belfry 21 SV 0

Tristan Chapman 41 yard TD. Belfry resting Dante Davis again. 21-0 Belfry 1:58 in 1st

First drive ended with a TD pass from Chase to Cayden Varney. Woolum takes the first play of the next drive 74 yards for a TD. 14-0 Belfry in 1st

Belfry up 7-0.

Yoak is aptly named because he like yoaking up to an ox. He just wears you down and the second you miss an assignment he breaks a big one. Russell is going to be RB by committee and lean into Benge when they need that key first down or need that goal line package. Has Benge been banged up this year? His usage numbers have been weird. What Russell does best though is mix in the pass with Frasure and the Pennington connection. I think both teams should be able to sustain success doing what works best, but to me the x-factor is going to be Beason. When you have to devote so much attention and bodies to Yoak, Beason is a dangerous threat to pop a couple big plays. I mentioned my surprise at Benge's usage rate this year... but the other stat that surprised me was the fact East Carter has yet to complete a pass to Yoak or Beason out of the backfield. This has been something EC has utilized a lot under Champlin... they don't really pass to their feature back much but they have always seemingly had that secondary threat who can pop some big plays in the passing game. I am going to make a bold prediction and say Beason hits a big play in the passing game.

I am not sure if Raceland will see Pikeville again but there is a good chance. If that happens I am guessing the game film of what Belfry game-planned against the Panthers is going to be a valuable commodity for the Raceland staff. Pikeville is improving a lot, but I still would take Raceland to win in a re-match after how that first game played out.

Breathitt won't be easy and they can definitely move the ball and score points... but Breathitt has a M.O. and that is a clear vulnerability to teams who can win the LOS and execute fundamentally sound football. Breathitt is very inconsistent and for whatever reason has a bad tendency to lose their composure and make unforced errors more at home then they should. If Russell enters that game healthy I like their chances but the Devils will need to score points consistently.

All things aside, I know Central hasn't been back to the mountain top in a while but I don't think you can put all that on Dantzler. They have had a couple really good teams but just had CAL in their path. Last year they arguably had the 2nd best team in 3A. This year has been disappointing but primarily it is because this is the probably the youngest Central team I have seen. Now if you want to nitpick, when Central is at their best they are leaning into a nasty defense that has size, physicality, speed, and the ability to make you pay for any turnover. When Central is at their best they usually aren't the most impressive team on Offense, but they almost always have a back who can grind you into a pulp 8-10 yards at a time until they pop a couple big runs, then they have a couple WR's who can beat you making plays down the field. Central's defense is probably a year away from looking normal but on Offense this is probably the weakest I have seen them since the early 2000's. They have a couple Sophomores with the ability to hurt you with the ball in their hands but everything else that you identify with Central is kind of missing, especially with their running game. Dantzler's son is a VERY talented Safety who I could see playing at the next level. Will be interesting to see where this all ends up. Remember Dantzler was kind of a surprising hire coming from Louisiana. Personally, if I am Central I think my first phone call is to Atherton's Anthony White. I also have Murray's Melvin Cunningham on speed dial.

Wait.... What?

I watched Martin County's first two games and thought they may be a pretty bad team who happened to have a really good QB and really good two way RB/LB. They have really improved a good bit since Week 1 and although I think Pburg is the better all-around team it wouldn't shock me to see Martin County ride Maynard like Tim Tebow to an upset. At the end of the day, Martin County's Achilles' heel is they are very slow. Big, strong, and two really good players... but as a team they are very heavy footed. Pburg has their own flaws but they do have good quickness and guys who fly to the ball on defense. I think this one if close but I think Pburg just has too much ability to make plays. Pburg 32 Martin County 20

Sorry DMC... But self serving bias runs thicker than admiration! Go Raiders! Go RPI points for Belfry! EC by 2. Landon Yoak falls forward into the endzone for the win.

Ashland has speed and size on defense. This usually gives JC's offense problems when you have both. Belfry had speed but they didn't have size. Pulaski had size but they didn't have speed. Madison Central gave the JC offense fits because they have a good mix. Ultimately it comes down to can JC win the initial LOS surge and get their guards to the second level. When JC is "good" on the line then this is tough... when JC is "excellent" on the line then it gives them the upper hand. I am leaning that this JC team is closer to excellent than good. I'll take the Golden Eagles by 2-3 TD's but stranger things have happened when these two get together.

Plus it is worth noting that as long as they stay in this 6 team District it is highly likely they get 3 wins each year minimum and 4 wins being likely. Walton-Verona is nowhere near the same level as a program as they were under Coach Barth 5-6 years ago. St. Henry has a chance to make headway in the future but it will probably take some time. Owen and Gallatin will be vulnerable every year. As long as Bracken continues to schedule the way they have trended toward scheduling I would think 5-6 wins is pretty likely even in a bridge year.

Probably not Mr. Football note-worthy, but you will be hard pressed to find a duo with a better efficiency rating than Cayden Varney and JB Woolum of Belfry. JB Woolum 42 carries, 528 yards, 8 TD's (12.5 yards per carry, a TD every 5.25 carries) 11 reception, 322 yards, 3 TD's (29.3 per reception, a TD every 3.7 catches) Cayden Varney 8 catches, 283 yards, 5 TD's (35.4 per reception, a TD every 1.6 catches) As a tandem, here is their offensive efficiency 18.57 yards per touch, a TD every 3.8 touches! As a bonus, these two have also combined for 6 INT's and and a pair of Kick Return TD's as well. What if I told you it gets even better? Since the Johnson Central game that efficiency looks like 27 touches, 682 yards, 12 TD's for an average of 25.3 per touch and a TD every 2.25 touches... crazy numbers over a 4-game stretch.

Every little bit counts when it is going to be as tight as this appears to be coming down to. The amplifier of the multiplier for class jump though is applied to the WP and this is what is being missed I think. Any win Campbell County gets essentially has more of an impact than a loss obviously. This either increases or best maintain their Opponent Value. When you apply the 6A play up multiplier to the win outcome that is then multiplied by the opponent value it has an amplification that makes it significant. On the flip side that is a multiplied value that gets left off the table. Campbell County beating Great Crossing isn’t going to be the magic number by itself, but when you add Dixie beating Boone, Simon Kenton beating Great Crossing and Conner, now you have four wins that could have been losses that all get amplified. The multiplier is necessary. Look at the 6A RPI values top to bottom and compare them to 1A. If you only look at the RPI rating it would have Simon Kenton as the #16 team in Class 1A. That bonus multiplier does a whole lot of work. KCD is not the #1 team in KY regardless of Class even though they have the highest RPI value.

It seems the logical path, but statistically by limiting the number of calculations and results you open the RPI to having more variance and inaccuracy. "In Theory" any time you have a CPU based formula you want as many results as you can get to make it better. Now am I sitting here saying that by adding in two results playing the worst teams on your schedule it makes the RPI better... personally speaking I am not... but this would be the argument to be made that 8 results to judge off is not as accurate as 10 results. Only read ahead if you are good with conjecture as well.... (I am not sure the KHSAA also would be too excited when their entire structure to sports and scheduling is based off a District System and this becomes a smoking gun showing how flawed that system is when 95% of the playoff teams who even get the RPI applied to them are disqualifying two district results every single time)

Here is my controversial solution... - I think every team has to count three District wins at most. All losses must be counted as one of those three results and once you lose a District game you lose the ability to replace any wins. In other words if you don't go undefeated in District play your District wins all count toward your RPI. - For those undefeated in a five team district you can replace your weakest District Win if you win four games by duplicating your 2nd best District win. You also have the choice to replicate your weakest Non-District result in it's place. - For those undefeated in a Six Team District the same rule applies except using the same results you can choose to replicate the 2nd best District win or replicating the same weakest Non-District result for both games. - In this example, Beechwood could replace Owen County and Gallatin County by replicating their Bracken County win or they could choose to replace both by replicating their class drop win over NewCath, whichever number is highest. Belfry could replace East Ridge with Shelby Valley potentially or they could choose to replace East Ridge with a class jump win over 5A Southwestern who only wins 1 game. Mayfield can drop Todd County and either replace it with Caldwell County or replace it with a class jump win over 3A Central. - For a team like Breathitt County who gets a four team District they don't get this luxury. All three wins have to stand which puts pressure on them to ramp up their non-district schedule. In other words, if you are lucky enough to be in 4-team District the responsibility falls on your shoulder for not taking advantage of this when you schedule.