ATLCat

It definitely will move the RPI but it will be extremely minimal impact. If anyone looked this morning as predicted Beechwood has inched ahead of Belfry after last night by a whopping .00445 points but still trail Mayfield by .00903 with most of Beechwood's heavy lifting done. Entering tonight Mayfield leads Belfry by .01348. Belfry and Mayfield's heavy lifting is left to do tonight. Simply put, if either team loses (not likely) then they will fall behind the other two. I don't see a path where Beechwood passes Mayfield at this point outside of Mayfield losing. Mayfield has too many teams playing each other that Mayfield has already played. Ultimately, Belfry and Mayfield's District foes both have key games that could make an impact. It's almost mirror image situations. Crittenden and Todd Central have winnable 3A games, Pike Central has a winnable 3A game and Betsy Layne plays a winnable 2A game. I don't see Shelby Valley beating 5A Harlan County, East Ridge should win but they are playing a bad 1A Harlan Independent team so don't expect any help from that result, I don't expect Caldwell to beat Murray. If Belfry beats a 3A LCC team with a solid RPI and Pikeville beats Bracken County I expect Belfry to pull ahead of Beechwood. If Mayfield wins against 3A Central and McCracken County defeats Graves County it will be tough for Belfry to pass Mayfield (but it will be very, very close). Belfry will gain more beating LCC than Mayfield gains beating Central, but that 6A win over McCracken keeps acting as Mayfield's sail. Long story short, I don't think Belfry passes Mayfield unless Belfry gets unexpected help from their district mates winning while Mayfield's lose.. or East Carter has to pull an unexpected upset. If Pikeville beats Bracken County I don't think Beechwood can finish ahead of Belfry, let alone Mayfield.

Rounds 1 and 2 are still against the partner district. There is no RPI component the first two rounds. Good ole 1 seed vs 4 seed and 2 seed vs 3 seed. Beechwood will get the winner of the opposing District’s 2 vs. Beechwood’s 3.

I literally thought about posting, "Not sure who is who on the Beechwood staff but my prediction is they have someone deserving". I think Hergott may be THE name to best fit this question.

Not sure if Tony Burchett is still coaching at Johnson Central but he was always a legendary assistant. Oakley Watkins was the shining example of this distinction but he took over as LCA's Head Coach so he doesn't count anymore. A name way off the radar most don't know is Joe Stanley the O.C. at Martin County. Tremendous football mind and what he has done with the talent to work with is very impressive.

I would absolutely love for a Belfry/Mayfield game and it needs to happen. Ideally I would love to see it in Lexington for a State Title. Neither team should have to make that drive though. This is shining example #1 that a neutral site is needed for the Semi-Finals. Find a stadium in Louisville and let these two duke it out instead of forcing a team to load up for a 7 hour bus trip.

Way too early to project until the RPI sorts out so we know the Round 3 matchups. Here's all we can go off for now for some semblance of prediction: 1A- West should have Campbellsville, KCD, NewCath, and Cov Holy Cross playing in Round 3 East should have Raceland, Sayre, Pikeville, and the winner of Hazard vs. Middlesboro in Round 3. 2A- West should have Ocath, Mayfield, LCA, and the winner of Danville/Somerset playing in Round 3. East should have Beechwood, Belfry, Pburg, and Breathitt playing in Round 3. 3A- West should have Murray, CAL, LexCath, and the Glasgow/Union County winner playing in Round 3. East should have Bell County, Lloyd Memorial, the winner of Rockcaslte/Lawrence, and the winner of Bourbon/Russell playing in Round 3. 4A- West should have Tilghman, Franklin County, the winner of North Oldham/Spencer Co, and the winner of Logan County/Etown playing in Round 3. East should have Highlands, Boyle, Corbin, and the winner of Johnson Central/CovCath playing in Round 3. 5A- West should have Owensboro, Atherton, Bowling Green, and Fairdale playing in Round 3. East is a wildcard. No clue what to expect. I could see 8-9 teams reach the Final 4. 6A- West should have St. X, South Warren, the Male/Manual winner, and the McCracken/Henderson winner playing in Round 3. East should have Trinity, Ryle, Frederick Douglass, and Madison Central playing in Round 3.

I don't like Pulaski County at the L.O.S. They got absolutely bullied in their two losses. Is Bell County on the level of Johnson Central or South Warren? Unless you are the KSR rankings committee then the answer is a resounding "no", but they should still have the upper hand in this game. I like Bell by 12-14 in a game that is competitive throughout.

I agree on the District thing as well. I think I proposed a few pages back that my way to solve this would be that every team has to carry thee district results. If you lose then every district loss must be carried. For undefeated teams you carry your top three District results. For teams in a 5 team district that are undefeated you can replace your lowest district result with either replicating your lowest non-district score (could be a loss) or duplicating your second best District win. For teams in six team Districts you can repeat this process for your two lowest scores. In other words, if you are Beechwood you can drop Owen County and Gallatin County and then choose to either replace them with the Walton-Verona win or let's say their loss to CovCath is the the lowest non-district result but the value of that result is better than the W-V result then they could use that instead.

I just think the RPI could very easily be tweaked and improved. Just account better for out of state competition and then give a very basic "strength of result" component where it is so basic it doesn't allow initiative to run up a score. You do those two basic things and it goes from a flawed system to at least a functional system. You make that tweak to the RPI and then require neutral sites for the Semi-Finals and this system is immediately much better. No team in KY should have to travel 5 hours for a playoff game simply because a computer formula suggests one team is a tenth of a point better with no direct head to head comparison.

Poster above did a good job, but my .02. "Most likely" Pburg should get the 3rd seed in the East. I don't see them losing in Round 2 so they will be in the 3rd Round where they will get whoever finishes lower between Belfry and Beechwood. I had not watched extensive Pburg action until the other night when they had a truly great and exciting game with Martin County. My thoughts on Pburg going into the game: - Beat up on a really weak schedule - Going to have some playmakers and good speed at the skill spots but probably undersized on the line. - Good experience but they haven't played but maybe one or two quality teams. - Porous defense. They gave up a ton of points to Betsy Layne who is very average on Offense if we are being generous. My thoughts after the game: - Schedule is still really weak but I saw grit and competitiveness. Martin County out-schemed them and controlled the pace but Pburg was resilient and took the game when it was in doubt. - They have three guys most every small school in KY would love to have Runyon, Hatfield, and of course Patton. Those guys are ballers and were all over the field. They also all three stepped up with huge plays everytime Pburg needed it. - Their OLine shocked me with their size. Not an elite blocking team, but they have size and they move well. Not just a bunch of guys with bellies,, they have athletic big linemen. - Martin County is not a bad team and really impressed me from when I had seen them before. This qas a quality win on the road for Pburg. They still have not seen anything remotely close to what the top 5 teams in 2A bring to the table. I used this analogy elsewhere, but that Martin County game was the equivalent of an early undercard fight on a UFC card where two young fighters go toe to toe landing haymakers. It is the best fight of the night and lots of fun... but if those guys fought one of the best fighters in their weight class they would be outclassed and instead of going toe to toe they would probably be pounded on the mat. - The defense has playmakers but they are really going to struggle to keep any of the top 5 from scoring at will.

I think this just speaks more about Stoney more than anything. It is really hard maintaining long term success at rural County schools, especially where agriculture is so important. Talent pool will be pretty predictable. You have to really get complete buy in at the feeder/volunteer level so that you maximize that talent by the time it gets to High School and then at the High School level you have to develop/develop/develop. I always thought (and continue to think) that Stonebreaker was just very good at sort of simplifying things so the controllable were controllable, on the field, and purely speculating here, off the field as well. His staff clearly trust in him, he seems to keep everything positive but never gets over his skis emotionally or over complicating play calls, they seemingly schedule smart but rarely flashy, and above all else I always got the impression that there was a culture of taking pride in their work for all people involved in the program. I think at places like Casey County it starts and ends with buy-in. A lot of these kids and families in these rural agriculture areas have pressure to be prioritize work that supports the family. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that, but it means it is a tough job for a Coach to connect the dots of the external values of sports and why that time investment is worth it. I can't say for sure, but I would venture to guess Stonebreaker is very good at that. Every time I have watched a Stonebreaker team on video I always have the same though, including this year. "They don't do anything eye opening, but they look like they are confident in what they are doing." I think there is a beauty in that and you can apply that beyond just the play calling and execution.

I love it though! I like the swagger they have. It is a double edged sword because it would make me worried that if you catch the wrong team on the wrong night you could lose to someone less talented... but this also may be the key to a truly memorable run. I kind of subscribe to the theory of being more aggressive at the lower level of HS football so I am on board with that kind of stuff. Dictate the pace and disrupt.

I am starting to like Lloyd more and more in the East to get to the Semi-Finals. Now here is what I will say though in terms of Round 3 matchups... if Bell gets enough of a RPI boost to move ahead of Lloyd this does set up something interesting. Lawrence County is an intriguing matchup for Lloyd's defense. I think Lloyd will score points on them, but Lawrence County is a tricky team to defend. Fetherolf is extremely accurate at passing and then Bulldogs have some big play ability at WR (specifically the Johnson kid). I actually think the best case scenario for Lloyd is pulling for Rockcastle County to upset the Bulldogs. I think Lloyd matches up extremely well with Rockcastle who desperately needs their running game to open up the pass. Am I saying Lawrence County will beat Lloyd? Not at all. I am not convinced Lawrence County can stop any quality offense. Just Lawrence has sneaky efficiency and balance on offense and truth be told may be better served throwing the ball more that game.

East relies very heavy on their run game. Yoak is a bellcow back and then they work Beason in. They are plenty capable throwing the ball and do some RPO stuff, but almost everything in their passing game is predicated on Yoak keeping the chains moving and having to commit Safeties because he is so dangerous at breaking tackles. I will say Yoak is a different back than what you have seen. He is an absolute load and is very patient as well. I still think Lloyd gets enough stops though and I am not sure East is capable of holding Lloyd under 28 points.

East Carter has a really good RB in Yoak but their defense leaves a lot to be desired. EC can 100% beat Lloyd, but I think more has to go right for them to beat Lloyd than the other way around. It will be a good game but I definitely lean toward the Juggs. Seems like Lloyd has a swagger to them this year.

Central doesn't have enough offense to win. The Yellowjackets might actually be able to at least make Mayfield break a sweat and play into the 2nd Half. That's kind of been Central's M.O. this year.. even playing some of the elite teams they have played they were hanging around until the 2nd Half but just never had the offense to keep up and then their depth wears out. The Dantzler drama may be an interesting dynamic. Could see that going either way. Could see Central being motivated to give a tribute to their Coach but most likely I could see Central also just being demoralized after such a long bus ride and without their HC. The biggest fear I have if I am a Mayfield fan is the one thing you can rest assured of is that Central will hit you on defense and they have enough speed to always force cutbacks or catch you with good pursuit (prime ankle or lower leg risk territory). Mayfield needs to avoid an injury in this game that may be a big problem in three weeks. Get the cushion needed that Central can't come back then lean into your defense while getting some of your best offensive weapons off the field as soon as possible.

Corbin game I think they had all three just for that game.

Johnson Central vs. CovCath is going to be "must watch" Football. It's not often that you get two teams in the 2nd Round playing that you legitimately could see win the State Title. This is the best JC team since Matney. They are very good at the LOS and have three really good backs. Their defense is starting to click as well. I know I wouldn't want to face them. In the words of Roy D. Mercer, "you better pack a lunch" when playing JC this year. They are going to battle you, hit you, and try to make you uncomfortable all game.

Southwestern is one to keep an eye on I would think. I think the natives are a bit restless there and the Warriors may be on the way to a hard luck 1-win season but even worse I don't think their fans feel they have a bumper crop of talent waiting to emerge in the underclassmen ranks. Here is the path they are on now: 2022- Started 13-0 before losing in the Semi-Finals. 2023- Respectable 9-4 losing in the Region Finals. 2024- Notable step back to 7-6 but still reached the Regional Finals. 2025- Staring down 1-9 if they lose to Rockcastle County. I could see one more year as this is a team heavy with Juniors, but their offense has really struggled to find an identity and their defense does have several Seniors and has struggled most of the season. With the schedule they play and their District mates all seemingly either surging or sustaining I would probably expect another losing record in 2026.

My "throw spaghetti at the wall" percentage chances by seeds of the District Winners. 1 Seed OCath -95% LCA- 5% 2 Seed LCA- 80% OCath-5% Mayfield- 5% Belfry- 5% Beechwood- 5% 3 Seed Mayfield- 35% Belfry- 25% Beechwood- 25% LCA-15% 4 Seed Belfry- 35% Beechwood- 35% Mayfield- 30% 5 Seed Belfry- 35% Beechwood- 35% Mayfield 30% 6 Seed Pburg- 50% Somerset- 35% Breathitt- 15% 7 Seed Somerset- 55% Pburg- 25% Breathitt- 20% 8 Seed Breathitt- 65% Pburg- 25% Somerset- 10% One Final Note: Beechwood's resume won't be 100% complete, but it will be about 90% complete going into the Friday games. Most of their big ticket games will be played Thursday night whereas Belfry and Mayfield primarily see their key games played the next night. Beechwood's rating won't be expected to improve much after Friday's games and should give us a good idea of the lay of the land. If Beechwood is trialing Mayfield or neck and neck with Belfry after Thursday it won't bode well for the Tigers' ability to pass those teams.

Alright so here we are... final week: First to recap last week. It was a key week for Belfry and Mayfield. Mayfield's week went well. 6A McCracken County got a big win over Henderson and 5A Graves County picked up another win. If Belfry wanted any chance at the 2 seed they needed big help. East Carter losing to Russell basically took that off the table. I said that Belfry would jump Danville and they did, but the bigger picture was could Belfry get neck and neck with Mayfield or even jump them. With Mayfield getting the wins they needed and East Carter losing it puts Belfry in a situation where they will probably need some help to pass Mayfield. Beechwood needed that Campbell County win the maximize the value of their final game and needed any win from they could get from teams they have played. This was kind of a lull week for Beechwood but they are exactly where they want to be staring down a 6A game with Campbell County who now is one win better. As previously mentioned, OCath is basically locked at the 1. LCA is not locked at the 2 but any path for Mayfield or anyone else passing them will require an unexpected outcome from the teams that LCA has lost to. LCA close with a weak 6A team but that is a huge RPI hurdle Belfry and Mayfield probably cannot pick up ground on. The race between Mayfield, Belfry, Beechwood will be very tight. Too close to call tight (especially between Beechwood/Belfry). This week's key games: 1. Campbell County at Beechwood- Beechwood should win this game, but this is the Tigers' last big move on the chess board. Mayfield and Belfry has 3A opponents to end, so as long as Beechwood wins they will gain ground on both. The question I cannot answer is will it be enough? 2. PRP at LCA- The one win Panthers should be no match for LCA, but despite playing a struggling team this one will have a significant RPI boost based off the class multiplier and make it very difficult for the other 2A teams (most notable Mayfield) to catch LCA without some help. 3. Bracken County at Pikeville- I hinted before and now it is hear. On the surface this is a game most will overlook but this could be the difference in seeding for Belfry and Beechwood. Pikeville (a Belfry win) continues to rise in RPI value and Bracken County is a head to head win of Beechwood's. If Pikeville wins then not only does this help Belfry but it will hurt Beechwood. As close as this race is, this may be a key game. 4. Belfry at Letcher Central- Belfry will be a noted favorite, but remember this game was much tighter than expected last year and not decided until late in the 4th. With Belfry and Mayfield having a mutual foe in Mayfield's last game (Central) this is a chance for Belfry to pick up some ground on Mayfield and at the same time limit ground loss when Beechwood beats Campbell County. 5. Central at Mayfield- Mayfield should be able to handle a Central team who is a bit anemic on Offense, but this is a must win game. A couple things add to the mystique here. First of all Belfry has already beat Central so if Mayfield were to lose this would be undoubtedly enough for Belfry to leapfrog the Cardinals and also probably Beechwood as well. Secondly, Central has an unexpected drama with their Coach leaving. Can they rally for an upset? Doubtful, but this isn't some no name team you can just expect to show up and beat. Wildcard Games- These are games where we can probably feel confident who the winner will be, but the other team at least has a chance for an upset that we have seen in these final week games when Halloween makes spooky things happen: Russell at Breathitt County- I don't think Breathitt can pass Pburg, and even then I don't think it even matters big picture... but Breathitt has a chance for a really nice RPI score to end the year Pburg does not have. Raceland at East Carter- East Carter got clubbed by Russell and everyone expected that to be the more winnable game, but playing at home and playing for their pride could give them a chance in a game that would help Belfry. Southwestern at Rockcastle County- Southwestern has been very competitive against some 5A teams expected to beat them handily. Rockcastle is a step down in class but not in competition, but the Rockets would certainly be a nice OWP and OOWP score for Belfry if Southwestern finds a win. Cooper at Simon Kenton/Dixie Heights at Ryle- We can say the same about either game. Would be a completely surprising result, but either result being an upset would definitely help Beechwood. Leslie County at Betsy Layne/Pike Central at Powell County- Not a big difference maker, but both of these games are winnable games for the District 8 team that could be fractional decimal points that Belfry could use. Grant County at Walton-Verona- Little sneaky wildcard here as W-V plays a vulnerable 4A team. Beechwood's district foes also have some prime opportunities for wins, but the majority of their games will be "play down" games against 1A teams, meanwhile Bracken County and St. Henry have tough tests they aren't expected to win. A win by W-V would be a decent little bump to their RPI rating and help Beechwood. Crittenden County at Hopkins Central/Webster County at Todd Central- Similar to above, Mayfield's district foes aren't likely to help much as Caldwell will be a huge underdog to Murray (other than boosting OOWP), but the good news is two teams play up in class against bad 3A teams and could help find those decimal points Mayfield needs to help hold off Belfry/Beechwood.

No chance in Round 3. None. LCA is in the West. The only chance would be in the Semi-Finals.

Don’t even think about any team from the Western side until the Semi Finals. Round three will only be against an Eastern team and as long as Belfry and Beechwood are the top two RPI teams in the East they will not play and both will be hosting. Semi Finals is when it doesn’t matter if you are East or West and everyone is seeded. Most likely scenario will be Beechwood will be on the road in the Semi Finals. I don’t see Beechwood passing Mayfield which means as long as OCath wins against Somerset then Beechwood will be traveling to either OCath or whoever wins the LCA/Mayfield game. The only real scenario where Belfry and Beechwood play would probably need a Somerset/Danville upset of OCath in Round 3. Then there would be a pretty strong chance Belfry and Beechwood play in the Semi’s in that case.

Not likely. They should avoid each other Round 3. in the Semi Finals it’s possible but not likely. I would say Beechwood and Belfry playing any time besides the Finals is one of the least likely scenarios.

Very thin chance but better chance than Belfry and Beechwood. LCA ends with a 6A winnable game. Mayfield will need some results from LCA’s opponents no one is expecting.