ATLCat

RPI Games to Track this Week: Not a lot of watershed games between evenly matched teams. Very slight slate across the state due to Fall break. Obviously, if there were major upsets noone sees coming it would be have a substantial impact (think Central vs. CAL), but I am focusing solely on games expected to be tight. One school though will have potentially their second consecutive week of major scoreboard watching. This is a massive week for Beechwood again. The following three are all big, in fact three of the four biggest RPI games to watch are all on Beechwood's watch. In fact if I added another game to the list it would probably be Newport vs. NewCath... in other words.. HUGE week for Beechwood potentially. (Thurs) Conner @ Dixie Heights- Beechwood needs any 6A win they can get from Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton, and Campbell County. A lot of the remaining wins will be cannibalism of each other.. this is one they need Dixie to pull off. Great Crossing @ Simon Kenton- See above. Beechwood really needs a SK win as Great Crossing is definitely a winnable game. Cathedral, IN @ CovCath- Perhaps the single most important game for Beechwood the remainder of the year (Campbell County is huge but Beechwood will be expected to win big). Cathedral is very good and plays very good teams... but in the eyes of the RPI they are very average and play very average teams. A loss basically cements CovCath as a "bad loss" in comparison to the losses of the other top 2A teams expected barring a major upset down the stretch. Throw in Highlands vs. Elder as a tagalong to this game. Now that CCH lost to Highlands if the Birds lose to Elder it will only hurt this result more for Beechwood. South Laurel @ Pulaski County- Somerset's lone loss is to South Laurel and the Briarjumpers are chasing the field pretty heavy right now in terms of RPI. They really need South Laurel to beat Pulaski. With really only one "play up" win (Southwestern), their best loss could potentially be one of their best hopes to scoring points. It is looking very likely Somerset will be the lowest seeded District winner in the West which likely means guaranteed travel Rounds 3 & 4. Ashland @ Boyd County- This one matters more for the OOWP but a couple teams have a stake here. Belfry has some OOWP crossover as their best win East Carter beat Boyd County playing up and their best loss Johnson Central has already beat Boyd and is yet to play Ashland. LCA has an OOWP tie-in directly to Ashland via LexCath in the final game of the year. As long as Johnson Central beats Ashland the Pirates should be ok, but the ideal situation is Boyd County upsets Ashland as this will help Belfry while hurting LCA.

So thoughts after this week: 1. First and foremost I want to re-establish I do NOT like the RPI, personally. I could actually live with the RPI for what the KHSAA is using it for.. but I think the way they are calculating it is flawed and frankly a bit lazy. That's my official stance. With that said, some things I am noting below could easily mis-construed as RPI defense, that is not my intent. my intent is to only speak in actualities. 2. Reading comments above and in other threads, it is clear some people still aren't getting the RPI. This is not a ranking system like you are used to. This is a rating system. Comments like "I don't know why so and so is ranked ahead of..." This is not what the RPI ever was. It is a computer formula with no bias, no added logic, no sense of injuries, and no sense of the past. To put it as blunt as possible, the goal of the RPI is to take the formula the KHSAA has seen fit to determine the strength of a teams schedule and results to come up with a rating system to reflect that. 3. Beechwood had an important RPI week and unfortunately it went almost as badly as it could for them. They were forced to play a low RPI District foe, CovCath (See previously for discussion) continued to be a RPI Case Study by losing a heartbreaker to Highlands, both of their key 6A wins took losses, and even though NewCath gave them some help by beating 6A Campbell County, it may work against them in the end. Assuming Beechwood beats Campbell County, you want your 6A teams to win as many games as possible because of the bonus points Beechwood gets from beating a 6A team is amplified with each win. Since Beechwood will have wins over 1A NewCath and 6A Campbell County, it would have actually been much better long term for Campbell to have won that for Beechwood to maximize points. 4. Mayfield's move surprised me a little. It primarily was the product of most of the top 2A teams playing weaker district foes whereas the RPI though Caldwell was a decent win. The two other big factors is Mayfield's loss to Tilghman was fortified by Tilghman getting a big win improving both the OWP and OOWP. RPI also really liked McCracken County getting a win over Hopkinsville and likes McCracken County as a big 6A win for the Cards. 5. Prestonsburg made a big move by beating Knott Central. Don't expect that to stay as strong of a result. Knott will see their RPI go down by playing two weak district teams and they also don't have a tenth game yet. If they don't find a game not having ten results is brutal in the RPI. 6. LCA with a big move. Similar to Mayfield, WEB Dubois was a better RPI win than the other top teams. Keep an eye on LCA. LCA is already getting big CPU points from playing up in wins and their lossses are all USDA Prime and the teams they lost to keep winning. LCA has a chance to finish strong as well. if Danville keeps winning that will be a huge RPI score to beat them, and even though PRP is pretty weak.. any 6A win is a good win if you are a 2A team. 7. Belfry with a BYE this week. Will be interesting to see what that does to them. Belfry right now is the biggest fan of East Carter you will find. They really need East Carter to beat Russell and Raceland for a chance at the 2nd seed. Johnson Central should stay a very high quality loss for them.. but Belfry doesn't have the 5A & 6A games that other teams have. The good news for Belfry is Letcher Central should win the next two games and be a chance for a good little RPI score to end the season. Belfry still has two RPI dogs to hurt them before that.

For those wondering about forfeits, straight from the KHSAA calculation page Due to the limited number of contests for football compared to the other sports and the fact that football is divided into classes, and as the KHSAA office maintains the official district standings, there are additional clarifications and operations in football that are not necessary for other sports, as follows: A team is eligible to play 10 contests during the 11-week season; All games played, including forfeits, count as normal with RPI; A seeded district or contracted game unable to be played without forfeit attribution will be decided by comparative RPI following the last regular-season game; What does it mean? I am not sure LOL... but it does appear that even if Fort Knox forfeits there will be a win result calculated in some fashion.

Corbin takes the lead with their third unanswered TD. 28-22 Corbin leads.

CovCath played their hearts out. Lorenzen making such a clutch and tough catch to be the star for Highlands may be my favorite storyline of the year though. Amazing game between two very good teams.

3:51 in 3rd still 22-21.

Love this storyline!!!!

Now 22-21 JC after Corbin scores again.

22-14 JC early in 3rd.

22-7 JC Around a minute until the Half.

15-7 JC now

One note on East Ridge: East Ridge played an offensive style that is best described as a rugby scrum. Super close splits on the line with no WR's. Fullhouse backfield. A mix of lots of misdirection or delayed QB runs using those backs as extra blockers. Their goal being to milk every second off the clock and stringing together First Downs 3 yards at a time over four downs and then popping a long run with Johnson if someone misses a tackle or assignment. They actually did a pretty solid job of it and kept Belfry's offense on the sidelines most of the First Half. It was 7-0 at the end of the 1st Quarter with Belfry only touching the ball essentially one possession. It would not surprise me to see East Ridge win the 2nd Seed in the District and host a 1st Round playoff game and play a team they can compete with in Round 1 (Knott Central probably). If East Ridge leans into this offense it gives them a chance at least. Painful to watch, but if executed right it can be effective against most 2A teams in Eastern KY this year.

Few quick notes to wrap this one up: - Another efficient Belfry performance. Four scores that involved either one or no offensive plays. Belfry had three drives that they scored a TD on their first play and then had a Cayden Varney kickoff return on an onside kick to open the 2nd Half for a TD. - Speaking of Cayden Varney, he has been playing at a very high level lately. He played excellent coverage against Pikeville in helping shut down their passing attack. In the three other games he has scored a TD in each game and has scored twice the past two weeks. - Belfry FB/LB Dante Davis got dinged up after a carry. Did not appear to be too severe but he is the one guy Belfry cannot lose right now after they already lost JJ Austin for the season. Hopefully with the BYE and a couple more lighter contested games he can get back to 100% before playoffs. - JB Woolum is dynamic if he can get to full speed. He had two more TD's last night. I want to say he now has 10 TD's on the season on like 50 total touches. - My favorite takeaway of the game was the way the Belfry reserves played! The reserves faced the East Ridge Varsity Offense three times and turned them over on downs twice. The Belfry reserves put together scoring drives against the East Ridge Varsity Defense both times they had the ball. - Nice gesture by East Ridge to open the game. Much like Pikeville they opened in the flexbone set and took a delay of game penalty to honor Coach Haywood. Belfry declined the penalty. - For the jersey fans on here, Belfry unveiled a new kit last night for Homecoming! Anthracite tops with red sleeves with the skull & crossbone with red pants. See what you think.. I thought they looked sharp as an alternate jersey.

Final Belfry 56 East Ridge 7

56-0 Belfry 5:25 on running clock

The JV of th JV also gets a Fourth Down stop. Belfry with the ball and may be the last possession of the game.

About to be the 4th Quarter Belfry JV turns East Ridge over on downs then drives it down for a score 49-0 Belfry

East Ridge attempts an onside kick to open the 2nd Half but Cayden Varney snatches it and then returns it for a TD instead. 42-0 Belfry

Half 35-0 Belfry’s third 1-play scoring drive. East Ridge has been content milling clock. Time of possession disparity would be hilarious in this one.

1:48 in 2nd Belfry 28-0

One thing to add... To show how finicky these things are... I think Beechwood also has a very realistic path to the 2nd seed. If CovCath beats Highlands then that will certainly help to buoy CC's resume even if they lose to Cathedral. More importantly, all those 6A teams that Beechwood beat and Campbell County remaining are potential game changers if they can find some wins down the stretch. Beechwood got a big bonus bump jumping 4 classes. Those teams will be beating up on each other which doesn't necessarily help a ton, but if they all can find some wins against teams like Great Crossing, Boone County, and Simon Kenton then this could really have a big amplification effect. NewCath hasn't helped Beechwood yet. It was a play down win and they are losing often. NewCath should string together a handful of wins so their rating isn't as bad of a win. What will not help Beechwood is their District may have the lowest value of all the 2A District right now. Belfry has a weak district slate ahead as well. OCath's isn't anything special either but Hancock County does help them more than Belfry and Beechwood's running mates.

Fun idea! I know which ones won't be close,, but picking the close one is a challenge. Judging off common opponents and the same common win I will say Shelby Valley vs. Pike Central.

Trying to keep it under a 1000 words for everyone LOL Everything counts in the RPI. It is a blind CPU with no bias. It is a collection of formulas with no bias, no application of conventional logic, and no investigation beyond the results. There are three primary parts to the RPI formula that ultimately is weighted as "win or loss" WP is the biggest factor and weighted the heaviest- Essentially the school's direct result of their game. Did they win or did they lose? Additionally there are weighting factors applied if you played down or up in Class. The RPI is win heavy. In this case CovCath was a loss. How the RPI weights that loss matters if you compare it to how it weights the loss of other 2A teams. OWP then basically takes every team you play and apply what their opponents do. Essentially how many wins and bonus point for playing up does the teams they played amplify the result OOWP then takes all those 2nd level opponents and amplifies and refines it a little more. So the case of CovCath. A great team to the naked eye and a great team to the logical fan. The KHSAA only views them as a collection of results and mathematical functions. CovCath is the one "blemish" on Beechwood's statistical formula. All the other top 5 2A teams will all also have likely one blemish (LCA probably will have three blemishes). The RPI's major flaw is it is painfully a face value calculation of out of state opponents. To the RPI Computer every out of state opponent is a .500 winning percentage team who only has played .500 winning percentage teams who have only played.500 winning percentage teams. CovCath already has lost to an Elder team that is better in every metric than what the RPI views them. CovCath has to still play Cathedral who is an even potentially more drastic example if CCH loses. So essentially each time CCH loses to these out of state teams it amplifies that one blemish on Beechwood's resume. It also has a negative bearing on any team counting CovCath in their calculation that beechwood has also played. If CCH loses to Highlands it hurts as well, but not nearly as painful as an out of state loss. To answer your other question.. it is going to be very difficult for Beechwood and Belfry to fall to where they will be paired in the 3rd Round. That's good news for both. If both win out as expected of course. With that said, all five teams are going to be very thinly separated by RPI if they win out. With such a close calculation it will be a thin line between being a Top 2 seed or a seed who will need to make a long Semi-Final trip somewhere to play a great team. Will one CovCath result be the defining factor? Doubtful, ultimately who you beat is the bigger key... but if the RPI sees Belfry (Johnson Central), Mayfield (Tilghman), OCath (Owensboro), and Beechwood (CCH) and views their wins very similarly then the difference between each of those losses may make a difference and right now all those losses have a strong chance to finish at a very high value. CCH is a loss that has the chance for a vulnerability to be really mis-judged by the CPU. Shew... done.. HAHA. I ain't even getting started on how LCA still has a chance to make a move up despite their three losses.

One game won't... but when it is your only loss and everyone else only has one loss as well it definitely gets amplified more. Everyone is going to be pretty tight on their 9 wins.

LOL I got a mental image of Ballard's student section chanting at Evangel Christian or DeSales in a basketball game.