January 17, 201214 yr That is encouraging for Romney. The independents will factor in the general election big time. Last Gallup poll I saw he led Obama with them. Which is in my opinion the only way a R can beat Obama: get the support of the independents. If Romney wins the primary, he'll need the social conservatives to vote against Obama. I continue to believe Romney beating Obama is very doable. There is little chance any other R can do so.
January 17, 201214 yr Which is in my opinion the only way a R can beat Obama: get the support of the independents. If Romney wins the primary, he'll need the social conservatives to vote against Obama. I continue to believe Romney beating Obama is very doable. There is little chance any other R can do so. I agree. Romney is the only GOP candidate that can get a good share of the independent vote. But he still needs the conservative base vote, and I think in the end he will get it. The thought of 4 more years of Obama will do it. Romney will get votes of people who are for him, and he will get votes cast his way for those that are voting against Obama.
January 17, 201214 yr It's looking more and more like Obama vs. Robamaney. That will be an interesting race. I have said all along that Robamaney is the only Republican that can beat Obama.
January 17, 201214 yr I agree. Romney is the only GOP candidate that can get a good share of the independent vote. But he still needs the conservative base vote, and I think in the end he will get it. The thought of 4 more years of Obama will do it. Romney will get votes of people who are for him, and he will get votes cast his way for those that are voting against Obama. He'll get the conservative base vote, the question is how big that vote will be if they're not enthusiastic about him. Will they bother to come out?
January 17, 201214 yr I can see Gingrich making another surge. I wouldn't agree Romney already has this in his pocket. Gingrich's last few debate performances have been impressive and if he can swing the momentum Saturday and continue on to Florida I think he will have another jump in national polls. IMO, he is too smart to count out. Plus, his buddy is a billionaire.
January 17, 201214 yr He'll get the conservative base vote, the question is how big that vote will be if they're not enthusiastic about him. Will they bother to come out? If he ends up being the nominee, the conservative base better "come out" for him if they are seriously concerned about Obama being re-elected. I don't see the GOP not supporting their nominee and enduring four more years of Obama. I could be very wrong though.
January 17, 201214 yr Author I can see Gingrich making another surge. I wouldn't agree Romney already has this in his pocket. Gingrich's last few debate performances have been impressive and if he can swing the momentum Saturday and continue on to Florida I think he will have another jump in national polls. IMO, he is too smart to count out. Plus, his buddy is a billionaire. I think Newt's chances are sinking faster than the Titanic....Dude has made a complete fool out of himself over the past couple weeks. He's turning off quite a few of those who were previously in his corner.
January 17, 201214 yr I think Newt's chances are sinking faster than the Titanic....Dude has made a complete fool out of himself over the past couple weeks. He's turning off quite a few of those who were previously in his corner. Are you talking about his attacks on Romney? I didn't get the impression Gingrich was attacking Capitalism like the Romney camp suggested. The dude is extremely intelligent and his ideas are well formulated. If it's 1v1, Gingrich versus any of the candidates in that format, including Obama, he would beat them down over a period of time. That is, in a debate setting. I always enjoy listening to a historian speak.
January 17, 201214 yr Author Are you talking about his attacks on Romney? I didn't get the impression Gingrich was attacking Capitalism like the Romney camp suggested. The dude is extremely intelligent and his ideas are well formulated. If it's 1v1, Gingrich versus any of the candidates in that format, including Obama, he would beat them down over a period of time. That is, in a debate setting. I always enjoy listening to a historian speak. Yep. He and Perry have been attacking a pretty fundamental conservative principal. You (used generally, not you) can try to spin it anyway you want, at the end of the day it's an attack that you would expect from the Democratic candidate, not fellow Republican/conservatives. I know of 5-6 voters who were firmly in Newt's corner as of a week ago and have since decided to support Romney simply because of his idiotic attacks.
January 17, 201214 yr Are you talking about his attacks on Romney? I didn't get the impression Gingrich was attacking Capitalism like the Romney camp suggested. The dude is extremely intelligent and his ideas are well formulated. If it's 1v1, Gingrich versus any of the candidates in that format, including Obama, he would beat them down over a period of time. That is, in a debate setting. I always enjoy listening to a historian speak. Personally, I like Newt. The problem with him is he is the "smartest guy in the room" and knows it and is strongly disliked because of it. He is the only guy that can realistically make a push, but I am not seeing how anyone is going to be able to win if Romney takes South Carolina. He is up double digits now, and short of some huge final surge by Newt to catch him (moreso it would have to be something Romney does to damage himself), I think this thing is all but over. Anyone else watch the debate last night?
January 17, 201214 yr Yep. He and Perry have been attacking a pretty fundamental conservative principal. You (used generally, not you) can try to spin it anyway you want, at the end of the day it's an attack that you would expect from the Democratic candidate, not fellow Republican/conservatives. I know of 5-6 voters who were firmly in Newt's corner as of a week ago and have since decided to support Romney simply because of his idiotic attacks. Yes, from a popularity standpoint it was idiotic. However, if his attacks were taken out-of-context who are the idiots? The people who believe he is attacking Capitalism, or Gingrich for playing the same game that ruined him in Iowa? I have yet to see how Gingrich attacked capitalism other than the spin the Romney camp put on it. It makes me question what the Republicans are paying attention to. Nonetheless, he has lost support because of these careless attacks and should think before he speaks. But I do not think he is finished quite yet. He has a lot of financial backing.
January 17, 201214 yr Personally, I like Newt. The problem with him is he is the "smartest guy in the room" and knows it and is strongly disliked because of it. He is the only guy that can realistically make a push, but I am not seeing how anyone is going to be able to win if Romney takes South Carolina. He is up double digits now, and short of some huge final surge by Newt to catch him (moreso it would have to be something Romney does to damage himself), I think this thing is all but over. Anyone else watch the debate last night? I thought Santorum was a ghost last night. Rick Perry continues to improve his debating skills. Paul was booed for saying we should treat other countries the way we want to be treated (The Golden Rule). Romney, IMO, didn't have a "bad" performance but didn't live up to the front-runner standard. I thought Newt had some very intriguing ideas involving investment that I had never heard him mention before. He came off relatively strong. He also had the only standing ovation from the entire crowd.
January 18, 201214 yr Author In the latest Ohio Polls, primary not held until March 6th, Romney has an 11 point lead over the closest competitor, Rick Santorum. He is also in a hypothetical general election statistical tie in Ohio with President Obama. This notion that Romney has no chance against President Obama is insane.
January 18, 201214 yr I thought Santorum was a ghost last night. Rick Perry continues to improve his debating skills. Paul was booed for saying we should treat other countries the way we want to be treated (The Golden Rule). Romney, IMO, didn't have a "bad" performance but didn't live up to the front-runner standard. I thought Newt had some very intriguing ideas involving investment that I had never heard him mention before. He came off relatively strong. He also had the only standing ovation from the entire crowd. On this, I agree with Paul 100%. And I can't figure out why any American would feel otherwise.
January 18, 201214 yr How do "values" voters who support Newt rationalize the fact that his wife was his mistress for years? Even James Dobson brought it up this week.
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