Braves down 3-0 early. Why do I bother even looking at the score?

Both of these races are going to be tied going into the final day barring some unbelievable collapse by the Cards. The Braves have been alone in the Wild Card lead since June 20th until now. 3 months, blow it at the end.

It's really pathetic how bad the Braves are right now. What's even more pathetic is that Fredi decided to start Derek Lowe tonight.

How in the world did I miss the fact that the season ends on Wednesday this season instead of the normal Sunday?

 

I am with you. I don't ever remember a season ending in the middle of the week.

^That being said, I think the Yankees make out their lineups the next two games with one thought in mind - how do we best get ready for the playoffs? If someone could use a day or two off, then so be it. If I want to hold back one of my pitchers so he will be my game one starter in the playoffs, then I do it. Winning these next two games means nothing to the Yankees. They are all about getting ready for the playoffs.

 

Exactly. That fact means they aren't putting as much into the games as the Rays will be. Just the way it is. It has nothing to do with them tanking it to knock Boston out of the post-season.

For the numbers nerds like me, an excellent blog called Beyond the Box Score has done a rudimentary calculation of probabilities that this bizarre September could actually happen.

 

Fun With Probabilities

 

For anyone not interested in actually reading...

 

Chance that a team playing .610 ball (Red Sox) could go 14-23 to end the season while a .541 team (Rays) could go 23-15 in the same span: 0.078%

Chance that a team playing .598 ball (Braves) could win only 10 or fewer of 28 while a .519 team (Cardinals) winning 20 or more of 29: 0.038%

 

The methodology wasn't perfect, but it is revealing for how crazy it is for two meltdowns to combine with simultaneous charges like this to create an incredible late playoff race. Considering those two numbers, what are the odds for two roughly .600 teams, one in each league, to collapse down the stretch while two teams not too far above .500 make a charge like that in the final month?

 

... I need a calculator...

Yankees must not be playing anyone tonight, as some places are have not even put a line on that game yet.

Exactly. That fact means they aren't putting as much into the games as the Rays will be. Just the way it is. It has nothing to do with them tanking it to knock Boston out of the post-season.

 

The Yankees actually put their best lineup on the field last night, so no one can say they tanked.

The Yankees actually put their best lineup on the field last night, so no one can say they tanked.

 

Yet tonight the Yanks are starting a guy they called up on September 9th who's pitched all of 0.2 innings giving up 2 earned runs (27.0 ERA) against David Price. Girardi must think he's due.

The Yankees have been running out 3-4 reserves/minor leaguers each night for the past week or so. Really puts a huge dent in your theory VOR. :lol:

You can't even bet the game in Vegas. That should tell you all you need to know.

The Yankees have been running out 3-4 reserves/minor leaguers each night for the past week or so. Really puts a huge dent in your theory VOR. :lol:

 

I don't think that is true. I just looked at the last two weeks of the Yankees lineups and there is little change in what they are doing each game. I see one or two guys getting rested, not 3-4. As to tonight's pitcher, if you were the Yankees, who would you start tonight? The playoffs start in a couple days. Of course there is no line on the game because the Yankees aren't playing to win tonight. They are playing to win in the playoffs.

I don't think that is true. I just looked at the last two weeks of the Yankees lineups and there is little change in what they are doing each game. I see one or two guys getting rested, not 3-4. As to tonight's pitcher, if you were the Yankees, who would you start tonight? The playoffs start in a couple days. Of course there is no line on the game because the Yankees aren't playing to win tonight. They are playing to win in the playoffs.

 

Posada, Nunez, and Pena last night?

 

It was even worse the night before if I recall correctly.

 

I'm sure the lineup tonight is going to be filled with stars.....in AAA.

I don't have any complaint with how the Yankees are handling things down the stretch. On Friday, with bad weather looming Brian Cashman came to Francona and Epstein and asked them how they wanted to handle starting the game. He said that he knew that the Red Sox had much more to play for than the Yankees and that Jon Lester was slated to start Friday night. He let the Sox make the call on whether to try and start the game and potentially have it washed out after a couple of innings thus burning one of Lester's starts or playing a double header on Sunday. If the Yankees had any intentions of sabotaging the Red Sox they would not have done that.

Posada, Nunez, and Pena last night?

 

It was even worse the night before if I recall correctly.

 

I'm sure the lineup tonight is going to be filled with stars.....in AAA.

This is easily avoidable. Don't suck an entire month.