Highlands will have a lot more trouble in 4A than they have the past 4 years in 5A. They have not had to compete with Boyle County, Bell County, and Lexington Catholic during the past 4 years. Those 3 are the teams that had given them the most trouble while in 4 classes. Highlands has had exceptional teams the past few years, but the 5A playoffs have not offered them much competition. Bell County, LexCath and Boyle County will offer a much tougher road to the State Championship for the 'Birds.

 

Since they will be using the average of the previous two school years, if they go with the recommended 1A and 6A with 32 teams and the rest divided amongst 2A-5A, Bell County would be 3A if I'm not mistaken...that's unless they ask to play up.

Since they will be using the average of the previous two school years, if they go with the recommended 1A and 6A with 32 teams and the rest divided amongst 2A-5A, Bell County would be 3A if I'm not mistaken...that's unless they ask to play up.

I hope Coach Dudley does move up, it would make 4a probably the most competitive class with Highlands, Lex Cath, Johnson Central, Boyle,CovCath, and Lone Oak.

I hope Coach Dudley does move up, it would make 4a probably the most competitive class with Highlands, Lex Cath, Johnson Central, Boyle,CovCath, and Lone Oak.

 

 

Please don't take offense to this cause I'm only playing Devil's Advocate in asking in that situation, do you ask to play up and have a shot a winning a state title every so often OR play in your correct class and have a better chance to win state every year? I think its a hard choice to make and would have to be discussed for a while.

Please don't take offense to this cause I'm only playing Devil's Advocate in asking in that situation, do you ask to play up and have a shot a winning a state title every so often OR play in your correct class and have a better chance to win state every year? I think its a hard choice to make and would have to be discussed for a while.

 

I understand the question. But I'm pretty sure that the request to play up is generally based on some kind of hardship (typically geographical). Not the kind of hardship that comes with having tough competition in your "correct" class.

 

An interesting ethical dilemma.

Read where new re-align will be based on 08-09/09-10 averages. So here they are in order from top-down (includes consolidated McCracken Co., takes out soon-to-split Nelson Co., Shelby Co., and Greenwood).

 

08-09 09-10 2yr Avg

1 X 1451 1456 1453.5

2 T 1334 1381 1357.5

3 Scott 1104 1142 1123

4 HClay 1111 1122 1116.5

5 Eastern 1116 1113 1114.5

6 PLD 1082 1073 1077.5

7 Hend 991 1028 1009.5

8 McCracken ? ? ?

9 Laf 1001 991 996

10 PRP 932 949 940.5

11 BS 876 945 910.5

12 MadCent 878 888 883

13 CHardin 870 869 869.5

14 Daviess 855 849 852

15 GRC 847 855 851

16 TC 859 833 846

17 Seneca 832 819 825.5

18 Male 819 831 825

19 Ballard 791 840 815.5

20 Manual 821 804 812.5

21 SK 787 798 792.5

22 Boone 788 793 790.5

23 Meade 780 778 779

24 Ryle 755 786 770.5

25 Butler 762 769 765.5

26 Campbell 753 739 746

27 Marshall 754 720 737

28 Oldham 741 730 735.5

29 Muhlenb 730 731 730.5

30 Southern 702 723 712.5

31 Dixie 697 722 709.5

32 FernCrk 707 704 705.5

To make eight 4-team districts based on GEOGRAPHY:

 

Dist1 (Far West): McCracken Co., Marshall Co., Muhlenberg Co., Henderson Co.

 

Dist2 (West Central): Daviess Co. (farthest east of western 6A schools), Meade Co., Central Hardin, PRP (farthest west of Louisville schools)

 

Dist3 (West and South of Louisville): Butler, Male, Southern, Fern Creek

 

Dist4 (Louisville Inside Watterson): Manual, St. Xavier, Trinity, Seneca (just outside Watterson, but one school is needed to make four-team district and Seneca is geographically closer to M, T, and X than Ballard or Eastern).

 

Dist5 (East and North of Louisville): Eastern, Ballard, Oldham Co., Ryle

 

Dist6 (Northern): Boone Co., Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton, Campbell Co.

 

Dist7 (Lexington North/West and West Suburbs): Scott Co., Dunbar, Lafayette, Bryan Station

 

Dist8 (Lexington East and East/South Suburbs): Henry Clay, Tates Creek, Madison Central, Clark Co.

^ Manual, St. X and Trinity in the same District may be a pipe dream.

Coach J,

 

I would switch Butler (inside the Watterson) with Seneca (outside).

Coach J,

 

I would switch Butler (inside the Watterson) with Seneca (outside).

 

I'd leave them the same. Distance wise Seneca to all 3 other schools. makes more sense than Butler, despite the inside/outside the Watterson scenario.

 

I'd switch Male and Manual, though.

Read where new re-align will be based on 08-09/09-10 averages. So here they are in order from top-down (includes consolidated McCracken Co., takes out soon-to-split Nelson Co., Shelby Co., and Greenwood).

 

08-09 09-10 2yr Avg

1 X 1451 1456 1453.5

2 T 1334 1381 1357.5

3 Scott 1104 1142 1123

4 HClay 1111 1122 1116.5

5 Eastern 1116 1113 1114.5

6 PLD 1082 1073 1077.5

7 Hend 991 1028 1009.5

8 McCracken ? ? ?

9 Laf 1001 991 996

10 PRP 932 949 940.5

11 BS 876 945 910.5

12 MadCent 878 888 883

13 CHardin 870 869 869.5

14 Daviess 855 849 852

15 GRC 847 855 851

16 TC 859 833 846

17 Seneca 832 819 825.5

18 Male 819 831 825

19 Ballard 791 840 815.5

20 Manual 821 804 812.5

21 SK 787 798 792.5

22 Boone 788 793 790.5

23 Meade 780 778 779

24 Ryle 755 786 770.5

25 Butler 762 769 765.5

26 Campbell 753 739 746

27 Marshall 754 720 737

28 Oldham 741 730 735.5

29 Muhlenb 730 731 730.5

30 Southern 702 723 712.5

31 Dixie 697 722 709.5

32 FernCrk 707 704 705.5

My figures have the new McCracken county at around 701 based on the figures from the local newspaper..That means there is a chance that they will be 5A..

My figures have the new McCracken county at around 701 based on the figures from the local newspaper..That means there is a chance that they will be 5A..

The enrollment figures the KHSAA uses is based on four grades ... McCracken will be up around 1000 with that figure. There is no way McCracken will be anything but 6A.

My figures have the new McCracken county at around 701 based on the figures from the local newspaper..That means there is a chance that they will be 5A..

 

Are those figures based on the number that will be within the actual school building itself, which I believe is only housing grades 10-12? If so, I could possibly see your number being accurate, though even then, I don't think they are. The 3 grades that would currently be 10-12 at a consolidated school are still over 800 students. Which really wouldn't matter, since grade 9 would factor in as well.

 

In the 09/10 enrollment, Lone Oak had 485 males, Heath had 325, and Reidland had 253. Combine Lone Oak and Heath alone and you have a 6A school, before even touching Reidland which will put them way over the top. Even going by the Ad Hoc numbers (which I disagree with using since 08/09 will be irrelevant by that time), the smallest possible 4A school (which Lone Oak is nowhere near - they're one of the largest) has a 415 average. The smallest possible 2A school (which Reidland is in the bottom third but still about 15 schools above) has a 200 average. For the purposes of this example, we'll continue to call Heath 2A, though they will actually be 3A in the new alignment. 415 + 200 + 200 at the minimum numbers is still 815 and well above 6A level. I don't know what numbers the paper was putting up, but I don't see how a 4A and two (current) 2A schools could combine and expect to be anything other than 6A.

To make eight 4-team districts based on GEOGRAPHY:

 

Dist1 (Far West): McCracken Co., Marshall Co., Muhlenberg Co., Henderson Co.

 

Dist2 (West Central): Daviess Co. (farthest east of western 6A schools), Meade Co., Central Hardin, PRP (farthest west of Louisville schools)

 

Dist3 (West and South of Louisville): Butler, Male, Southern, Fern Creek

 

Dist4 (Louisville Inside Watterson): Manual, St. Xavier, Trinity, Seneca (just outside Watterson, but one school is needed to make four-team district and Seneca is geographically closer to M, T, and X than Ballard or Eastern).

 

Dist5 (East and North of Louisville): Eastern, Ballard, Oldham Co., Ryle

 

Dist6 (Northern): Boone Co., Dixie Heights, Simon Kenton, Campbell Co.

 

Dist7 (Lexington North/West and West Suburbs): Scott Co., Dunbar, Lafayette, Bryan Station

 

Dist8 (Lexington East and East/South Suburbs): Henry Clay, Tates Creek, Madison Central, Clark Co.

 

I'd switch St X and Male and maybe Manual and Fern Creek. It offers more competitive balance and the geography isn't much different. If they adopted this alignment folks at Ballard and Eastern would throw a party.

I'd switch St X and Male and maybe Manual and Fern Creek. It offers more competitive balance and the geography isn't much different. If they adopted this alignment folks at Ballard and Eastern would throw a party.

 

Now, alum; you know me better than to suggest such a thing just because it would be in our best interest!

 

Seriously, I really did the breakdown I did based wholly on what the KHSAA says is its main determining factor when making districts: GEOGRAPHY. I sketched it all out with a map of the state (and even invoked mapquest to determine which 'outside of Watterson' school would be closest to those inside the Watterson). I tried not to be 'fuzzy' at all when determining who should be where -- things like 'competitive balance' or 'traditional rivalries' or any other such NON-GEOGRAPHICAL factors.

 

I defer to Terp in not knowing Butler was actually INSIDE the Watterson (turtles/tortoises are legendary for their incredible intelligence/wisdom!) But I also can see Rockmom's logic in keeping Seneca due to travel distance and not the arbitrary "inside/outside Watterson" application. For that matter, MALE may, in fact, be closer to the 3 inside-the-watterson schools than either Seneca or Butler.

 

As to 'throwing a party,' while it's obvious it would be nicer for us year to year not to have to play arguably one of the four best football programs PERENNIALLY in the state to get through the region every year (something the KHSAA acknowledged should not have to happen in the way they bowed to the Western Ky. superintendents by instituting rotating district vs. district playoffs year-to-year), it's not like us or Eastern would be the automatic district-winner/runner-up each year. Ryle is a potential POWERHOUSE -- small-colllege-like facilities, northern-Ky kids (generally tougher and bigger than rest of Ky), etc. and Oldham County has been one of the scary teams in 5A since Matt Brown took over (just ask Scott County). Their potential for GROWTH may make them the largest school in that potential district in only a few years (school just underwent renovation last year and plans to build "East Oldham HS" were put on back-burner).

 

I too, doubt this scenario will happen. Geography and statements that 'competitive balance is not a factor' will lose out to dollars in the end I am sure and though they are two of the closest schools in the entire class (only 5.84 miles separate them), the KHSAA will NOT put them in the same district. After all, that would make for a Trinity vs. St. X REGIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP virtually every year and THEY would get to split that gate every year (hmmmm, maybe THEY should push the KHSAA to make this happen?).

 

Despite all of this, I personally think if they were willing to 'mix up' the playoffs yearly to appease the Western Ky. superintendents, it would only be right to mix up who has to compete against them district-wise in LOUISVILLE as well year after year.

Here's my mockup based on the 09/10 enrollment only, which we know will be a component of the process. I have Highlands and CovCath remaining in their natural 4A enrollment, though there is a 5A NKY district they'd fit into as well. I have Russellville moving up to 3A as they do now, and move a team down into 1A to compensate, which I think the KHSAA would have to do to maintain at least 4 teams per district. The west in 4A would become a real issue in 2012 (and is not ideal now) when Lone Oak is gone, and 2A District 1 would be a team short as well. McCracken County will probably be a 6A school at that point. Nelson County is due to split the same year, so the balance in 6A will be maintained, with one team moving in, one team out. I'm sure it's not perfect, but really, nothing will be given the lack of teams in areas of certain classes. The number you see next to each team is their enrollment, which I believe I have correct this time (no doubling as I mistakenly did before). Without further ado, for your perusal and debate:

 

6A

District 1

Daviess County 849

Henderson County 1028

Marshall County 720

Muhlenberg County 731

 

District 2

Central Hardin 869

Meade County 778

Nelson County 720

North Hardin 709

 

District 3

Butler 769

DuPont Manual 804

PRP 949

St. Xavier 1456

 

District 4

Ballard 840

Male 831

Seneca 819

Southern 723

 

District 5

Eastern 1113

Oldham County 730

Simon Kenton 798

Trinity (Louisville) 1381

 

District 6

Boone County 793

Campbell County 739

Dixie Heights 722

Ryle 786

 

District 7

Bryan Station 945

Lafayette 991

Paul Laurence Dunbar 1073

Scott County 1142

 

District 8

George Rogers Clark 855

Henry Clay 1122

Madison Central 888

Tates Creek 833

 

5A

District 1

Apollo 683

Christian County 672

Graves County 700

Hopkinsville 524

Madisonville-North Hopkins 522

Owensboro 514

 

District 2

Barren County 660

Bowling Green 545

Greenwood 903

Logan County 590

Ohio County 571

 

District 3

Bullitt Central 649

Bullitt East 611

Grayson County 666

John Hardin 610

North Bullitt 637

 

District 4

Anderson County 613

Fairdale 540

Fern Creek 704

Iroquois 668

Jeffersontown 619

 

District 5

Conner 636

Grant County 559

South Oldham 601

Scott 556

 

District 6

East Jessamine 549

Franklin County 536

Montgomery County 643

West Jessamine 530

Woodford County 613

 

District 7

Lincoln County 576

Madison Southern 534

Pulaski County 642

Southwestern 573

 

District 8

Harlan County 620

North Laurel 689

Perry County Central 525

South Laurel 645

Whitley County 620

 

4A

District 1

Calloway County 494

Franklin-Simpson 437

Hopkins County Central 508

Lone Oak 485

 

District 2

Allen County-Scottsville 454

Russell County 436

Warren Central 492

Warren East 463

 

District 3

Atherton 514

Breckinridge County 446

Doss 481

Valley 458

Waggener 485

Western 462

 

District 4

Martha Layne Collins 476

Moore 440

North Oldham 454

Shelby County 476

Spencer County 465

 

District 5

Cooper 495

Covington Catholic 496

Harrison County 482

Highlands 425

Holmes 425

Pendleton County 464

 

District 6

Boyle County 469

Lexington Catholic 429

Marion County 499

Mercer County 509

Taylor County 442

 

District 7

Clay County 498

Knox Central 501

Letcher County Central 493

Rockcastle County 446

 

District 8

Ashland Blazer 466

Boyd County 440

Greenup County 489

Johnson Central 499

Rowan County 441

 

3A

District 1

Caldwell County 322

Fort Campbell 379

Heath 325

Paducah Tilghman 397

Trigg County 325

Union County 325

 

District 2

Adair County 368

Edmonson County 373

Hart County 366

Monroe County 341

Russellville 167

South Warren 366

 

District 3

Central 376

Elizabethtown 362

Henry County 356

LaRue County 365

Western Hills 382

 

District 4

Bell County 404

Casey County 373

Corbin 388

McCreary Central 417

Wayne County 370

 

District 5

Bourbon County 412

Fleming County 393

Lewis County 378

Mason County 415

 

District 6

Estill County 369

Garrard County 402

Jackson County 334

Powell County 375

 

District 7

East Carter 419

Lawrence County 380

Magoffin County 362

Morgan County 328

 

District 8

Belfry 355

East Ridge 378

Knott County Central 373

Pike County Central 385

Shelby Valley 328

Sheldon Clark 353

 

2A

District 1

Crittenden County 208

Murray 230

Reidland 253

Todd County Central 276

Webster County 320

 

District 2

Butler County 289

Hancock County 244

McLean County 225

Owensboro Catholic 211

 

District 3

Clinton County 210

Glasgow 299

Green County 278

Metcalfe County 239

Somerset 230

 

District 4

Bardstown 303

Danville 277

Fort Knox 226

Lexington Christian 231

Washington County 284

 

District 5

Carroll County 299

Christian Academy-Louisville 309

DeSales 286

Owen County 290

Shawnee 287

Trimble County 231

 

District 6

Gallatin County 250

Holy Cross (Covington) 250

Lloyd Memorial 290

Newport 260

Newport Central Catholic 211

Walton-Verona 243

 

District 7

Bath County 317

Prestonsburg 264

Russell 311

West Carter 322

 

District 8

Allen Central 206

Betsy Layne 213

Breathitt County 265

Leslie County 272

Middlesboro 237

 

1A

District 1

Ballard Memorial 198

Fulton City 73

Fulton County 103

Mayfield 188

 

District 2

Bethlehem 149

Caverna 126

Holy Cross (Louisville) 128

Kentucky Country Day 144

 

District 3

Beechwood 197

Bellevue 121

Dayton 151

Ludlow 148

 

District 4

Bishop Brossart 190

Bracken County 187

Eminence 62

Frankfort 127

 

District 5

Fairview 148

Nicholas County 191

Paris 102

Raceland 155

 

District 6

Berea 178

Campbellsville 146

Lynn Camp 170

Williamsburg 99

 

District 7

Harlan 122

Hazard 143

Jenkins 101

Pineville 106

 

District 8

Paintsville 117

Phelps 157

Pikeville 182

South Floyd 160

 

Nice work!