As of now, American University professor Allan Lichtman's 13 keys formula projects Obama will be re-elected. This formula has been accurate in projecting the popular vote winner in every election since and including 1988 (and including Al Gore's popular vote victory over Bush).

 

http://www.aolnews.com/politics/article/professor-allan-lichtmans-13-keys-predict-obama-will-get-re-elected/19550593

 

"The keys show that elections are not horse races in which candidates surge ahead or fall behind on the campaign trail, with pollsters keeping score," Lichtman said. "Rather, a pragmatic American electorate chooses a president according to the performance of the party holding the White House as measured by the consequential events and episodes of a term -- economic boom and bust, foreign policy successes and failures, social unrest, scandal and policy innovation."

Now you've gone and done it. I can think of several BGPers who just threw up a little bit in their mouths.

Since Lichtman's formula is based heavily on the number of keys are true or false, lets examine is assessment of those keys. From the article:

 

Here's how Lichtman breaks down the keys to Obama's political future:

 

• KEY 1: Party mandate. After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

• KEY 2: Contest. There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)

• KEY 3: Incumbency. The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)

• KEY 4: Third party. There is no significant third-party or independent campaign. (TRUE)

• KEY 5: Short-term economy. The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)

• KEY 6: Long-term economy. Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)

• KEY 7: Policy change. The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)

• KEY 8: Social unrest. There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

• KEY 9: Scandal. The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)

• KEY 10: Foreign/military failure. The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)

• KEY 11: Foreign/military success. The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

• KEY 12: Incumbent charisma. The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

• KEY 13: Challenger charisma: The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

 

I agree with his assessment in Keys 1 to 3 inclusive. Key 4, who knows what will happen between now and 2012 so its a meaningless Key either way at this point. I'd give Key 5 a false at this point. Even if technically not in a recession at this time or during the summer and fall of 2012, if the economy doesn't seriously improve and the debt is signficantly increased, that will be a false in my opinion. If the economy signficantly improves, the voters will "forgive" the increased debt, but if it doesn't, it may be the key that brings President Obama down. I agree with him on Key 6. I agree with his conclusion in Key 7 on Obama making major changes to national policy but I see that being a negative (or false) and not a positive. As to Key 8, too early to tell if there will be social unrest during the fall of 2012. I think the Tea Party already is showing signs of social unrest as is the anti alien movement along the border states. If things don't improve dramatically on many fronts, those movements may erupt between now and 2012.

 

On Key 9 I agree with him. I agree with him on Key 11. I think his True on Key 10 is only a borderline True right now. Afghanistan is a mess. The Israel situation is a mess. Turkey, a long time ally of the West seems to be turning to fundamentalist Islam. N. Korea and Iran seem to be pushing the US. If things go bad on any of those situations or if after we pull out of Iraq and Afghanistan, things go to Hades in a hand basket in those countries, Key 10 will be definitely reversed. Key 12, I probably disagree with him as I think Obama is a fairly charismatic individual. Too early to know if there will be a charismatic or national hero R running against him so that assessment is pretty much a non factor right now also.

 

I realize that Lichtman's formula was based on how he interprets things as they are right now, but I think he's off the mark on some of those assessments as of right now.

 

I'd probably give President Obama 5 Falses as of right now and on two other keys, I'd probably give him a neutral but trending False. Isn't it interesting how different people can assess things so completely differently?

I disagree about number 2. Something tells me Hillary will be stirring in 2011-2012.

I disagree about number 2. Something tells me Hillary will be stirring in 2011-2012.

 

Not if a certain animal group has any say.

Could be a flame out. Economy is still far off.

Recent poll in our household has him trailing in eligible voters 0-3.

Recent poll in our household has him trailing in eligible voters 0-3.

 

Exact opposite in the papa household. I always knew that our votes cancelled out someone else's - just didn't know whose.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_obama_poll

If you remember at this point in his presidency Clinton was arguing that he was still relevant. Republicans took Congress and Clinton took off. Long way to go.

1) Depends on whom the Republicans put forth as their candidate.

2) Bush was primed to be defeated in 2004.

3) Until the Dems put forth Kerry as the candidate.

4) Reps repeat such a nomination and Obama wins hands down.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_obama_poll

 

That article seems to point towards an Obama re-election. His poll numbers are bad but better than the numbers for Democrats or Republicans. I was surprised to see the poll numbers better for the Democratic party than the Republican party.

4) Reps repeat such a nomination and Obama wins hands down.

 

That's a very good point. I'm not sure who is out there on the Republican side that would have mass appeal. The tea party folks have made it tough for a moderate Republican to get much traction overall. But I just can't see a far right-wing Republican winning a national election when a sizable number of the electorate are registered Democrats. Many of those Democrats will vote for a moderate Republican, but it will be hard to get them to vote for a Tea Party Favorite.

That's a very good point. I'm not sure who is out there on the Republican side that would have mass appeal. The tea party folks have made it tough for a moderate Republican to get much traction overall. But I just can't see a far right-wing Republican winning a national election when a sizable number of the electorate are registered Democrats. Many of those Democrats will vote for a moderate Republican, but it will be hard to get them to vote for a Tea Party Favorite.

 

That was the argument last time=John McCain. No thanks.

That was the argument last time=John McCain. No thanks.

 

But then McCain went and picked the right wing Sarah Palin. I pray that she is the nominee in 12