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12th Region Off-Season Discussion (2025-2026)

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3 hours ago, LethalPG said:

For interested parties, the region’s All A draw took place today at the AD’s meeting.  The tournament is Jan. 5th-9th at DCA. 
Top of Bracket: Somerset VS. Burgin, with winner playing DCA in Semis. 

Bottom of Bracket: Danville vs. TCA, with winner playing Somerset Christian in Semis. 

Based on last year's performance as well as who the teams have returning it should be either Somerset or DCA.

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  • Mercer, DCA, Boyle, Mercer, Boyle

  • PurplePride92
    PurplePride92

    Will do.    Steve has forgotten more basketball than you’ll ever know.  I’ve watched him take teams that had low expectations and he turned them into winners.   I’ve watched take team afte

  • BasketballFan24
    BasketballFan24

    If teams stay the same as they ended last season(which we know they won’t), my top 5 would look a little different. The top teams from last year all have major holes to fill. DCA has no one on that ro

Injury news out of Wayne. Edwards will be having surgery on his ACL in the coming days. He apparently injured it during the first football game of the season on Somerset's field while playing Dunbar.

Edwards plays point guard and has started for the Cards since his 8th grade year. Cayleb Rice, who tragically lost his life recently in a single vehicle accident, also played some point last year. 

Tough break for a team already reeling from the worst type of loss.

14 minutes ago, Boyd_Blue said:

Injury news out of Wayne. Edwards will be having surgery on his ACL in the coming days. He apparently injured it during the first football game of the season on Somerset's field while playing Dunbar.

Edwards plays point guard and has started for the Cards since his 8th grade year. Cayleb Rice, who tragically lost his life recently in a single vehicle accident, also played some point last year. 

Tough break for a team already reeling from the worst type of loss.

Terrible break for the kid and team.  

20 minutes ago, 24Rocks said:

Based on last year's performance as well as who the teams have returning it should be either Somerset or DCA.

Yes, I agree.  I think SCS will come out of the bottom portion.

2 hours ago, LethalPG said:

Yes, I agree.  I think SCS will come out of the bottom portion.

They lost 2 good seniors but their shooter, Baker, is back.  They'll be an interesting team, they don't have a lot of depth but they have a good coach in Al Gover.  They could be the kind of team that could sneak up on a few people.

23 hours ago, PurplePride92 said:

Will do. 
 

Steve has forgotten more basketball than you’ll ever know.  I’ve watched him take teams that had low expectations and he turned them into winners.  

I’ve watched take team after team to regional tournaments.  
 

I’ve watched him and Jeff Jackson go toe to toe for years with some top notch 12th Region talent with the main rule being the first one to 50 points wins the game.  
 

I’ve watched him make players out of kids who didn’t know they had it in them to be studs.  
 

I’ve watched him win in the game of basketball for decades even though the game keeps constantly changing around him since the time he began coaching.  
 

Long story short, Steve is and has always been a phenomenal coach whose sole purpose is to put his team in the best position to win the game.  
 

Last thing I’m gonna do is listen to armchair coaches over analyze something they likely don’t know squat about.  

I agree with all that you just said.  But you still haven't answered the question as to why they fouled at the end of the game.  That is the question.  Not if Steve Adams is a good coach (which he is).

22 minutes ago, Joe LeDuc said:

I agree with all that you just said.  But you still haven't answered the question as to why they fouled at the end of the game.  That is the question.  Not if Steve Adams is a good coach (which he is).

Couldn’t tell you.  Wasn’t there and I haven’t specifically discussed this situation with Coach Adams.  
 

I did see someone say that fouling a 65% free throw shooter is a bad idea.  I disagree and I’m guessing that Coach Adams didn’t think it was a bad idea at the time.  I’d definitely think about putting a 65% free throw shooter on the line in a pressure situation.  Folks are more concerned about the decision to put him on the line when the reality of the situation is that the kid stepped up in a big moment and knocked down arguably the most important free throws of his life.  The kid deserves that credit.  
 

I’ve seen 80% free throw shooters miss in those same situations.  
 

Worth a shot.  ??‍♂️

On 9/4/2025 at 7:43 AM, PurplePride92 said:

Couldn’t tell you.  Wasn’t there and I haven’t specifically discussed this situation with Coach Adams.  
 

I did see someone say that fouling a 65% free throw shooter is a bad idea.  I disagree and I’m guessing that Coach Adams didn’t think it was a bad idea at the time.  I’d definitely think about putting a 65% free throw shooter on the line in a pressure situation.  Folks are more concerned about the decision to put him on the line when the reality of the situation is that the kid stepped up in a big moment and knocked down arguably the most important free throws of his life.  The kid deserves that credit.  
 

I’ve seen 80% free throw shooters miss in those same situations.  
 

Worth a shot.  ??‍♂️

This discussion got me interested in what the data says about end of game scenarios.  There's plenty of information out there and the NBA and NCAA have a lot of good data.  It varies from "what actually happened in games" to "given the probabilities of various events what should happen".  

On the high school level we don't have that much detailed data and the shooting isn't as good so it's tough to apply the same metrics.  The simplest way to analyze this situation between WJ and SW is to look at Points Per Possession (PPP).  Both teams were probably in the .90 range in this game.  1.0 PPP is a pretty good goal for a high school team.  If you're not in that range you're not going to beat many people.  A 65% FT shooter going to the line for 2 gives you a probable PPP of 1.3 for that trip.  That's 0.4 PPP more than you'd give up if you simply played solid defense.  As far as I'm concerned choosing a strategy that will probably give my opponent 1.3 points versus 0.9 points doesn't make sense.

On 9/3/2025 at 2:00 PM, LethalPG said:

For interested parties, the region’s All A draw took place today at the AD’s meeting.  The tournament is Jan. 5th-9th at DCA. 
Top of Bracket: Somerset VS. Burgin, with winner playing DCA in Semis. 

Bottom of Bracket: Danville vs. TCA, with winner playing Somerset Christian in Semis. 

Bad draw for Somerset. Good luck beating DCA in there. Tough place to win.

On 9/6/2025 at 10:30 PM, jtb12882 said:

Bad draw for Somerset. Good luck beating DCA in there. Tough place to win.

For sure.  DCA has the advantage.  Should be a great game if any of the recent matchups are any indicator.  Although, the big region games have been the classics. 

On 9/6/2025 at 10:30 PM, jtb12882 said:

Bad draw for Somerset. Good luck beating DCA in there. Tough place to win.

They would have to beat them in the semifinals or finals there anyway. I don't see any of the other 4 teams knocking then off. 

West Jessamine Guard Gavin Murphy picked up an offer from Western Kentucky University. 

On 9/22/2025 at 11:31 AM, Statsdontlie said:

West Jessamine Guard Gavin Murphy picked up an offer from Western Kentucky University. 

Impressive.  Who was the last D1 scholarship player to come out of the 12th region?  Crazy when you look at someone like a Hagan Tyler from Boyle 6'4 guard that averaged 23 a game and went to Campbellsville.  Murphy averaged 9.5 a game and getting a Western offer. 

Hagen Tyler initially signed with Northern Kentucky University before they had a Coaching change.  

3 hours ago, RVaughn said:

Impressive.  Who was the last D1 scholarship player to come out of the 12th region?  Crazy when you look at someone like a Hagan Tyler from Boyle 6'4 guard that averaged 23 a game and went to Campbellsville.  Murphy averaged 9.5 a game and getting a Western offer. 

Trevon Faulkner. Mr. Basketball. NKU.

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