36 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

No one talking about the Bills going for 2 points? It is a big factor in the loss. If the Bills don't go for 2 both times and just kick extra points, the fourth quarter plays out differently.

What were the stats today in both games on teams going for 2 points? Was it 2 out of 5? I think if they ran the numbers in games against top level teams, the success rate is less than 50%. I stand by my opinion that going for two points before the 4th quarter against playoff level defensive teams is almost always the wrong move.

I'm not so sure. If they kick they are still down a point and it doesn't change KC's strategy at all. Nor does it change Buffalo's strategy as they'd need a field at the very least. That's IF they make both kicks. All the other possible outcomes would require multiple things to happen. In a tight game, the ability to tie the game with one option (the two point conversion) gives you a better chance at the end than an option that still leaves you behind. Even in the first quarter, being down 5 or 4 points (if you miss the kick or two point conversion, or make the 1 point) are both worse outcomes than being down 3. Being down three allows you a chance to tie the game with a field goal. Being down 4 or 5 gives you less of margin of error because it forces you to score a touchdown. That's why the "Chart" that everyone refers to says "when down 5, you always go for two". It's not chasing points, it's what improves your chances at that moment of tying or winning the game NOW. And it maximizes your potential to close the gap with just one play while putting more pressure on the other team if successful.

For what it's worth, here's the chart that almost everyone uses. The two columns on the left are for when you're down that number of points, and the right two are when you're ahead

                    Down                                                Ahead

1 point	Go for 2	1 point	Go for 2
2 points	Go for 1	2 points	Go for 2
3 points	Go for 1	3 points	Go for 1
4 points	Go for 2	4 points	Decision
5 points	Go for 2	5 points	Go for 2
6 points	Go for 1	6 points	Go for 1
7 points	Go for 1	7 points	Go for 1
8 points	Go for 1	8 points	Go for 1
9 points	Go for 1	9 points	Go for 2
10 points	Go for 1	10 points	Go for 1
11 points	Go for 1	11 points	Go for 2
12 points	Go for 2	12 points	Go for 2
13 points	Go for 1	13 points	Go for 1
14 points	Go for 1	14 points	Go for 1
15 points	Go for 2	15 points	Go for 1
16 points	Go for 1	16 points	Go for 2
17 points	Go for 1	17 points	Go for 1
18 points	Go for 1	18 points	Go for 1
19 points	Go for 2	19 points	Go for 2
20 points	Go for 1	20 points	Go for 1

Put another way:

Mahomes has played 20 playoff games. 

In 11, he won/never trailed in the 4th quarter.

In 9, he trailed in the 4th quarter & came back to win 6. 

The other 3: 

In 1, he forced OT & never got the ball, in another he forced OT & lost & the other he trailed 31-9.

Not in any way, shape, or form a Chiefs fan.  But man, they just get it done.  It's hard not to admire that.

54 minutes ago, 16thBBall Fan said:

That is true and I was so happy that he didn't, but head-to-head stats he had a higher QB rating, threw for more yards, more touchdowns than Burrow but two big areas that was huge for our Bengals win was Mahomes had 7 sacks for 39 lost yards to only 1 Burrow sack for 7 lost yards and Mahomes had 2 interceptions to only 1 for Burrow.

It took Brady 10 years to get to 17 playoff wins including two years he did not make the playoffs 2008 was due to injury. Brady had 35 playoff wins in his 22-year career and Mahomes has 17 in 7. Brady has had the best career imo of any quarterback for his entire career, but no one has had the numbers and records that Mahomes has put up in their first 7 years in the NFL. I don't like the Chiefs or Mahomes for that matter, but I am objective enough to appreciate greatness.

He has been great in the playoffs. However, you said there is only one game he didn’t come through in. Which isn’t true, since he did lose to the Bengals. Got shutdown basically in the second half, and also got the ball first in Overtime and threw an interception. So while he has been great, he did not come through in that game. 

7 hours ago, Randy Parker said:

Not in any way, shape, or form a Chiefs fan.  But man, they just get it done.  It's hard not to admire that.

This game was a microcosm of the Patrick Mahomes era.   Somebody always finds a way to make a successful play one more time than the opposition.  Whether it’s Mahomes himself or Perrine or Pacheco or the cornerback on the blitz or…

Yes, the Chiefs seem to “get calls.”   But the old school in me believes that you have to step up and simply make a couple more plays along the way. 

53 minutes ago, mcpapa said:

This game was a microcosm of the Patrick Mahomes era.   Somebody always finds a way to make a successful play one more time than the opposition.  Whether it’s Mahomes himself or Perrine or Pacheco or the cornerback on the blitz or…

Yes, the Chiefs seem to “get calls.”   But the old school in me believes that you have to step up and simply make a couple more plays along the way. 

And I think the complaint about them “always getting the calls” comes from the fact that so often, they end up taking advantage of it. All teams get favorable calls… not all of them make the necessary plays afterwards to take advantage.

26 minutes ago, rjs4470 said:

And I think the complaint about them “always getting the calls” comes from the fact that so often, they end up taking advantage of it. All teams get favorable calls… not all of them make the necessary plays afterwards to take advantage.

Precisely.   To some extent, good teams make their own luck. 

And then there’s this.  The Chiefs hadn’t scored 30 points all year.  Until this one. 
 

Just. Stop. Somebody. 

23 minutes ago, mcpapa said:

And then there’s this.  The Chiefs hadn’t scored 30 points all year.  Until this one. 
 

Just. Stop. Somebody. 

My brother and I were talking recently, and he was talking about how silly it was that KC hasn't scored 30 points this season. I replied rhetorically, "If they ever need to score 30, don't you think they will?" We both agreed that if they needed to, they could.

11 hours ago, Randy Parker said:

Not in any way, shape, or form a Chiefs fan.  But man, they just get it done.  It's hard not to admire that.

 

3 hours ago, mcpapa said:

This game was a microcosm of the Patrick Mahomes era.   Somebody always finds a way to make a successful play one more time than the opposition.  Whether it’s Mahomes himself or Perrine or Pacheco or the cornerback on the blitz or…

Yes, the Chiefs seem to “get calls.”   But the old school in me believes that you have to step up and simply make a couple more plays along the way. 

I think a lot of it goes back to Andy Reid unlike a lot of coaches he has the confidence to put the game in Mahomes hands he is not afraid to call pass plays or just let Mahomes make plays. I see a lot of coaches when a first down will win the game just run it 3 times and punt, but the Chiefs will go for the first down. They did it twice last night.

The Bills were averaging almost 5 yards a rush vs. the Chiefs they got the ball back with 3:33 left to play, plus all of their timeouts and the two minute warning and  would not run the ball. The Chiefs to close out the game when they had twice 3rd and 9 they instead of running it threw it both times to pick up first downs and seal the game.

19 hours ago, theguru said:

And a fresh Samaje Perine to close it out. 

Really liked that guy when he was with the Bengals. Never a star...... just a solid role player that championship teams love.

22 minutes ago, 9068 said:

Really liked that guy when he was with the Bengals. Never a star...... just a solid role player that championship teams love.

Right and I will be rooting for him in the Super Bowl, I hope he is the MVP. 

This is pretty fitting. ??

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/18CidP7Wtk/?mibextid=wwXIfr

21 hours ago, rjs4470 said:

I'm not so sure. If they kick they are still down a point and it doesn't change KC's strategy at all. Nor does it change Buffalo's strategy as they'd need a field at the very least. That's IF they make both kicks. All the other possible outcomes would require multiple things to happen. In a tight game, the ability to tie the game with one option (the two point conversion) gives you a better chance at the end than an option that still leaves you behind. Even in the first quarter, being down 5 or 4 points (if you miss the kick or two point conversion, or make the 1 point) are both worse outcomes than being down 3. Being down three allows you a chance to tie the game with a field goal. Being down 4 or 5 gives you less of margin of error because it forces you to score a touchdown. That's why the "Chart" that everyone refers to says "when down 5, you always go for two". It's not chasing points, it's what improves your chances at that moment of tying or winning the game NOW. And it maximizes your potential to close the gap with just one play while putting more pressure on the other team if successful.

For what it's worth, here's the chart that almost everyone uses. The two columns on the left are for when you're down that number of points, and the right two are when you're ahead

                    Down                                                Ahead

1 point	Go for 2	1 point	Go for 2
2 points	Go for 1	2 points	Go for 2
3 points	Go for 1	3 points	Go for 1
4 points	Go for 2	4 points	Decision
5 points	Go for 2	5 points	Go for 2
6 points	Go for 1	6 points	Go for 1
7 points	Go for 1	7 points	Go for 1
8 points	Go for 1	8 points	Go for 1
9 points	Go for 1	9 points	Go for 2
10 points	Go for 1	10 points	Go for 1
11 points	Go for 1	11 points	Go for 2
12 points	Go for 2	12 points	Go for 2
13 points	Go for 1	13 points	Go for 1
14 points	Go for 1	14 points	Go for 1
15 points	Go for 2	15 points	Go for 1
16 points	Go for 1	16 points	Go for 2
17 points	Go for 1	17 points	Go for 1
18 points	Go for 1	18 points	Go for 1
19 points	Go for 2	19 points	Go for 2
20 points	Go for 1	20 points	Go for 1

I appreciate your posts on this and the discussion. 

The earlier you are in the game, the more worthless that chart is when it comes to probability of winning a game. When there will be 3 or 4 more scoring possessions left for each team, that chart becomes less likely to predict the winner of the game.

If a team is down by 18 points in the 4th quarter, go for 1? If you get the 1 you are down by 17. You need 3 possessions to possibly tie. If you go for 2 and make it you are down 16, it is a 2 possession game. Why in the world would you go for 1 in that situation with just 2 possessions left for you in the game? Similarly, down by 10 with 5 minutes to go, the chart says go for 1. Why? The XP made and you are down by 9 and it's a two possession game. But make the 2 point try and you are down by 8 - a one possession game. I think there should be a lot more in the "decision" category. Or maybe there should be charts for where you are in time left in a game because that changes the decision IMO.

The chart is based on statistical probabilities assuming all other things are equal. It doesn't factor in the opponent. It doesn't factor in your own team. It doesn't factor in where you are in the game. It doesn't factor in game weather and field conditions. Does that chart apply the same if it is Kansas City against the Panthers or Kansas City against the Eagles? Doesn't the opponent impact the probabilities?

There should be a different chart for the playoffs than there is for the regular season because the quality of opponents is much different. There is a reason why teams are only 3 of 10 on 2 point tries in the playoffs. When there are better defenses on the field, the probabilities change. 

One other factor Collin Cowherd stated on his show today. Most teams have one or two plays they think will be good if you go for 2. If you use those plays early in the game, when you get late in the game and really need a 2 point conversion, now you are going with your 3rd best play. By the way, Cowherd agrees with me that in a close game you shouldn't go for 2 before the 4th quarter.

On 1/26/2025 at 10:04 PM, DragonFire said:

I still cannot believe Dalton Kincaid did not catch that pass.

 

On 1/26/2025 at 10:31 PM, 16thBBall Fan said:

I agree the only thing I can figure is the Chiefs defenders running in front of him, but it still should have been caught no doubt.

People underrate how difficult it is to make catches where you have to change direction and catch balls behind you, plus Kincaid had to dive back to catch that. If he had caught that ball, people would be raving about what a great catch it was.