Final from San Fran. The Niners come from 17 down to go up by 10 the Lions finally scored with less than a minute to play to get to the final score.

I think you have a crystal ball 16.

Brock Purdy just showed every owner out there that you do not have to waste a number one pick on a quarterback.

8 minutes ago, theguru said:

I think you have a crystal ball 16.

LOL it should have been 3 kneel downs but the 49ers didn't handle it the best and had to run a play. Take and make the two FG's and the Lions would have won 37-34 and you, @REALSPORT, and me would have picked this game correctly. lol

Coach Campbell is WAY too hardheaded.   

If not for two really bad fourth down attempts, Detroit very well could have won. The game could have been tied with the second one and Detroit could have been back up three possessions the first one. I do like Dan Campbell, but he clearly cost them tonight’s game.

10 hours ago, hrcarrier said:

If not for two really bad fourth down attempts, Detroit very well could have won. The game could have been tied with the second one and Detroit could have been back up three possessions the first one. I do like Dan Campbell, but he clearly cost them tonight’s game.

Agree.  I know being aggressive and not kicking has been their MO, but you have to understand the situation of the game.  It's not like they never kicked during the season... they picked their spots and were smart about it.  The situations and decisions yesterday were not smart.  

52 minutes ago, REALSPORT said:

Agree.  I know being aggressive and not kicking has been their MO, but you have to understand the situation of the game.  It's not like they never kicked during the season... they picked their spots and were smart about it.  The situations and decisions yesterday were not smart.  

Agree. Situation and opponent are huge.

The other big point for me on this is decisions that might work in regular season are not as clear cut in post season. I want to see analytics on going for it on 4th down factoring in quality of opponent.

Personally, I am the opposite of Dan Campbell and Tomlin and others who are all in on going for it on 4th. I am taking the points almost every time. I also am anti going for 2 points before the 4th quarter.

12 hours ago, newarkcatholicfan said:

Brock Purdy just showed every owner out there that you do not have to waste a number one pick on a quarterback.

As long as you have plenty of total studs.

Regarding the decision to go for it:

-Badgley was merely 2/4 from that distance over past two seasons.

-He was 7/15 from that range in his career (46-48 yards)

-He had attempted zero kicks outside of a dome this season.

-Lions were converting 4th and 3 or less at an 83% rate.

-On the first one, the one that people seem to be focusing on, Josh Reynolds flat dropped the ball.

Dan Campbell absolutely made the correct choice given those factors, particularly on the first attempt.  They had a two score lead midway through the third quarter.  Yes, pushing to a three score lead would have been big but the analytics support that the correct choice was made, and they did everything right there with the exception of Josh Reynolds executing - he just dropped the pass.  What happened after - also on the players - was far worse. The dropped INT that went off his facemask that Aiyuk caught for a bomb, setting up a touchdown.  Gibbs fumbling on the first play after to give the ball right back.  And then after that led to a touchdown, Josh Reynolds with another egregious drop, this time on a third down conversion that he would have had easily, leading to another three and out. 

Now, I probably would have taken the risk and tried the field goal the second time, as at that point they were down three and it would have been an attempt to tie the game, but it is worth noting that the metrics about kick vs. go for it had not changed in that situation either.  I think each of those choices were defensible, and if his players had executed properly on at least the first one, I think we have an entirely different conversation today.

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Agree. Situation and opponent are huge.

The other big point for me on this is decisions that might work in regular season are not as clear cut in post season. I want to see analytics on going for it on 4th down factoring in quality of opponent.

Personally, I am the opposite of Dan Campbell and Tomlin and others who are all in on going for it on 4th. I am taking the points almost every time. I also am anti going for 2 points before the 4th quarter.

From what I’ve seen analytics were basically a toss up with going for it being the correct call by around .1%. I was dead set against going for it initially. The first one stands out especially in my mind because the FG would have put them up 3 scores. The last one I get because the FG only ties the game and gives the 49ers the ball back who were hot on offense. I think it’s important to remember though the third down dropped passes and Gibbs’ fumble also played a huge role in the outcome.

1 hour ago, rjs4470 said:

From what I’ve seen analytics were basically a toss up with going for it being the correct call by around .1%. I was dead set against going for it initially. The first one stands out especially in my mind because the FG would have put them up 3 scores. The last one I get because the FG only ties the game and gives the 49ers the ball back who were hot on offense. I think it’s important to remember though the third down dropped passes and Gibbs’ fumble also played a huge role in the outcome.

Here's another analytic angle I want to see. What happens after a team misses on 4th down?

Getting a stop on 4th is a big momentum shifting play. I want to see how making versus missing on 4th down impacts the game thereafter 

26 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Here's another analytic angle I want to see. What happens after a team misses on 4th down?

Getting a stop on 4th is a big momentum shifting play. I want to see how making versus missing on 4th down impacts the game thereafter 

I'm pretty sure that is part of the overall calculation, as each team's win percentage is considered from both sides (making it or not making it). Also keep in mind though, that "momentum" is statistically impossible to quantify. The only thing that can really be "calculated" is the relative strength of each teams offense and defense. The whole purpose of analytics is to remove "feeling" or your "gut" from the decision making process. Momentum is not tangible or measurable...although it does certainly exist. 

Another thing to remember is your decision in these situations technically only affects your team's probable outcome as the only variable you control is your decision to go for it or not. Choose correctly, and your "win percentage" goes up. Choose incorrectly and your win percentage goes down. Of course what really ends up mattering is whether the play is actually successful or not and the fact that a game is made up of many, many plays and rarely does a game hinge on just one specific play. 

1 minute ago, rjs4470 said:

I'm pretty sure that is part of the overall calculation, as each team's win percentage is considered from both sides (making it or not making it). Also keep in mind though, that "momentum" is statistically impossible to quantify. The only thing that can really be "calculated" is the relative strength of each teams offense and defense. The whole purpose of analytics is to remove "feeling" or your "gut" from the decision making process. Momentum is not tangible or measurable...although it does certainly exist. 

I think momentum can be measured  by how a game changes on the scoreboard.

3 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I think momentum can be measured  by how a game changes on the scoreboard.

How the scoreboard changes is part of the analytics calculation  in the historical data of the situation analysis. So if that's how you want to define momentum, it's already included.