Bowling Green at South Warren Predictions/Updates

[Purple88]

Bowling Green (5-2) at South Warren (6-1)

Easily one of the best, if not the best 5A regular season games of the year right here, with the winner taking a strong step toward sowing up the regular season 5A District 2 title, a huge RPI Boost, and a more favorable pathway into the 5A playoffs.

Series Information:

This will be the 12^th meeting between the two local rivals.  The series began in 2017, when South moved up to 5A and was placed in the same district with Bowling Green and they have been playing ever since.  Bowling Green leads the series 6-5.  Interestingly, neither team has held a 2-game lead in the series and neither team has won more than 2 in a row; although both have won 2 in a row twice during the all-time series. 

South Warren Information:

South Warren comes into this game fresh off a shellacking of Moore High School 48-15.  South scored all 48 points in the first half vs the 37-man Mustangs and coasted from there.  Star JR QB Bryce Button was very effective in this game throwing to at least 5 different WRs and never threatened.

South is playing on the uptick following their only defeat of the year at 6A Manual 38-35, a loss that looks better after last night (Manual 37 - St X 36).

Important skill guys for South besides Button include SR RB Jimmy Sales and a nice group of WRs including Bailey Shoemaker (who is high on the State 5A stat list for receptions), DeShawn Bridges, Ethan Reynolds (who I believe is committed to WKU for baseball), and Isiah Rigsby.  All these players are having a strong year for South Warren.

The Spartan defense didn’t start the year the way most Spartan defenses do dominating from the get go.  But they have been getting better each week and playing a team like Manual will really help them in that regard.  In particular, the Spartan LB core are really good with Ethan Reynolds and Jace Catrona.  And the Spartan DLine have done a better job of late coming off the ball and disrupting their opponents.  They will need that this Friday.

Bowling Green Information:

Bowling Green comes into this game fresh off their BYE week and prior to that, 4 games they power-washed 4 less challenging opponents 214-13.  Prior to that, were 3 memorable games the Purples came out on the down side against Lexington Christian and Bryan Station; but sandwiched those close defeats with a 14-point wilting win (it was nearly 100 degrees that day) at Owensboro’s Rash Stadium.

Bowling Green is led by star JR QB Deuce Bailey who has played awfully well this year.  Bailey has a nice stable of WRs who have made big plays all year and include SO Travey Barber and JR CJ Sweeney along with SR TE Matthew Klein.  SR RB Javen Huddleston seemed to have gotten nicked up again vs Christain County, but the running back stable is pretty full at BG with a pair of future star RBs in SO’s Jaxon Smith and Tre Graham.

The BG defense was pretty underwhelming, to say the least, the first 3 games of the season.  There were many reasons for this IMO, most notably being replacing 8 starters from last season's state runner-up team.  But I’ve seen BG make some changes on that side of the ball and feel they are getting back to this year’s version of the BG Jungle D.  But the opponents wouldn’t let you know that for sure.  Well, that changes this Friday night as a very strong South Warren offense that will certainly challenge them.  The BG D will have to be at their best to pull out the win on the road this week.

Game Information:

Currently, South Warren is on a 2-game win streak.  Bowling Green is on a 4-game win streak and a 2-game win streak in this series.  Can the Purples pull off a series of first vs South and win for the 3^rd straight game and hold a 2-game lead in the series or will South hold serve at home and even the series back up where it has often been between these two? 

The game will be at South Warren, which is an advantage in itself, as Coach Smith controls the pre-game music.  So, I expect variations of Amazing Grace to He Stopped Loving Her Today by George Jones to not give BG any juice in the pre-game warm ups!  Ha!  Going to be a really fun game!

Who wins this important matchup one and why?

[PurpleTim]

Wonderful write up. Hoping rain stays away and it’s a perfect Fall, crisp night. 
 

48-21 Purples is my bias prediction 

[Redheat]

I believe south Warren wins. Bailey will have more passing yds.

[Tigerpride94]

I'll go with Bowling Green by 7.

[Brown]

BG by 17.

 

BG has 2 losses, but is 9 points away from being undefeated.    Both teams don’t have the defense they normally do but they are progressing.  Bowling Green the tougher schedule.  SW struggled with North Hardin (heavy passing team I might add).  The close Manual game is aging well but they’ve played no offense comparable to BG - especially with the QB the purples have.  I know it’s a hotly contested rivalry game, but from the outside looking in the purples own this game, although I think South will score some.

 

Purples 42-25.

[Hungover_in_Andover]

I like South Warren decisively. As in, past halftime, SW holds a two score lead for the win. I do NOT have faith in BG defense. 

[Devils Fan]

BG-35 SW-28. Special teams and turnovers will be a big factor in this one. 

[TheBarber]

I don’t think Bowling Green will be able to run the ball affectively against the South defense, therefore, that is my reasoning for thinking Bailey will have more passing yards. I think the south will win a close game.

[Killowatt59]

If the weather stays dry BG wins by two+ tds. They are definitely the better the team.
 

Bailey of course will have more passing yards.

 

if the weather is wet and the conditions aren’t great, who knows. Different ball game.

[Killowatt59]

22 hours ago, Brown said:

BG by 17.

 

BG has 2 losses, but is 9 points away from being undefeated.    Both teams don’t have the defense they normally do but they are progressing.  Bowling Green the tougher schedule.  SW struggled with North Hardin (heavy passing team I might add).  The close Manual game is aging well but they’ve played no offense comparable to BG - especially with the QB the purples have.  I know it’s a hotly contested rivalry game, but from the outside looking in the purples own this game, although I think South will score some.

 

Purples 42-25.

This is a very good assessment.

[Purple88]

Thought I would give a snapshot of the games these 2 have played thus far to get geared up for the big game on Friday.

Here are snapshots of the first 6 games of the series (I'll do the last 5 tomorrow):

Game 1: 2017 - Regular Season at Bowling Green - First game of the series was highly anticipated of course.  BG QB Beau Buchanon had a monster game with over 330 yards passing and 5 TDs as the Purples put a running clock on the shell-shocked Spartans 43-7.  1-0 Bowling Green.

Game 2: 2017 - Playoffs at Bowling Green - First Playoff Matchup - South went on the road and defeated a previously undefeated Christian County team that was the #1 seed in 5A District 1 (Probably the Colonels last high point).  That set up a rematch at El Donaldson Stadium with most favoring the Purples.  But South brought a different game plan and rode star RB Christian Winn with 35 carries for 166 yards and 3 TDs as South STUNNED BG 28-21.  IMO the biggest upset in the series to date.  South would go on to lose the next week to eventual state champion Covington Catholic.  1 All Series Tied.

Game 3: 2018 - Regular Season at South Warren - This was a strong South team led by Jacob Lacey who played significant snaps last Saturday for Oklahoma vs Texas.  Although it was close at halftime (7-0 South I believe), South was never really threatened in this game and won 38-12.  An odd call did happen though, as star BG player Vito Tisdale was returning a punt, "Hurdling" was called on Tisdale and negated a near kick-6 and instead put BG deep in their own territory.  Some calls you just remember for a long time.

They would not meet again this season as BG's streak vs Owensboro was broken as the Red Devils exercised some demons and defeated BG in the playoffs 28-21.  South would go on to win their 2nd State Championship in an epic game vs a strong Covington Catholic squad 20-16.  2-1 South Warren.

Game 4: 2019 - Regular Season at South Warren - South was undefeated and BG came into this game on the heels of a tough home loss to St X.  Very hard nosed game that BG star RB Javey Bunton ran for 86 yards and 2 TDs and the BG D surrendered less than 170 total yards in the game.  BG 14 - South 3.  2 All Series Tied.

Game 5: 2019 - Playoffs at Bowling Green - On a really cold November night Javey Bunton again rushed for about 80 yards and 1 TD, but QB Conner Cooper made a few key rushes in the 4th quarter to propel BG to win 20-13.  BG would advance to the state semi-finals vs Covington Catholic and fall 28-0.  Vito Tisdale would play with a broken hand and CovCath had the legendary Michael Mayers who went on to win state that year.  3-2 Bowling Green.

Game 6: 2020 - Regular Season at Bowling Green - Through the Covid-19 Chaos - One of the best defensive matchups these 2 have played.  But South star QB Caden Veltkamp made some super plays in this one to lead South to a tough 10-7 win.  3 All Series Tied.

We'll pick up here tomorrow.  Stay tuned!

[PurpleTim]

Purple88

Your work ethic on these threads are unrivaled. 

[DevilMayCare]

These two have packed a lot into six years and this has become the most challenging marquee rivalry game to pick. Each has blown the other one out multiple times. Some games we thought would be close, weren't. Some we thought wouldn't be close, were.

I'm feeling the Purples here, despite South Warren exceeding preseason expectations so far. 

I don't envision a scenario where this isn't a 42-38 type game. And Bowling Green is my pick. So obviously South is going to grind out a 3-0 win. 

Buckle up folks, and be ready for anything. 

[DevilMayCare]

I went with Bailey to throw for more yards, but that vote feels like a coin flip. I could easily see Button with more yards.

He's taken a big leap from sophomore to junior year. Very impressive young quarterback. 

[Purple88]

25 minutes ago, DevilMayCare said:

I went with Bailey to throw for more yards, but that vote feels like a coin flip. I could easily see Button with more yards.

He's taken a big leap from sophomore to junior year. Very impressive young quarterback. 

You know DMC, that second question has become pretty fascinating to me.  Sixteen (16) people voted for South and half of them voted for Deuce Bailey to have more passing yards.  I suppose they think BG will not be able to run any and South Warren will.

If you look at the 2023 season stats, South has just over twice as many passing yards as they have rush yards on the season (about 1,000 rushing to about 2,000 passing).  I know rushing the ball will be important to some degree, but both of these offenses IMO like to throw the ball period.  Really going to be interesting to see what happens.