Bowling Green at South Warren Predictions/Updates

[Killowatt59]

5 hours ago, BillNye said:

 

I agree that running the ball against this BG team negates possessions for them. My counter to that, South Warren has been a bit of a pass happy team thus far through the season. Not to say they have ignored the run game, but it seems (IMO) that they would rather throw it than run it. I'd venture to think they feel more comfortable letting Button dictate the pace than their run game.  If this is the route they choose to go it would be changing their identity to a certain extent. That's also not me implying they can't do it, but normally a Brandon Smith led team plays to their strengths and they don't get away from what they do best.

It's also very much possible that Bowling Green is capable of showing improvement here.  There was quite literally no where to go but up from the beginning of the season. 

I don't think the guy has seen this BG team play very much. 

[BillNye]

@Killowatt59

 I am not under the impression the front 7 for BG is as talent deficient as it was presented. Thought there were some serious scheme/alignment issues early on. Whether they have been remedied or not, is up to the eye of the beholder, I suppose. Ultimately it will be settled on the field.

Are they as good as years past? No. 

Are they capable of turning in a solid showing? Absolutely. 

I also have a hard time imagining Bowling Green being held to 21 points. They have been held to 40 points or less once this season thus far, in a game where they still put up 35 points and left plenty out there.

We will see. I'm sticking with BG comfortably.

[TheBallCoach]

36 minutes ago, Killowatt59 said:

I don't think the guy has seen this BG team play very much. 

Watched every game of substance, I’m sorry I’m not going to allow a month of feel good wins against the likes of Ohio County and Christian County lead to me believe we’ll see otherwise. Davyon Barber and Jake Napier will not be coming out of the locker room Friday night unfortunately, you’re defending a defense who let Bryan Station run 300+ and 4 TDs and also allowed 700+ scrimmage yards to LCA, nothing has changed but the date.

[Purple88]

17 minutes ago, BillNye said:

@Killowatt59

 I am not under the impression the front 7 for BG is as talent deficient as it was presented. Thought there were some serious scheme/alignment issues early on. Whether they have been remedied or not, is up to the eye of the beholder, I suppose. Ultimately it will be settled on the field.

Are they as good as years past? No. 

Are they capable of turning in a solid showing? Absolutely. 

I also have a hard time imagining Bowling Green being held to 21 points. They have been held to 40 points or less once this season thus far, in a game where they still put up 35 points and left plenty out there.

We will see. I'm sticking with BG comfortably.

These are really good points BN.  I think we see if BG has come full circle on this years defense or not this Friday night.

[Purple88]

10 minutes ago, TheBallCoach said:

Watched every game of substance, I’m sorry I’m not going to allow a month of feel good wins against the likes of Ohio County and Christian County lead to me believe we’ll see otherwise. Davyon Barber and Jake Napier will not be coming out of the locker room Friday night unfortunately, you’re defending a defense who let Bryan Station run 300+ and 4 TDs and also allowed 700+ scrimmage yards to LCA, nothing has changed but the date.

I'm really glad there is a different take out there!  Thanks TBC!  Where are the South fans?  Crickets....

Anyway, I wanted to address this take with mine.  First, you have every reason to present the BG defense this way.  They earned that really.  

But I feel there's more to it than that.  

The LCA game was BG's first for a new defense replacing 8 starters.  That's alot.  I felt their schemes and alignment were terrible in that game.  Not to mention Cutter Boley are Brady Hensley are pretty decent football players.

The Bryan Station game, BG was down 5 defensive starters with illness and injury.  Next man up.  I understand that, but in the Sun Bowl (it was 90 degrees and blazing hot for the early game on Saturday's LCA Bowl) that unexpected lack of depth makes a difference.  Again, you can say I'm making excuses and I am kind of.

But I'm saying that to point out I don't feel the defense you will find on Friday is the same defense that stepped on the field in mid-August/early September.  But that's why you play the game.  Going to be a really fun one!

[ApolloFan98]

I came here to get a little more info on this matchup, knowing I could depend on @Purple88.  Fantastic thread.  This should be a great game.  I expect it will come down to who is the best in the 4th quarter!

BG 28 - SW 20

[Killowatt59]

5 minutes ago, ApolloFan98 said:

I came here to get a little more info on this matchup, knowing I could depend on @Purple88.  Fantastic thread.  This should be a great game.  I expect it will come down to who is the best in the 4th quarter!

BG 28 - SW 20

@Purple88Is better than the Post Office cause he always delivers. 

[Purple88]

GAME DAY!!!!  

Finally!  Been a long time coming!

The BG Daily News did a good job with their pre-game article.  If you care to read it, here you go:

South Warren, BG look to get upper hand in district battle | Prep Sports | bgdailynews.com

It has a few takes from both coaches, who are both respectful of their opponents, as you would imagine.

Coming into the game, I wanted to provide a few keys to the game and see how they play out.  I won't bore you with the standard turnovers and kicking game.  Those are important, of course, but what else matters here:

1.  Which QB plays better?  Both teams have top 5A QBs.  And both have played super this season and I think both will play well this game.  But in order to win, I think one will have to play better and be the best player on the field.  Who will that be?

2.  The Trenches - Similar to turnovers and kicking game, the linemen are a key component to any 11 v 11 football game.  Both teams have good units and players IMO, but one team should stand out on the winning side.  I think you'll be able to tell by which team has more rushing yards and which team puts more pressure on the opposing QB.  Pretty good metrics for this.

3.  Play calling - This is certainly an artform in my book.  How do you keep your opponent guessing and on the back foot?  The game plan and critical 3rd or 4th down play calls will decide this game IMO.  Going to be fascinating I think.

4.  Defense - From the outside looking in, will any be played tonight?  Both teams light up the scoreboard on regularity.  Both teams have been held to a season low of points at 35 ONCE all season long!  Everything else has been 40 to mid-50 burgers!!!   BUT, somehow a part of me expects this game to go under that.  But that may be from me reading the earlier games of the series.  Not sure either has a defense as solid as the ones I'm referencing.  But I do believe one teams defense will make the deciding play (a late INT, scoop 6, etc.).

What say you!  What else are keys for you?

Good luck to both teams, but as ALWAYS - Go Purples!!!

[DearToday]

I'm going Bowling Green by 14. 

[theguru]

On 10/11/2023 at 9:39 AM, Purple88 said:

Velvet,

A good and free streaming of this game is available here:

- Sporting Times (stfanclub.com)

Free video everyone.  I am stoked about this game! 

[Brown]

After hearing opposing points of view I'm going to change my prediction.

I previously had BG winning 42-25.

 

Now I have the Purples winning 43-24.

[theguru]

2 minutes ago, Brown said:

After hearing opposing points of view I'm going to change my prediction.

I previously had BG winning 42-25.

 

Now I have the Purples winning 43-24.

[BillNye]

I'm interested to see how the BG offense looks on natural grass. I don't know how many times they haven't played on turf all season. It may not effect them in the slightest, this is merely just a thought that crossed my mind earlier.

[DevilMayCare]

6 hours ago, Purple88 said:

1.  Which QB plays better?  Both teams have top 5A QBs.  And both have played super this season and I think both will play well this game.  But in order to win, I think one will have to play better and be the best player on the field.  Who will that be?

I have to give the edge to Bailey here. The numbers don't bear it out this season, but I think he's a bigger threat to hurt you with his legs. The more twitchy athlete of the two in the open field.

Also... Button has been sensational this season, but this game is a different animal. He completed three passes the last time he saw the Purples. So much hinges on what's happening between a quarterback's ears and this is the most pressure packed game on the schedule for both sides. He has more to prove tonight. 

Who holds it together better when the pressure creeps in? I have a little more trust in Deuce Bailey right now.

[Purple88]

Beautiful Night!  Rain will hopefully continue to hold off. 
Purples in White jerseys, and gold pants and helmets. 
Spartans in all Black. 
32 minutes on the clock before kickoff.