Severe Weather possible middle of next week.

[nWo]

I'm at work on my lunch break and I usually take the time to check out future weather. To my surprise, the Storm Prediction Center has a 15% chance area for severe storms out for portions of western Kentucky next Wednesday. The Storm Prediction Center wouldn't issue something like that 6 days out unless the model guidance is showing an event brewing. I took a quick look at the model guidance I use and did indeed see something in the works. I don't have time now to post a detailed event. Check back this evening for my first take on a possible severe weather event for next week.

I'm not predicting anything like it now but it was about 6 days out when the SPC started issuing outlooks for the systems that moved through the Gulf Coast state earlier this week. 

 

[nWo]

Model guidance currently suggests that low and mid-level winds will strengthen on Wednesday resulting in very impressive wind profiles ( wind speed and direction changing with height). This along with a negatively tilted trough and ample moisture suggests that the potential for numerous severe storms exists. Given these conditions, higher severe probabilities may be needed later if the current trends with the model guidance continue. The negatively tilted trough is what caught my attention earlier today. This is a sign of a fully developed strong low-pressure system. Which could cause a possible severe weather outbreak. As of now, those west of I-65 should pay attention to subsequent outlooks. 

 

The period covered is from 2 pm EDT Wednesday to 8 am EDT Thursday.

Trough map

 

Temps

 

Dewpoints

 

 

Radar

[nWo]

I've been following this situation since last week. While nothing is definite yet I'm growing more concerned for the western part of Kentucky. As of this evening, it appears that the ingredients are coming together for a possible severe weather event. After a relatively cool Monday and Tuesday temperatures are expected to reach almost 80 degrees by Wednesday afternoon. A strong low-pressure system will pass to the northwest of Kentucky. It will draw warm moist air from the Gulf into western Kentucky.  A strong cold front trailing from the low will slam into the warm moisture-laden air mass. A line of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop ahead of the front. The best chance for strong to severe storms will be west of I-65. Winds will be gusty ahead of the showers and storms. Wind gusts during the day could reach 40-50 mph.

First I want to show the radar, temperature, and dew point maps.

 

 

 

Now let's look at the possible severe weather parameters. They will be as follows, EHI, Supercell Composite, and Significant Tornado.

 

 

 

This is a new map that I'm posting for the first time. It is the Theta-e map. It shows the stability of the atmosphere or the available energy in the atmosphere. Also, it looks similar to a dew point map but is not the same thing. It shows readings around 330. That means the atmosphere will be unstable enough to promote the potential formation of severe thunderstorms. You can see the southerly winds switch to southwesterly winds. The prevailing winds for Kentucky usually come out of the southwest. So most tornadoes move from the southwest to northeast in Kentucky.  Of course, things will more likely change as we are still a little over 3 days away. I will update everyone tomorrow.  I fully expect at least a level 2 Slight Risk Area for western Kentucky tomorrow. If the model guidance continues as it looks now may even see a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area by Tuesday.

 

 

[nWo]

[nWo]

Tuesday morning update:

As I expected the Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level for most of Kentucky.  A section of western Kentucky is now under a level 3 Enhanced Risk Area. The level 2 Slight Risk Area has been expanded eastward to around I-75. While most of the rest of the eastern portion of Kentucky is under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area. On a side note once again sections of Louisiana, Mississippi, and western Alabama could see a tornado outbreak.

 

For western Kentucky, there is a risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night. At the moment the best chance period will be Wednesday afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds will be the main severe weather hazard, but isolated tornadoes are also possible. Very windy conditions are expected outside of the thunderstorms. Winds from the south will rapidly increase. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 50 mph will occur. Locally heavy rain will also be possible 1-1.5" are expected. Locally higher amounts may occur.

The storms will weekend as they travel eastward across Kentucky. Damaging winds and heavy rains will be the main hazard modes. A brief spin-up tornado or two can't be completely ruled out. 

 

[nWo]

Tuesday evening update:

Wednesday will be very windy during the day with high fire danger, especially in eastern Kentucky. There's a risk for severe thunderstorms from mid to late afternoon over western Kentucky. Strong to severe storms are expected ahead of a cold front Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts and isolated spin-up tornadoes will be the main threat modes.