If I'm looking at the map on 538 correctly, of Trump can take Florida and NC from Hillary, he wins. And those two are very close races. Is that right?

If I'm looking at the map on 538 correctly, of Trump can take Florida and NC from Hillary, he wins. And those two are very close races. Is that right?

 

That isn't correct as far as Trump needing only to win those states. It looks a bit that way because their projection has Hillary at 302 and Donald at 234 - and Florida and North Carolina are currently shaded blue with their 44 electoral votes. But those total for the candidates are weighted on percentages. If you plug the map with those exact colors in at 270towin, it's 323-215. So if he flipped those states, it'd be 279 to 259. Trump will have to get those two for certain, but he'll need something else. Either a whale like Pennsylvania or Michigan, or put two states together. Nevada is the other state that is close to swinging on that map, but they're just 6 votes. It'd still be 273-265. No other small amount state is all that close, with New Hampshire being the lightest blue after those, with its 4 electoral votes. Now a split election, wouldn't that be something.

 

Honestly, I couldn't believe how rapidly the polls have closed in North Carolina and Florida. Surprised me.

That isn't correct as far as Trump needing only to win those states. It looks a bit that way because their projection has Hillary at 302 and Donald at 234 - and Florida and North Carolina are currently shaded blue with their 44 electoral votes. But those total for the candidates are weighted on percentages. If you plug the map with those exact colors in at 270towin, it's 323-215. So if he flipped those states, it'd be 279 to 259. Trump will have to get those two for certain, but he'll need something else. Either a whale like Pennsylvania or Michigan, or put two states together. Nevada is the other state that is close to swinging on that map, but they're just 6 votes. It'd still be 273-265. No other small amount state is all that close, with New Hampshire being the lightest blue after those, with its 4 electoral votes. Now a split election, wouldn't that be something.

 

Honestly, I couldn't believe how rapidly the polls have closed in North Carolina and Florida. Surprised me.

 

Got it. It's definitely closer than it was a couple weeks ago, it seems. Based on what I've read I'm not sure the latest FBI news is reflected in this is it?

Got it. It's definitely closer than it was a couple weeks ago, it seems. Based on what I've read I'm not sure the latest FBI news is reflected in this is it?

 

Not sure...

 

Wiki-leaks is promising some really bad stuff on HRC by the end of the week. Most likely this Thursday...could be very interesting.

Here is a easy and fun site to play around with Electoral Projections.

 

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Got it. It's definitely closer than it was a couple weeks ago, it seems. Based on what I've read I'm not sure the latest FBI news is reflected in this is it?

 

Some of the polls they're using are from within that timeline. When I click into North Carolina, for instance, a SurveyUSA poll conducted from the 28th-31st has Trump up by 7 points, which is basically right in that timeframe. That poll has the second highest weight of the North Carolina polls. Some of the others are during that time as well. But it is possible that they could slide more Trump's way as they conduct more. And apparently one reason why Florida and North Carolina are gaining so fast is because they conduct more frequent polls there compared to other states.

 

They just posted an article on the site about Trump having a pathway to victory centered around the idea that we're not getting much data from the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin, and that flipping one of them in addition to Florida and North Carolina would bring that victory - Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory | FiveThirtyEight. I honestly expect Trump to blow himself back up in the next few days to push this back to comfort, but incredibly at this time, it looks like he actually might make a real go of this again. I still expect HRC to be our next president.

Do you communicate with the following groups much, if not, you are not hitting her core voters.

 

1. The Elite

2. The famous

3. The media

4. Minoriites

5. Women not from the South

 

1. Sometimes I feel Elite when I read posts on here.

2. Never felt famous but I have been on the news 4 times.

3. My girlfriend / wife was a high school journalist.

4. Redneck Democrat ...check that is a minority group

5. I'm from the South but not a woman...1 out of 2 ain't bad.

 

Heck a stereotype. Must be a lot of people that can match that 5 degrees of HRC to put her in office, or I guess it's all rigged.

Some of the polls they're using are from within that timeline. When I click into North Carolina, for instance, a SurveyUSA poll conducted from the 28th-31st has Trump up by 7 points, which is basically right in that timeframe. That poll has the second highest weight of the North Carolina polls. Some of the others are during that time as well. But it is possible that they could slide more Trump's way as they conduct more. And apparently one reason why Florida and North Carolina are gaining so fast is because they conduct more frequent polls there compared to other states.

 

They just posted an article on the site about Trump having a pathway to victory centered around the idea that we're not getting much data from the likes of Michigan and Wisconsin, and that flipping one of them in addition to Florida and North Carolina would bring that victory - Election Update: Yes, Donald Trump Has A Path To Victory | FiveThirtyEight. I honestly expect Trump to blow himself back up in the next few days to push this back to comfort, but incredibly at this time, it looks like he actually might make a real go of this again. I still expect HRC to be our next president.

 

One map I saw had Colorado as a toss up, but most seem to have it going to Hillary. It does look like it's going to be tough for Trump, unless he steals a big state like you said. I guess this supposed huge news from wikileaks could help him as well.

Some were talking today that Trump could win New Hampshire and current polling has him getting 1 of Maine's electors...if that is true, here is a path to 270 for him.

 

 

Still very narrow path for Trump, while not likely, it is much more likely than it was 2 weeks ago.

Some were talking today that Trump could win New Hampshire and current polling has him getting 1 of Maine's electors...if that is true, here is a path to 270 for him.

 

 

Still very narrow path for Trump, while not likely, it is much more likely than it was 2 weeks ago.

 

We are a week away. Who knows which news magazine bus interview or new email investigation will pop up by Friday?

We are a week away. Who knows which news magazine bus interview or new email investigation will pop up by Friday?

 

True, I'm sure there are teams of people looking right now.

True, I'm sure there are teams of people looking right now.

 

I honestly believe the Access Hollywood story killed Trump's chances when we talk early voting, but if we are looking at a Hail Mary when is the latest this can happen in today's 24 hour news world?

 

Polls....interesting....

 

But maybe more a reflection of who has control of the key GEMS machines.

Moving into the last week of polling, and maybe we might start seeing some "real" polling data vs. the politically motivated polling that we've seen to date--That's why the race is "tightening". Now way things are changing 12 points, etc. in a week, as some of these "polls" suggest--Strictly now starting to poll more accurately as the final numbers are the only ones anyone remembers.

I don't feel as good as I would if it was Bernie, Joe, Lizzy, or countless other Democrats, but she's all I have. What do I do? Not vote? I always cast a ballot.

 

Always.

 

Not logical says UKMF.