I agree at the moment. Hillary's commercials are becoming boring by repetition. She needs trump to do something stupid again and she is a lock. If he keeps his mouth shut, big mo is rolling in his direction. I sense an upset.

Time, or lack there of, is his biggest enemy right now. If the election was an extra week away, I think he'd end up with a better than 50/50 chance. As is I still think he ends up falling a little bit short.

 

Heck no! More time is only more time for him to do something stupid to blow himself up. This is as good as it'll look for him if he keeps his mouth shut. Positive movement on some polls though late today to stunt the momentum we'd been seeing.

Heck no! More time is only more time for him to do something stupid to blow himself up. This is as good as it'll look for him if he keeps his mouth shut. Positive movement on some polls though late today to stunt the momentum we'd been seeing.

 

Nevada and Florida seem to be trending back to Hillary at the moment.

If Hillary loses this.. She's had the easiest path to presidency. Obama (first black president, some said it would never be done), Sanders (Jewish socialist), and Donald Trump (..Donald Trump). It's like Duke come tournament time (I kid I kid).

 

She better have something up her sleeves.

Nevada and Florida seem to be trending back to Hillary at the moment.

 

Florida is basically 50/50 right now. 538 actually has Trump back ahead there.

Florida is basically 50/50 right now. 538 actually has Trump back ahead there.

 

Craziness. It changes so fast. This morning it was Trump, this evening Hillary and now back to Trump. Worst election ever. :lol2:

Craziness. It changes so fast. This morning it was Trump, this evening Hillary and now back to Trump. Worst election ever. :lol2:

 

Starting to think these polls are a real joke! I know some are slanted to support the reporter's point of view, as I've been polled several times; and can easily understand where the questioner is trying to lead me. No way a ABC poll moves 14 points in one week for example??

 

I heard this opinion voiced weeks ago, that we should watch the polls the last week or so; as they would begin to more accurately reflect the true nature of the race, once the "political stunt" was removed. The pollsters want to be somewhat accurate near the end, regardless of their motives earlier on.

Why I Can No Longer Support Hillary Clinton | Huffington Post

I guess we'll see. If it's as close as these polls say, it will be interesting. Trump still has a tough road to go to win.

I guess we'll see. If it's as close as these polls say, it will be interesting. Trump still has a tough road to go to win.

 

Agreed. I think it will be really close. And intense.

Starting to think these polls are a real joke! I know some are slanted to support the reporter's point of view, as I've been polled several times; and can easily understand where the questioner is trying to lead me. No way a ABC poll moves 14 points in one week for example??

 

I heard this opinion voiced weeks ago, that we should watch the polls the last week or so; as they would begin to more accurately reflect the true nature of the race, once the "political stunt" was removed. The pollsters want to be somewhat accurate near the end, regardless of their motives earlier on.

 

I personally don't pay attention to polls. The only thing that matters is electoral votes. I follow 538 and that is it.

I personally don't pay attention to polls. The only thing that matters is electoral votes. I follow 538 and that is it.

You cannot improve upon an honest poll. Nate Silver and partisans like him take polls and inject their own subjectivity into the results. Sometimes they outperform polls and often they do not. It's not much different than giving a chimp a handful of darts to provide investment advice.

 

Rarely do 538 and similar organizations outperform the internal polls paid for by the campaigns. You can improve forecasts by tinkering with the weighting used in biased polls, but that is still no substitute for an honest poll based on a large sample randomly drawn from the pool of likely voters.

You cannot improve upon an honest poll. Nate Silver and partisans like him take polls and inject their own subjectivity into the results. Sometimes they outperform polls and often they do not. It's not much different than giving a chimp a handful of darts to provide investment advice.

 

Rarely do 538 and similar organizations outperform the internal polls paid for by the campaigns. You can improve forecasts by tinkering with the weighting used in biased polls, but that is still no substitute for an honest poll based on a large sample randomly drawn from the pool of likely voters.

 

Holler at me on Tuesday night if 538 proves to be wrong. They've been right for how many elections in a row now?

Holler at me on Tuesday night if 538 proves to be wrong. They've been right for how many elections in a row now?

Compare his projections from two weeks ago to his final projections, just prior to the election. Tell me how accurate his projections from two weeks prior to the election were and then tell me which states he hit and missed where he picked against the last RCP averages for the states with recent polling. Nate Silver has missed his share of picks, but his perfect record in one presidential election have made his career.

 

Like I said, you cannot outperform honest, statistically sound polls - at least not with any consistency. It really is not possible. The problem is that honest polls are not in much demand by the media. If I get time, I will make my picks on Monday and compare them with Nate Silver's results. I doubt that they would be much different, and anybody with the results of the last polls taken before election day could pick nearly every state correctly if they resist the temptation to "go with their gut" on any of the state results.

Compare his projections from two weeks ago to his final projections, just prior to the election. Tell me how accurate his projections from two weeks prior to the election were and then tell me which states he hit and missed where he picked against the last RCP averages for the states with recent polling. Nate Silver has missed his share of picks, but his perfect record in one presidential election have made his career.

 

Like I said, you cannot outperform honest, statistically sound polls - at least not with any consistency. It really is not possible. The problem is that honest polls are not in much demand by the media. If I get time, I will make my picks on Monday and compare them with Nate Silver's results. I doubt that they would be much different, and anybody with the results of the last polls taken before election day could pick nearly every state correctly if they resist the temptation to "go with their gut" on any of the state results.

 

Okay.