article Inside The 11th Region (2/15/15)

[JokersWild24]

Another wild week in the 11th have passed, some news is breaking, and we've got a shakeup to our rankings. What else is new?

 

We've seen some games with huge implications this week, including LCA's going to Lexington Catholic and beating the Knights to take the #1 seed in the 43rd, which for my money, is toughest district in the State. We've also seen Lafayette knock off Trinity and serve notice that they are going to be a force for anyone as they ride an impressive streak that also includes a win over Bryan Station that's left a buzz of it's own.

 

With our Lexington-area district match-ups now set, let's take a look at what's going on around the 11th, including some nuggets in the team capsules that you'll definitely want to check out.

 

 

 

Team of the Week - Lafayette:

 

If you haven't noticed, I typically try to spread my team of the week out quite a bit and give lots of love and recognition to a few different teams because let's face it, there's plenty in a region this deep who are deserving. I have a hard time giving this award to the same team in such close succession, but right now there's no denying the Generals and my giving them the award as recently as two weeks ago isn't enough to change that.

 

This is a team that few people really gave much of a chance this year, mainly because people saw Jackson Davis graduating and thought, "how will they ever replace him?". Honestly, I wasn't one of the people in that camp, and even had others questioning me on why I'd had them so high. Fact is, I always had my concerns about how much Davis might have hindered the overall psyche of the team. Without saying much else, I think it's probably best left at saying that their kids probably have a better chemistry as a whole this year.

 

I'll call this team "the State's best #4 seed in any district". Since dropping a tough one to Dunbar on January 27, Lafayette's balance has guided them to six straight wins, including victories over Henry Clay, LCA, Bryan Station, and Trinity during that stretch.

 

Here's what I said about them two weeks ago, at the time, 6th Man TJ Downey was my Player of the Week:

 

"With the emergence of this week’s player of the week, TJ Downey, the Generals join the ranks of my Team of the Week, which so far this season, includes Lexington Catholic (x2), Bryan Station, Dunbar, Lexington Christian Academy, and Henry Clay. The Generals are a bit inconsistent, but I’ll give them some love now that Player of the Week TJ Downey, appears to have emerged and provides a consistent scoring threat to go alongside Ross Jenkins (who had 27 points, 16 boards, and 5 blocks to lead the way against Henry Clay).

 

With Downey’s providing consistent scoring, the trio of Lucky Jackson, Harrison Lane, and Ross Jenkins becomes even more dangerous, as you can’t put too much focus on any one player without chancing the rest beating you. Throw in Jaelin Jenkins, Jajuante Carpenter, William Watkins, and Cameron Greenup to round things out, and you can see that the Generals have some depth.

 

While the biggest question right now might be who gets the ball if you have to clear out and let someone go one-on-one and create given that the Generals don’t have an Isaiah Tisdale, Darius Williams, Matt Rose, or Tanner Johnson, they are still dangerous because holding any one player individually to, say, half of their average, doesn’t mean that you are guaranteed to beat them. Consistently inconsistent so far this season, they are definitely a fun team to follow and not someone I’d want to play in a one-off."

 

Here are some relevant bits from what I had to say about Lafayette this past week:

 

"Jajuante Carpenter, a kid who I saw last year and fell in love with his game and potential, wasn't the player I expected him to be early in the season. However, he's also coming on as of late, as he dropped 19 on Perry Central and 14 on Franklin Co."

 

"Yes, yes, Lafayette still has BGP favorite Dontavion "Lucky" Jackson, and Harrison Lane is still one of the coldest snipers in the LFC area, so don't think I've forgotten about them.

 

I'm a fan of Michael Mendenhall and his system, and think that anyone overlooking Lafayette should think again. I like the General's depth as well, and think it's something that they might have an edge on some others in the 11th with, whether people realize it or not.

 

My biggest worry if I'm a fan of the Generals is two-fold: first, whether or not my team can maintain the consistency that they've shown in the past two weeks, and whether or not they are able to handle the overall grind that will be coming out of the 43rd given the seeding possibilities."

 

 

 

Player of the Week - Ross Jenkins, Lafayette:

 

Sorry if I'm just rehashing tons from my past few weeks' huge updates, but I think what I said about Jenkins last week really rings true this week as well. Though he finished with only 8 points and 2 boards against Trinity, he was 4/4 from the field against a very tough and physical Trinity front line, and none were bigger than his game winner. The 11 and 7 that he posted against Station were much closer to, but still below his average as of late.

 

From last week: "Ross Jenkins, whose work is mentioned throughout this article already, seems to be breaking out. Each time I look in the box scores, I'm starting to expect more from his performances than I did earlier in the season. I've went back and forth on my evaluation of Jenkins quite a bit over the course of the past two seasons, but I'm really starting to settle on him as one of the premier bigs in the 11th, mentioning him in the same breath as Jones and Fucci and not worrying about looking foolish for doing so."

 

 

 

Upset Alert:

Henry Clay @ Lafayette, Tuesday, February 17

 

 

 

Team Rankings:

 

1. Lafayette:

 

At the moment, there might not be a team who is hotter than my #1 and team of the week. At the same time, my Shakespearian motif throughout this season has been "uneasy lies the head that wears the crown". Nothing has changed that this week and I wouldn't be shocked to see Henry Clay knock off the Generals to end their streak.

 

 

2. Lexington Catholic:

 

A great team, and the team that my head is still telling me is likely a better #1 pick than anyone else if I want to go the safe route, because hey, Lexington Catholic is consistent if nothing else.

 

Last week I'd mentioned Tanner Johnson's recent shooting slump, which he's now broken out of. However, that doesn't change the fact that the Knights narrowly escaped Richmond with a 3 point win over Madison Central, then turned around and lost a huge home game to LCA.

 

What I like about the Knights: they have the kind of depth that few teams in the region have.

 

Their top three of Tanner Johnson, Jarrod Griffin, and Michael Talbott is solid. Reese Ryan, a WKU QB commit, is a very solid, blue-collar "glue guy" who is a bit undersized but fights hard inside. Add to that the toughness and athleticism of fellow gridiron mates JJ Ogbogu and Donovan Morris, then top it off with the size of an experienced Walker Boothe, a young but talented Peter Whitman, and a very talented but still young Zan Payne (the son of UK assistant and former U of L Cardinal Kenny Payne). Taken together, you can see that the Knights have a lot of different combinations that they can play and get different contributions from.

 

At the same time, I've just had a feeling for most of the season that this just isn't the Knights' year. I don't see them winning the region unless they beat Dunbar (duh!) and then get a favorable draw in the regional tournament. Something about them just gives me the feeling that they are a bad shooting night away from going home early because this year they just don't have the kind of overwhelming talent that they have had in the past. I'm not sure they have a "take over" player on the level of a Sanford, Green, Graves, or Fields who you can just give the ball to and be content with telling everyone else to get out of the way regardless. That's not a knock on Johnson or Griffin, it's just that those names are fairly elite company from a 20 year history of one of the top programs in the State.

 

I can see the Knights winning the 11th in a scenario where they get to region have a game or two where they are able to get by without having to play their best, but I think that they may need a little more help from others in terms of a draw, upsets, etc. than most others probably do.

 

Picking the team who does knock them off is the toughest part, but the fact is that they'll face at least 3 "must win" games against teams like Dunbar, Henry Clay/Madison Central/Bryan Station, LCA/Lafayette to take it home. I think the odds are that one of those teams, most of which are more athletic overall (with the one that isn't being an LCA team that can tower over them), is just hot and, as opposed to year's past, there's not really much that Catholic can do about it in terms of matching them shot for shot, play for play, rebound for rebound. The Knights are the safest pick, but I'll throw caution into the wind in a crazy year like this one.

 

 

3. Lexington Christian Academy:

 

Oh LCA, just when I was about to hand you the crown, you let another challenger snatch it and, in the process, made me realize how young you still are in many ways. Yes, there are plenty of year's experience on your roster. The reason I call you inexperienced though, is that you really haven't been here before a ton of times. A new kid on the block who still has a lot to learn, you have a bright future and the potential to be one of the dominant programs in not only the 11th, but in the State as well. Nathan Valentine looks like the right man for the job and will probably be capable of leading you to the places that you want to go. However, for now, I'd analogize your program's overall stature on the State level with a reference to one of my all-time favorite shows The Wire, when Marlo Stanfield is talking with Chris Partlow about a young Michael Lee and makes an allusion to Michael Lee's potential when smiling and saying, "big paws on a puppy".

 

I say that because this past week's events show that there's still room for you to grow from that big puppy that is towering over the rest of it's litter into the top dog of any block that it looks like it may be destined to become. Along the way though, there'll be some moments where they fall and learn from it and take those lessons going forward. Fortunately for you, LCA, your team might have gotten the message and learned just that lesson already this season. If they are to win the 11th, then the rest of the year will need to be a bit of a crash course.

 

If you haven't caught on to what I'm talking about yet, it's LCA's defeat of Lexington Catholic and claiming the #1 seed in the 43rd outright, only to go to George Rogers Clark a few nights later and lose 79-65. No, Clark County isn't a bad team, but if you are going to win the region, you can't get caught up in the hangover of a big victory and/or fall into the pits of a trap game.

 

LCA is capable, and everyone has to start somewhere, but it's kind of hard to see a team who hasn't been to the regional tournament before getting there and winning it on their first try in a region as competitive as the 11th. Further, LCA hasn't won the district before, much less the region.

 

Long story short: the hangover/trap game against GRC is understandable, and there's nothing that they can do about it now to change things, and it's their choice whether or not to take it and turn it into something positive: i.e., learning the lesson that you just can't have those letdowns come tournament time. They have some kids who are experienced, but do they know how to win like they'll need to if they want to take the 11th?

 

 

4. Bryan Station:

 

Whoa! Bryan Station was #1 last week, now they are dropping like a rock? Well, there's a reason for that.

 

Let me start by saying I'm a fan of Station. I hope to see them do well. I really want to see them end one of the city's longest droughts (1989). Station was one of the teams that I sort of adopted for awhile when I lived in Lexington, and I've taken in tons of their games, especially during the Washington/Mack years. I like Station's talent. I think that Tommy Johnson is a good coach, that he'll do well there, and that he seems to be a good fit for the job.

 

Ok, lovefest now over, and I'll get to the huge pink elephant sitting in the corner, the one that I'm hoping is only a figment of my own imagination and/or only the product of message board rumors that you just hear from time to time.

 

Throughout the whole season, I've generally ignored people, which there have been more than a few of, when they told me that Ronnie Carson's eventual insertion into the Defender's lineup could wind up being detrimental to the team's chemistry.

 

I did this for a few reasons:

 

#1.) I want to see Ronnie Carson be successful. He's taken a lot of shots from people, missed a huge part of his senior year that is so crucial for evaluation, and just seems to have been swallowed and spit back up by part of the underbelly that some would consider is "what's wrong with high school basketball". That isn't to say that any teams in particular were perpetrators, or that Carson is a bad kid, just that he might have been listening to people who possibly didn't have purely benevolent motives at one time or another or just have been a talented kid being pulled in different directions.

 

#2.) It hadn't happened and there's no use trying to make a big deal about something that could be an issue. I wanted to take a clean slate into the whole deal because I honestly hadn't followed Carson much while he was at East Jessamine. I like to form my own opinions based on what I can take in and try not to let what I hear prejudice that, though it's sometimes impossible.

 

What I'm hearing now, however, is that Carson's increased role might be something that's ruffled feathers and actually spilled over on the sidelines during a recent game to the point that the rumors that I chose to ignore have become less gossipy and more foretelling. I'm not playing the blame game and saying it's Carson's fault. I'm not saying it's any specific teammates' fault either. I'm just repeating what I've been told. To be clear, I did not hear that there was anything physical or anything like that, just that there seemed to be some arguing that reached the point of noticeability. Again, I want to reiterate, that I'm not against Carson, that I hope it's not taken that I'm blaming him or blaming anyone else, just that things have reached the point that I'm addressing what has been stated in a few other channels.

 

What I am saying about this all: I hope that what I've been hearing is untrue, and will gleefully be wrong about it if that's how it is. If it is true, then it's sad because Station is a proud program that has, by my count, suffered through the longest regional title drought of any of the Lexington-Fayette Publics, and this is a year where they could have ended that. The talent is there. Last season and all the distractions that came with it are behind them. And now this. If there's validity to it, and again, I'm hoping there isn't, then I hope it's now or at least soon to be water under the bridge. This is the worst time of the year for chemistry issues, and there's no way that a divided Bryan Station goes on to win the region. The field is just too balanced and Station already has some holes in their overall game.

 

Here's to hoping that I'm dead wrong and the Defenders go on a successful run.

 

 

5. Dunbar:

 

In what's becoming routine, the duo of Jr. SG Darius Williams and So. PG Taveion Hollingsworth (Darius' video here and Taveion's video here) each dropped 25 and 24, respectively, in a huge road win over Henry Clay.

 

Adding in Jordan Lewis, who seems to be playing well as of late, and his 9 points, and Dontell Brown's 9 points and 8 rebounds, as well as Jeremy Ward's 4, Justin Kelley's 3, and PJ Corio's 1, and it's enough for an impressive 7 point road win over Henry Clay at the historic Al Prewitt Gynasium.

 

Dunbar is rounding into form and you should just go ahead and scratch any of their record before January. The team got to full strength for the first time of the season on January 9th, and since then, are 9-4, with wins over Henry Clay twice, Boyle County, Lafayette, Lexington Catholic, Manual, and Doss. Their losses came at the hands of LCA, Lexington Catholic, Bryan Station, and Wayne County.

 

If you can't tell from the above, that was one brutal 15 game stretch that will ensure that the Dawgs are battle tested come tournament time. They'll need to be just that though, as they face of with Lexington Catholic in a win-or-go home game in the first round of 43rd District play.

 

I really like this Dunbar team. They've flown under the radar for much of the season because people only saw their record and didn't understand all of the absences. Now back on track, the Dawg Pound, one of the best fan bases in the 11th, has reason to rock.

 

 

6. Henry Clay:

 

Isaiah "Pun" Tisdale's blood runs cold. He has no conscious when it comes to popping huge shots despite defenders who know he's going to be the guy taking it being draped all over him. The more I see him, the more I like his game. The more I see him, the more I wonder "what if" and how good this team would have been with he and big brother Jeremiah working together, but alas, that's a discussion for another day.

 

Lafayette began their 6 game winning streak with a 69-60 overtime victory over the Blue Devils on January 30th. This week, Henry Clay gets the chance to avenge that loss. To do so, they'll need someone, whether it be Felix Wilson, Dakahari Campbel, Leander Ridgeway, Colby Barnes, Tariq Smith, or Jordan Houston, to step up.

 

In their victory over Scott County, Dakahari Campbell was the guy to step up, connecting on 5 of 11 threes on his way to 15 points while Barnes and Houston snagged 10 and 8 boards, respectively, and Wilson dished out 7 assists.

 

In their win over Madison Central, it was Wilson who stepped up with 21 points to lead the way, and Houston who grabbed 13 boards to help give the Devils an edge on the glass.

 

Most signature wins, or even performances, by the Blue Devils show that someone has stepped up to provide at least 15 or so points alongside Tisdale.

 

Strange as it may sound though, there seem to be games where the Devils are what I'd call "too balanced". This team looks like they are at their best when Tisdale gets his 25-30, someone else steps up with 15+, a third player has 10-15, and the rest just make contributions of around a maximum of 5-7 points.

 

25+18+12+5+3+2, which would be a statline similar to what I've mentioned above, still adds up to 65 points (which is slightly above their average of 63 per game), and that's plenty for the kind of range that they'd need to be in to win a lot of games.

 

Again, I know the "too balanced" sounds weird, but I think the results show a team that is at their best when relying on their star for around 40% of their offensive production, one other play for around 25%, and a third and final for around 20%. Usually teams who are getting around 80-85% of their scoring production out of three kids is a bad thing, but I'm not really convinced that's the case with this group. A large part of that is that for a team who averages 63-65 points per, then having four players in double figures likely means that you've seen diminishing returns insofar as you've begun cannibalizing Tisdale's scoring punch with your scoring margins coming from players who just aren't as efficient.

 

While it isn't as simple as "give him the ball and watch him go" (ok... it kind of can be sometimes), this is a team that can win lots and lots of games by: letting Tisdale be the #1, having a kid like Campbell as the #2 (on that night) who gets the ball for an open three when the defense puts too much emphasis on stopping Tisdale and becomes susceptible to uncontested jumpers upon good ball reversal, and has someone (on that night) be the #3 who can find just enough ways to hurt you and has to be accounted for as well. Whether that #2 is Campbell or Wilson, or that #3 is Campbell, Wilson, or even Houston or Barnes getting put-backs off of good offensive rebounding opportunities, a quick look at the Devils' box scores and results leads me to believe that this is when they are at their most dangerous.

 

Right now, I have Henry Clay at the #6 spot because seeing them made me think that they are possibly susceptible to teams with size. Most think of Ballard as being better than Trinity (Spalding), yet it was the guard-oriented Bruins who Henry Clay played much closer. A loss to Lafayette (Ross Jenkins), a narrow win over Madison Central (Sam Jones). Isaiah Johnson of Scott County hurting them with points in the paint late.

 

In their two matchups, Dunbar's Dontell Brown has had 9 & 8 and 7 & 9 against the Devils, with the first being one of his first games back in action. In the Defenders' most recent victory over the Devils, Tequan Claitt had 14 & 9 and DeAndre Dishman 7 & 9. In their first victory, it was Dishman with 17 & 6 and Claitt with 11 & 8. As you can probably infer, even teams with bigs like Brown and Dishman, who are good but not considered amongst the region's elite post scorers, see those bigs beating their PPG averages when facing the Devils.

 

Luckily for Henry Clay, Lafayette and LCA, the two teams that probably have the most in terms of an overall size/production combo that would hurt them, cannot both make it to region. The fact that Henry Clay will play their district at home doesn't hurt either.

 

The bad news for the Devils is that their road begins with a tough test against Scott County, who they've already beaten twice this season. It's tough to beat a good team three times in a row, and even harder to do when Billy Hicks is the coach you are trying to do it against, but to even make it to region, that's exactly what they'll need to do.

 

Assuming they get past the Scott County game and that Lafayette beats Tates Creek, one of the two of LCA and Lafayette will be at region. Dunbar, a team that Henry Clay has struggled with this season, is also a possibility to be in an opposite bracket from the aforementioned. Finally, Madison Central, who Henry Clay only narrowly beat a few weeks ago, should walk through their district, and has Sam Jones, who possibly hasn't peaked yet considering all the time he sat out with injury.

 

Given the number of dangerous match-ups that Henry Clay will face, I put them in the same boat as a team like Lexington Catholic insofar as I think someone gets them, but can't really say with confidence who that is. I expect them to avenge last year's regional final loss and by beating Scott County, then to go on and win one or possibly even two games in the region (according to the draw).

 

I probably sound like a broken record right now when talking about "iso" guys you let take over in the clutch, but, in Tisdale, they have something that some of the other team's just don't have insofar as they can just ride in a close game by giving him the ball and letting him create. That, and the fact that Tisdale could just blow up and go for 40 in any given game will mean a lot in tournament play. At the end of the day though, I just see their lack of size and overall consistency that the jury could still be out on keeping them from being "the one".

 

 

7. Madison Central:

 

Sam Jones is back, and as mentioned above, might not have reached his peak yet given that his season is practically still less than one month old (his first game back from a nasty concussion was on 1/17).

 

I still like this team. They probably walk through their district, and are the non-Lexington (read: 42nd or 43rd) team that no one is wanting to draw with.

 

One, Allen Feldhaus can coach. His system might not be flashy, but dude knows the game. His teams play tough, but smart, and are athletic enough to match up with you if they have to, despite their preference of playing at a fairly controlled pace.

 

Two, the fact that Madison Central can make it ugly and that playing that style could really frustrate a team like a Lafayette, Dunbar, Bryan Station, or even Henry Clay works in their favor.

 

In a year where the crop of bigs in the 11th is down, the Indians can run through Jones. They are more than just that though, as Cameron Thomas is a young and still emerging wing who is both athletic and talented enough to be a more than capable #2 type option offensively. He honestly hasn't had the type of year that I expected from him so far this season, but I still wouldn't count him out, nor would I say he's had a "bad" year considering.

 

Kirkland Humphrey's ability to shoot the basketball, though somewhat streaky, means that the Indians have a legitimate weapon who is a consistent #3 type option that spaces the floor and can prevent teams from focusing too heavily on Jones and/or Thomas. He had a team high 27 on 7 of 8 three point attempts in last week's narrow loss to Lexington Catholic. Whereas Thomas is more likely to be a guy who creates for himself, Humphrey is more reliant on playing off of others, and their mix of skills creates a nice combination that works well in unison.

 

Terique Miller, a junior guard, is fine as the team's #4 type offensive option on most nights. He had 16 & 5 against Catholic while Cameron Thomas was going through an off-night, going 4 of 9 from distance. That, and his 7 attempts from three against Henry Clay or 10 against Trinity are evidence that Coach Feldhaus gives him the green light to shoot. The fact that he's a glue guy who can get you a few boards, assists, steals, or even blocks doesn't hurt either.

 

John Williams, another junior guard, rounds out the lineup. Stats indicate that he rebounds well for his position, and while he doesn't score a great deal, is still a kid who brings value in terms of what he can do defensively, as it isn't unusual for Willliams to draw some of the opposition's better scorers.

 

Throw in some kids like 6'3 Sr. Griffin Hotchkiss, 6'1 Jr. Grant Brockman, 5'10 Jr. Seth Richardson, and 6'1 Jr. Jacob Taylor and you have a team that might lack size overall, but still has a capable big and athletic wing that they've surrounded by solid and experienced perimeter shooters.

 

As mentioned earlier, I think they roll through District with little resistance, so, unlike any team ahead of them, there's minimal chance they are beaten in a district elimination game. Of the teams still standing after that, there are a few that they against better than others, but like Central, we'll sit back and watch the chaos of those games unfold before delving into that topic any further than saying they probably match up better with Catholic, Henry Clay, Dunbar, but not as well against LCA or Lafayette. A matchup with Station would, in my opinion, be a bit of a wildcard, as it's something of a contrast in styles and one that you could see unfolding a few different ways.

 

The draw is always huge, and Central, being outside of the 42nd or 43rd, could really benefit but could just as easily see a nightmare unfold. At the end of the day, they probably have to play a game or maybe even two either at or "slightly above their heads" to win it all.

 

Looking at the big picture with the Catholic game now behind us, I'm going to say that how far they go depends on how well they shoot the ball.

 

Outside of an awful draw, their biggest obstacles would be: 1.) finding a way to overcome an off shooting night, 2.) falling behind and have to abandon their design and style of play (as they did in the Lexington Catholic in trailing by as many as 17 in the second half)... they aren't really a team that is built to play from behind, 3.) staying out of foul trouble, especially if it's Jones or Thomas, and 4.) the possibility that they get pounded on the glass by a group who rebounds well as a team.

 

Keep in mind that the regional tournament returns to Richmond this season, and that Central typically plays well in their own backyard. They have a penchant for winning the whole thing in years just like this one (i.e., a balanced field with no dominant Lexington-Fayette Public and Scott County and/or Lexington Catholic being a little down).

 

 

8. Scott County:

 

After an impressive showing last week, Coach Hick's bunch came away with a trio of 13 point victories this one. In the finale, it was a road game to former 8th Region rival in Grant County who is .500 on the year, on Thursday, a similar victory when hosting a 5-21 Ryle. They did, however, pick up a quality win in their first game by topping George Rogers Clark (GRC had lost by 14 at Mason County on 2/6, got some rest before facing Scott Co on 2/11, and ending a tough stretch with a huge home victory over LCA by 14 on 2/14.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that while this week isn't really something to sneeze at, it's not something you really write home about either. Scott County has home contests with Louisville Eastern on 2/17 and Dunbar on 2/20 to conclude the season, and those two should be more indicative of what kind of progress they've made.

 

A good team who is still getting better, the Cardinals are certainly in my top 8, but given their position, would be the team whose regional run would likely surprise me most.

 

Like Catholic, there are a lot of teams who want to take a shot at the team who has owned the throne for so many years, and this seems to be an opportune time for them to get the Cardinals.

 

If they were seen as just another team, then maybe they are more dangerous as they might be overlooked, but I don't know if this team has the experience and talent to survive as the hunted.

 

 

9. Tates Creek:

 

Don't write off the Commodores just yet. They are a solid team who has a ton of seniors that will be looking to defend their home court and extend their careers.

 

In last week's 21 point loss to Bryan Station, the Dores led by 2 after 1 quarter, trailed by 4 at the half, and 9 after 3 before it was blown wide open in the 4th. They'd also had respectable consecutive 13 point losses at LCA and Dunbar that preceded that. They also beat Ryle by 9 on 2/14 this past week.

 

The Dores will finish the year by hosting Western Hills on 2/18, so they'll have plenty of time to put in some different things that they feel they need to do to overcome Lafayette.

 

 

10. Woodford County:

 

Huge win over West Jessamine last week was followed up with a tough loss to Mercer County this week. Hundley is capable and his kids have been there before, which gives them an edge over the teams below them. I'm still expecting this team to come out of their district, though it's not going to be a walk in the park.

 

 

11. Sayre:

 

Sneaky good. 6'7 forward Quinn Pergande is an inside/outside threat that would start or play lots of minutes for most in the 11th. Sophomore Jake Duby, who transferred from Lafayette, is a decent scorer. Robbie Goodman is a coach's son who can hit open shots. Sr. Alexander Webb, Jr. Jack Henderson, Sr. Spencer Sabharwal, So. Will Newton, and So. Kaden Silverburg will also be counted on.

 

The Spartan's biggest win was a 6 point victory over Frankfort in the All A Classic. They followed that up with a 14 point loss to LCA.

 

Sayre is a young team despite having a senior like Pergande as their centerpiece. They'll look to send him out with a huge upset that catapults them into the regional tournament and builds momentum for their future.

 

 

 

12. Frankfort:

 

They have the athleticism to be capable of pulling an upset, and won't be a gimme for anyone, but have been on a slide as of late as well. They have beaten Woodford County, and took Lafayette to overtime in early January.

 

Wing Jalen Washington is a U of L football commit at the WR position, and he, junior guard Malik Frank, and forward Anthony Robinson are all nice running mates. Robinson, Washington, and Frank are all averaging close to double figures. Robinson is great on the boards, as is Washington. Seniors Travis Skelton, Rontez Mitchell, and Jeff Quire, as well as junior Matthew Smith will round out the lineup.

 

Because of their athleticism, Frankfort is capable of playing with most of the teams in the top 8 or 9 in a way that those in the next tier just aren't. However, Frankfort's bugaboo has been teams who play zone well, as they aren't seen as an especially threatening team in terms of perimeter shooting.

 

Fortunately for the Panthers, many of the Lexington area teams that they may face aren't traditional zone teams either, so there's a chance that they don't change that up just for Frankfort or that they aren't as used to playing it and thus aren't as effective in it against them.

 

However you slice it, the Panthers have been absolutely blown out by Lex Cath earlier in the season, beaten 6-21 Franklin County twice by a total of 8 combined points, suffered two losses to Sayre, and were the victims of a 74-58 beatdown by Woodford County.

 

Like most of the teams around them, it's going to take one of their best efforts just to be in the game late, though anything is possible.

 

 

13. Madison Southern:

 

Have also beaten Woodford County, and blew out Model early. Capable of hanging in there for awhile with some teams, but probably doesn't have the fire power to beat one of the top 8 in anything other than what would be considered a huge upset. Madison Central beat them 69-41 in the first game of the season and played a lot of kids in doing so.

 

 

14. Model:

 

Have also beaten Woodford County, but took a tough loss to Madison Southern earlier in the year. They are probably more competitive than some might think, but they've also understandably played a soft schedule and will be a pretty big underdog who might put a scare in someone in the top 9 for a half before the wheels come off late.

 

 

 

Upcoming Games:

 

 

Monday, Feb. 16:

 

Boyle Co. @ Lexington Christian Academy

 

 

Tuesday, Feb. 17:

 

Henry Clay @ Lafayette

Lexington Catholic @ Lincoln Co.

Eastern @ Scott Co.

West Jessamine @ Dunbar

 

 

Thursday, Feb. 19:

 

Henry Clay @ George Rogers Clark

Lexington Christian Academy @ Bryan Station

 

 

Friday, Feb. 20:

 

Dunbar @ Scott Co.

Boyle Co. @ Lafayette

Wayne Co. @ Lexington Catholic

Covington Catholic @ Madison Central

[JokersWild24]

Just to have some fun, I also made my own rankings for the State, broken down into tiers, and will attach it, with the 11th Region teams bolded & italicized below.

 

I do think it'd be a fun experiment to see how many 11th Region teams others see as top 20-25 worthy.

 

Feel free to sound off and disagree. It's all good, and reasonable minds can differ.

 

 

 

1. Ballard

2. Henderson County

3. Trinity

4. Knott County Central

5. Taylor County

6. Owensboro

7. Central

 

8. Hopkinsville

9. Covington Catholic

10. Boyle Co.

11. Manual

 

12. Lafayette

13. Lexington Catholic

14. Doss

15. Wayne Co.

16. Lexington Christian Academy

17. Dunbar

18. Bryan Station

19. Mason Co.

20. Newport Central Catholic

21. Henry Clay

 

22. Lincoln Co.

23. Holmes

24. Apollo

25. Southwestern

 

26. Madison Central

27. Clay Co.

28. Waggener

29. St. Xavier

30. Bowling Green

31. Warren Central

32. Perry Co. Central

33. Scott Co.

34. Johnson Central

35. Oldham Co.

[mooremiller31]

1. Bryan Station

2. LCA

3. Lexington Catholic

4. Dunbar/Lafayette

6. Henry Clay

7. Scott County

8. Madison Central

9. Tates Creek

10. Woodford County

11. Model

12. Sayre

13. Frankfort

14. Franklin County

15. Madison Southern

16. Berea

17. Western Hills

[Juke]

Another wild week in the 11th have passed, some news is breaking, and we've got a shakeup to our rankings. What else is new?

 

We've seen some games with huge implications this week, including LCA's going to Lexington Catholic and beating the Knights to take the #1 seed in the 43rd, which for my money, is toughest district in the State. We've also seen Lafayette knock off Trinity and serve notice that they are going to be a force for anyone as they ride an impressive streak that also includes a win over Bryan Station that's left a buzz of it's own.

 

With our Lexington-area district match-ups now set, let's take a look at what's going on around the 11th, including some nuggets in the team capsules that you'll definitely want to check out.

 

 

 

Team of the Week - Lafayette:

 

If you haven't noticed, I typically try to spread my team of the week out quite a bit and give lots of love and recognition to a few different teams because let's face it, there's plenty in a region this deep who are deserving. I have a hard time giving this award to the same team in such close succession, but right now there's no denying the Generals and my giving them the award as recently as two weeks ago isn't enough to change that.

 

This is a team that few people really gave much of a chance this year, mainly because people saw Jackson Davis graduating and thought, "how will they ever replace him?". Honestly, I wasn't one of the people in that camp, and even had others questioning me on why I'd had them so high. Fact is, I always had my concerns about how much Davis might have hindered the overall psyche of the team. Without saying much else, I think it's probably best left at saying that their kids probably have a better chemistry as a whole this year.

 

I'll call this team "the State's best #4 seed in any district". Since dropping a tough one to Dunbar on January 27, Lafayette's balance has guided them to six straight wins, including victories over Henry Clay, LCA, Bryan Station, and Trinity during that stretch.

 

Here's what I said about them two weeks ago, at the time, 6th Man TJ Downey was my Player of the Week:

 

"With the emergence of this week’s player of the week, TJ Downey, the Generals join the ranks of my Team of the Week, which so far this season, includes Lexington Catholic (x2), Bryan Station, Dunbar, Lexington Christian Academy, and Henry Clay. The Generals are a bit inconsistent, but I’ll give them some love now that Player of the Week TJ Downey, appears to have emerged and provides a consistent scoring threat to go alongside Ross Jenkins (who had 27 points, 16 boards, and 5 blocks to lead the way against Henry Clay).

 

With Downey’s providing consistent scoring, the trio of Lucky Jackson, Harrison Lane, and Ross Jenkins becomes even more dangerous, as you can’t put too much focus on any one player without chancing the rest beating you. Throw in Jaelin Jenkins, Jajuante Carpenter, William Watkins, and Cameron Greenup to round things out, and you can see that the Generals have some depth.

 

While the biggest question right now might be who gets the ball if you have to clear out and let someone go one-on-one and create given that the Generals don’t have an Isaiah Tisdale, Darius Williams, Matt Rose, or Tanner Johnson, they are still dangerous because holding any one player individually to, say, half of their average, doesn’t mean that you are guaranteed to beat them. Consistently inconsistent so far this season, they are definitely a fun team to follow and not someone I’d want to play in a one-off."

 

Here are some relevant bits from what I had to say about Lafayette this past week:

 

"Jajuante Carpenter, a kid who I saw last year and fell in love with his game and potential, wasn't the player I expected him to be early in the season. However, he's also coming on as of late, as he dropped 19 on Perry Central and 14 on Franklin Co."

 

"Yes, yes, Lafayette still has BGP favorite Dontavion "Lucky" Jackson, and Harrison Lane is still one of the coldest snipers in the LFC area, so don't think I've forgotten about them.

 

I'm a fan of Michael Mendenhall and his system, and think that anyone overlooking Lafayette should think again. I like the General's depth as well, and think it's something that they might have an edge on some others in the 11th with, whether people realize it or not.

 

My biggest worry if I'm a fan of the Generals is two-fold: first, whether or not my team can maintain the consistency that they've shown in the past two weeks, and whether or not they are able to handle the overall grind that will be coming out of the 43rd given the seeding possibilities."

 

 

 

Player of the Week - Ross Jenkins, Lafayette:

 

Sorry if I'm just rehashing tons from my past few weeks' huge updates, but I think what I said about Jenkins last week really rings true this week as well. Though he finished with only 8 points and 2 boards against Trinity, he was 4/4 from the field against a very tough and physical Trinity front line, and none were bigger than his game winner. The 11 and 7 that he posted against Station were much closer to, but still below his average as of late.

 

From last week: "Ross Jenkins, whose work is mentioned throughout this article already, seems to be breaking out. Each time I look in the box scores, I'm starting to expect more from his performances than I did earlier in the season. I've went back and forth on my evaluation of Jenkins quite a bit over the course of the past two seasons, but I'm really starting to settle on him as one of the premier bigs in the 11th, mentioning him in the same breath as Jones and Fucci and not worrying about looking foolish for doing so."

 

 

 

Upset Alert:

Henry Clay @ Lafayette, Tuesday, February 17

 

 

 

Team Rankings:

 

1. Lafayette:

 

At the moment, there might not be a team who is hotter than my #1 and team of the week. At the same time, my Shakespearian motif throughout this season has been "uneasy lies the head that wears the crown". Nothing has changed that this week and I wouldn't be shocked to see Henry Clay knock off the Generals to end their streak.

 

 

2. Lexington Catholic:

 

A great team, and the team that my head is still telling me is likely a better #1 pick than anyone else if I want to go the safe route, because hey, Lexington Catholic is consistent if nothing else.

 

Last week I'd mentioned Tanner Johnson's recent shooting slump, which he's now broken out of. However, that doesn't change the fact that the Knights narrowly escaped Richmond with a 3 point win over Madison Central, then turned around and lost a huge home game to LCA.

 

What I like about the Knights: they have the kind of depth that few teams in the region have.

 

Their top three of Tanner Johnson, Jarrod Griffin, and Michael Talbott is solid. Reese Ryan, a WKU QB commit, is a very solid, blue-collar "glue guy" who is a bit undersized but fights hard inside. Add to that the toughness and athleticism of fellow gridiron mates JJ Ogbogu and Donovan Morris, then top it off with the size of an experienced Walker Boothe, a young but talented Peter Whitman, and a very talented but still young Zan Payne (the son of UK assistant and former U of L Cardinal Kenny Payne). Taken together, you can see that the Knights have a lot of different combinations that they can play and get different contributions from.

 

At the same time, I've just had a feeling for most of the season that this just isn't the Knights' year. I don't see them winning the region unless they beat Dunbar (duh!) and then get a favorable draw in the regional tournament. Something about them just gives me the feeling that they are a bad shooting night away from going home early because this year they just don't have the kind of overwhelming talent that they have had in the past. I'm not sure they have a "take over" player on the level of a Sanford, Green, Graves, or Fields who you can just give the ball to and be content with telling everyone else to get out of the way regardless. That's not a knock on Johnson or Griffin, it's just that those names are fairly elite company from a 20 year history of one of the top programs in the State.

 

I can see the Knights winning the 11th in a scenario where they get to region have a game or two where they are able to get by without having to play their best, but I think that they may need a little more help from others in terms of a draw, upsets, etc. than most others probably do.

 

Picking the team who does knock them off is the toughest part, but the fact is that they'll face at least 3 "must win" games against teams like Dunbar, Henry Clay/Madison Central/Bryan Station, LCA/Lafayette to take it home. I think the odds are that one of those teams, most of which are more athletic overall (with the one that isn't being an LCA team that can tower over them), is just hot and, as opposed to year's past, there's not really much that Catholic can do about it in terms of matching them shot for shot, play for play, rebound for rebound. The Knights are the safest pick, but I'll throw caution into the wind in a crazy year like this one.

 

 

3. Lexington Christian Academy:

 

Oh LCA, just when I was about to hand you the crown, you let another challenger snatch it and, in the process, made me realize how young you still are in many ways. Yes, there are plenty of year's experience on your roster. The reason I call you inexperienced though, is that you really haven't been here before a ton of times. A new kid on the block who still has a lot to learn, you have a bright future and the potential to be one of the dominant programs in not only the 11th, but in the State as well. Nathan Valentine looks like the right man for the job and will probably be capable of leading you to the places that you want to go. However, for now, I'd analogize your program's overall stature on the State level with a reference to one of my all-time favorite shows The Wire, when Marlo Stanfield is talking with Chris Partlow about a young Michael Lee and makes an allusion to Michael Lee's potential when smiling and saying, "big paws on a puppy".

 

I say that because this past week's events show that there's still room for you to grow from that big puppy that is towering over the rest of it's litter into the top dog of any block that it looks like it may be destined to become. Along the way though, there'll be some moments where they fall and learn from it and take those lessons going forward. Fortunately for you, LCA, your team might have gotten the message and learned just that lesson already this season. If they are to win the 11th, then the rest of the year will need to be a bit of a crash course.

 

If you haven't caught on to what I'm talking about yet, it's LCA's defeat of Lexington Catholic and claiming the #1 seed in the 43rd outright, only to go to George Rogers Clark a few nights later and lose 79-65. No, Clark County isn't a bad team, but if you are going to win the region, you can't get caught up in the hangover of a big victory and/or fall into the pits of a trap game.

 

LCA is capable, and everyone has to start somewhere, but it's kind of hard to see a team who hasn't been to the regional tournament before getting there and winning it on their first try in a region as competitive as the 11th. Further, LCA hasn't won the district before, much less the region.

 

Long story short: the hangover/trap game against GRC is understandable, and there's nothing that they can do about it now to change things, and it's their choice whether or not to take it and turn it into something positive: i.e., learning the lesson that you just can't have those letdowns come tournament time. They have some kids who are experienced, but do they know how to win like they'll need to if they want to take the 11th?

 

 

4. Bryan Station:

 

Whoa! Bryan Station was #1 last week, now they are dropping like a rock? Well, there's a reason for that.

 

Let me start by saying I'm a fan of Station. I hope to see them do well. I really want to see them end one of the city's longest droughts (1989). Station was one of the teams that I sort of adopted for awhile when I lived in Lexington, and I've taken in tons of their games, especially during the Washington/Mack years. I like Station's talent. I think that Tommy Johnson is a good coach, that he'll do well there, and that he seems to be a good fit for the job.

 

Ok, lovefest now over, and I'll get to the huge pink elephant sitting in the corner, the one that I'm hoping is only a figment of my own imagination and/or only the product of message board rumors that you just hear from time to time.

 

Throughout the whole season, I've generally ignored people, which there have been more than a few of, when they told me that Ronnie Carson's eventual insertion into the Defender's lineup could wind up being detrimental to the team's chemistry.

 

I did this for a few reasons:

 

#1.) I want to see Ronnie Carson be successful. He's taken a lot of shots from people, missed a huge part of his senior year that is so crucial for evaluation, and just seems to have been swallowed and spit back up by part of the underbelly that some would consider is "what's wrong with high school basketball". That isn't to say that any teams in particular were perpetrators, or that Carson is a bad kid, just that he might have been listening to people who possibly didn't have purely benevolent motives at one time or another or just have been a talented kid being pulled in different directions.

 

#2.) It hadn't happened and there's no use trying to make a big deal about something that could be an issue. I wanted to take a clean slate into the whole deal because I honestly hadn't followed Carson much while he was at East Jessamine. I like to form my own opinions based on what I can take in and try not to let what I hear prejudice that, though it's sometimes impossible.

 

What I'm hearing now, however, is that Carson's increased role might be something that's ruffled feathers and actually spilled over on the sidelines during a recent game to the point that the rumors that I chose to ignore have become less gossipy and more foretelling. I'm not playing the blame game and saying it's Carson's fault. I'm not saying it's any specific teammates' fault either. I'm just repeating what I've been told. To be clear, I did not hear that there was anything physical or anything like that, just that there seemed to be some arguing that reached the point of noticeability. Again, I want to reiterate, that I'm not against Carson, that I hope it's not taken that I'm blaming him or blaming anyone else, just that things have reached the point that I'm addressing what has been stated in a few other channels.

 

What I am saying about this all: I hope that what I've been hearing is untrue, and will gleefully be wrong about it if that's how it is. If it is true, then it's sad because Station is a proud program that has, by my count, suffered through the longest regional title drought of any of the Lexington-Fayette Publics, and this is a year where they could have ended that. The talent is there. Last season and all the distractions that came with it are behind them. And now this. If there's validity to it, and again, I'm hoping there isn't, then I hope it's now or at least soon to be water under the bridge. This is the worst time of the year for chemistry issues, and there's no way that a divided Bryan Station goes on to win the region. The field is just too balanced and Station already has some holes in their overall game.

 

Here's to hoping that I'm dead wrong and the Defenders go on a successful run.

 

 

5. Dunbar:

 

In what's becoming routine, the duo of Jr. SG Darius Williams and So. PG Taveion Hollingsworth (Darius' video here and Taveion's video here) each dropped 25 and 24, respectively, in a huge road win over Henry Clay.

 

Adding in Jordan Lewis, who seems to be playing well as of late, and his 9 points, and Dontell Brown's 9 points and 8 rebounds, as well as Jeremy Ward's 4, Justin Kelley's 3, and PJ Corio's 1, and it's enough for an impressive 7 point road win over Henry Clay at the historic Al Prewitt Gynasium.

 

Dunbar is rounding into form and you should just go ahead and scratch any of their record before January. The team got to full strength for the first time of the season on January 9th, and since then, are 9-4, with wins over Henry Clay twice, Boyle County, Lafayette, Lexington Catholic, Manual, and Doss. Their losses came at the hands of LCA, Lexington Catholic, Bryan Station, and Wayne County.

 

If you can't tell from the above, that was one brutal 15 game stretch that will ensure that the Dawgs are battle tested come tournament time. They'll need to be just that though, as they face of with Lexington Catholic in a win-or-go home game in the first round of 43rd District play.

 

I really like this Dunbar team. They've flown under the radar for much of the season because people only saw their record and didn't understand all of the absences. Now back on track, the Dawg Pound, one of the best fan bases in the 11th, has reason to rock.

 

 

6. Henry Clay:

 

Isaiah "Pun" Tisdale's blood runs cold. He has no conscious when it comes to popping huge shots despite defenders who know he's going to be the guy taking it being draped all over him. The more I see him, the more I like his game. The more I see him, the more I wonder "what if" and how good this team would have been with he and big brother Jeremiah working together, but alas, that's a discussion for another day.

 

Lafayette began their 6 game winning streak with a 69-60 overtime victory over the Blue Devils on January 30th. This week, Henry Clay gets the chance to avenge that loss. To do so, they'll need someone, whether it be Felix Wilson, Dakahari Campbel, Leander Ridgeway, Colby Barnes, Tariq Smith, or Jordan Houston, to step up.

 

In their victory over Scott County, Dakahari Campbell was the guy to step up, connecting on 5 of 11 threes on his way to 15 points while Barnes and Houston snagged 10 and 8 boards, respectively, and Wilson dished out 7 assists.

 

In their win over Madison Central, it was Wilson who stepped up with 21 points to lead the way, and Houston who grabbed 13 boards to help give the Devils an edge on the glass.

 

Most signature wins, or even performances, by the Blue Devils show that someone has stepped up to provide at least 15 or so points alongside Tisdale.

 

Strange as it may sound though, there seem to be games where the Devils are what I'd call "too balanced". This team looks like they are at their best when Tisdale gets his 25-30, someone else steps up with 15+, a third player has 10-15, and the rest just make contributions of around a maximum of 5-7 points.

 

25+18+12+5+3+2, which would be a statline similar to what I've mentioned above, still adds up to 65 points (which is slightly above their average of 63 per game), and that's plenty for the kind of range that they'd need to be in to win a lot of games.

 

Again, I know the "too balanced" sounds weird, but I think the results show a team that is at their best when relying on their star for around 40% of their offensive production, one other play for around 25%, and a third and final for around 20%. Usually teams who are getting around 80-85% of their scoring production out of three kids is a bad thing, but I'm not really convinced that's the case with this group. A large part of that is that for a team who averages 63-65 points per, then having four players in double figures likely means that you've seen diminishing returns insofar as you've begun cannibalizing Tisdale's scoring punch with your scoring margins coming from players who just aren't as efficient.

 

While it isn't as simple as "give him the ball and watch him go" (ok... it kind of can be sometimes), this is a team that can win lots and lots of games by: letting Tisdale be the #1, having a kid like Campbell as the #2 (on that night) who gets the ball for an open three when the defense puts too much emphasis on stopping Tisdale and becomes susceptible to uncontested jumpers upon good ball reversal, and has someone (on that night) be the #3 who can find just enough ways to hurt you and has to be accounted for as well. Whether that #2 is Campbell or Wilson, or that #3 is Campbell, Wilson, or even Houston or Barnes getting put-backs off of good offensive rebounding opportunities, a quick look at the Devils' box scores and results leads me to believe that this is when they are at their most dangerous.

 

Right now, I have Henry Clay at the #6 spot because seeing them made me think that they are possibly susceptible to teams with size. Most think of Ballard as being better than Trinity (Spalding), yet it was the guard-oriented Bruins who Henry Clay played much closer. A loss to Lafayette (Ross Jenkins), a narrow win over Madison Central (Sam Jones). Isaiah Johnson of Scott County hurting them with points in the paint late.

 

In their two matchups, Dunbar's Dontell Brown has had 9 & 8 and 7 & 9 against the Devils, with the first being one of his first games back in action. In the Defenders' most recent victory over the Devils, Tequan Claitt had 14 & 9 and DeAndre Dishman 7 & 9. In their first victory, it was Dishman with 17 & 6 and Claitt with 11 & 8. As you can probably infer, even teams with bigs like Brown and Dishman, who are good but not considered amongst the region's elite post scorers, see those bigs beating their PPG averages when facing the Devils.

 

Luckily for Henry Clay, Lafayette and LCA, the two teams that probably have the most in terms of an overall size/production combo that would hurt them, cannot both make it to region. The fact that Henry Clay will play their district at home doesn't hurt either.

 

The bad news for the Devils is that their road begins with a tough test against Scott County, who they've already beaten twice this season. It's tough to beat a good team three times in a row, and even harder to do when Billy Hicks is the coach you are trying to do it against, but to even make it to region, that's exactly what they'll need to do.

 

Assuming they get past the Scott County game and that Lafayette beats Tates Creek, one of the two of LCA and Lafayette will be at region. Dunbar, a team that Henry Clay has struggled with this season, is also a possibility to be in an opposite bracket from the aforementioned. Finally, Madison Central, who Henry Clay only narrowly beat a few weeks ago, should walk through their district, and has Sam Jones, who possibly hasn't peaked yet considering all the time he sat out with injury.

 

Given the number of dangerous match-ups that Henry Clay will face, I put them in the same boat as a team like Lexington Catholic insofar as I think someone gets them, but can't really say with confidence who that is. I expect them to avenge last year's regional final loss and by beating Scott County, then to go on and win one or possibly even two games in the region (according to the draw).

 

I probably sound like a broken record right now when talking about "iso" guys you let take over in the clutch, but, in Tisdale, they have something that some of the other team's just don't have insofar as they can just ride in a close game by giving him the ball and letting him create. That, and the fact that Tisdale could just blow up and go for 40 in any given game will mean a lot in tournament play. At the end of the day though, I just see their lack of size and overall consistency that the jury could still be out on keeping them from being "the one".

 

 

7. Madison Central:

 

Sam Jones is back, and as mentioned above, might not have reached his peak yet given that his season is practically still less than one month old (his first game back from a nasty concussion was on 1/17).

 

I still like this team. They probably walk through their district, and are the non-Lexington (read: 42nd or 43rd) team that no one is wanting to draw with.

 

One, Allen Feldhaus can coach. His system might not be flashy, but dude knows the game. His teams play tough, but smart, and are athletic enough to match up with you if they have to, despite their preference of playing at a fairly controlled pace.

 

Two, the fact that Madison Central can make it ugly and that playing that style could really frustrate a team like a Lafayette, Dunbar, Bryan Station, or even Henry Clay works in their favor.

 

In a year where the crop of bigs in the 11th is down, the Indians can run through Jones. They are more than just that though, as Cameron Thomas is a young and still emerging wing who is both athletic and talented enough to be a more than capable #2 type option offensively. He honestly hasn't had the type of year that I expected from him so far this season, but I still wouldn't count him out, nor would I say he's had a "bad" year considering.

 

Kirkland Humphrey's ability to shoot the basketball, though somewhat streaky, means that the Indians have a legitimate weapon who is a consistent #3 type option that spaces the floor and can prevent teams from focusing too heavily on Jones and/or Thomas. He had a team high 27 on 7 of 8 three point attempts in last week's narrow loss to Lexington Catholic. Whereas Thomas is more likely to be a guy who creates for himself, Humphrey is more reliant on playing off of others, and their mix of skills creates a nice combination that works well in unison.

 

Terique Miller, a junior guard, is fine as the team's #4 type offensive option on most nights. He had 16 & 5 against Catholic while Cameron Thomas was going through an off-night, going 4 of 9 from distance. That, and his 7 attempts from three against Henry Clay or 10 against Trinity are evidence that Coach Feldhaus gives him the green light to shoot. The fact that he's a glue guy who can get you a few boards, assists, steals, or even blocks doesn't hurt either.

 

John Williams, another junior guard, rounds out the lineup. Stats indicate that he rebounds well for his position, and while he doesn't score a great deal, is still a kid who brings value in terms of what he can do defensively, as it isn't unusual for Willliams to draw some of the opposition's better scorers.

 

Throw in some kids like 6'3 Sr. Griffin Hotchkiss, 6'1 Jr. Grant Brockman, 5'10 Jr. Seth Richardson, and 6'1 Jr. Jacob Taylor and you have a team that might lack size overall, but still has a capable big and athletic wing that they've surrounded by solid and experienced perimeter shooters.

 

As mentioned earlier, I think they roll through District with little resistance, so, unlike any team ahead of them, there's minimal chance they are beaten in a district elimination game. Of the teams still standing after that, there are a few that they against better than others, but like Central, we'll sit back and watch the chaos of those games unfold before delving into that topic any further than saying they probably match up better with Catholic, Henry Clay, Dunbar, but not as well against LCA or Lafayette. A matchup with Station would, in my opinion, be a bit of a wildcard, as it's something of a contrast in styles and one that you could see unfolding a few different ways.

 

The draw is always huge, and Central, being outside of the 42nd or 43rd, could really benefit but could just as easily see a nightmare unfold. At the end of the day, they probably have to play a game or maybe even two either at or "slightly above their heads" to win it all.

 

Looking at the big picture with the Catholic game now behind us, I'm going to say that how far they go depends on how well they shoot the ball.

 

Outside of an awful draw, their biggest obstacles would be: 1.) finding a way to overcome an off shooting night, 2.) falling behind and have to abandon their design and style of play (as they did in the Lexington Catholic in trailing by as many as 17 in the second half)... they aren't really a team that is built to play from behind, 3.) staying out of foul trouble, especially if it's Jones or Thomas, and 4.) the possibility that they get pounded on the glass by a group who rebounds well as a team.

 

Keep in mind that the regional tournament returns to Richmond this season, and that Central typically plays well in their own backyard. They have a penchant for winning the whole thing in years just like this one (i.e., a balanced field with no dominant Lexington-Fayette Public and Scott County and/or Lexington Catholic being a little down).

 

 

8. Scott County:

 

After an impressive showing last week, Coach Hick's bunch came away with a trio of 13 point victories this one. In the finale, it was a road game to former 8th Region rival in Grant County who is .500 on the year, on Thursday, a similar victory when hosting a 5-21 Ryle. They did, however, pick up a quality win in their first game by topping George Rogers Clark (GRC had lost by 14 at Mason County on 2/6, got some rest before facing Scott Co on 2/11, and ending a tough stretch with a huge home victory over LCA by 14 on 2/14.

 

The point I'm trying to make is that while this week isn't really something to sneeze at, it's not something you really write home about either. Scott County has home contests with Louisville Eastern on 2/17 and Dunbar on 2/20 to conclude the season, and those two should be more indicative of what kind of progress they've made.

 

A good team who is still getting better, the Cardinals are certainly in my top 8, but given their position, would be the team whose regional run would likely surprise me most.

 

Like Catholic, there are a lot of teams who want to take a shot at the team who has owned the throne for so many years, and this seems to be an opportune time for them to get the Cardinals.

 

If they were seen as just another team, then maybe they are more dangerous as they might be overlooked, but I don't know if this team has the experience and talent to survive as the hunted.

 

 

9. Tates Creek:

 

Don't write off the Commodores just yet. They are a solid team who has a ton of seniors that will be looking to defend their home court and extend their careers.

 

In last week's 21 point loss to Bryan Station, the Dores led by 2 after 1 quarter, trailed by 4 at the half, and 9 after 3 before it was blown wide open in the 4th. They'd also had respectable consecutive 13 point losses at LCA and Dunbar that preceded that. They also beat Ryle by 9 on 2/14 this past week.

 

The Dores will finish the year by hosting Western Hills on 2/18, so they'll have plenty of time to put in some different things that they feel they need to do to overcome Lafayette.

 

 

10. Woodford County:

 

Huge win over West Jessamine last week was followed up with a tough loss to Mercer County this week. Hundley is capable and his kids have been there before, which gives them an edge over the teams below them. I'm still expecting this team to come out of their district, though it's not going to be a walk in the park.

 

 

11. Sayre:

 

Sneaky good. 6'7 forward Quinn Pergande is an inside/outside threat that would start or play lots of minutes for most in the 11th. Sophomore Jake Duby, who transferred from Lafayette, is a decent scorer. Robbie Goodman is a coach's son who can hit open shots. Sr. Alexander Webb, Jr. Jack Henderson, Sr. Spencer Sabharwal, So. Will Newton, and So. Kaden Silverburg will also be counted on.

 

The Spartan's biggest win was a 6 point victory over Frankfort in the All A Classic. They followed that up with a 14 point loss to LCA.

 

Sayre is a young team despite having a senior like Pergande as their centerpiece. They'll look to send him out with a huge upset that catapults them into the regional tournament and builds momentum for their future.

 

 

 

12. Frankfort:

 

They have the athleticism to be capable of pulling an upset, and won't be a gimme for anyone, but have been on a slide as of late as well. They have beaten Woodford County, and took Lafayette to overtime in early January.

 

Wing Jalen Washington is a U of L football commit at the WR position, and he, junior guard Malik Frank, and forward Anthony Robinson are all nice running mates. Robinson, Washington, and Frank are all averaging close to double figures. Robinson is great on the boards, as is Washington. Seniors Travis Skelton, Rontez Mitchell, and Jeff Quire, as well as junior Matthew Smith will round out the lineup.

 

Because of their athleticism, Frankfort is capable of playing with most of the teams in the top 8 or 9 in a way that those in the next tier just aren't. However, Frankfort's bugaboo has been teams who play zone well, as they aren't seen as an especially threatening team in terms of perimeter shooting.

 

Fortunately for the Panthers, many of the Lexington area teams that they may face aren't traditional zone teams either, so there's a chance that they don't change that up just for Frankfort or that they aren't as used to playing it and thus aren't as effective in it against them.

 

However you slice it, the Panthers have been absolutely blown out by Lex Cath earlier in the season, beaten 6-21 Franklin County twice by a total of 8 combined points, suffered two losses to Sayre, and were the victims of a 74-58 beatdown by Woodford County.

 

Like most of the teams around them, it's going to take one of their best efforts just to be in the game late, though anything is possible.

 

 

13. Madison Southern:

 

Have also beaten Woodford County, and blew out Model early. Capable of hanging in there for awhile with some teams, but probably doesn't have the fire power to beat one of the top 8 in anything other than what would be considered a huge upset. Madison Central beat them 69-41 in the first game of the season and played a lot of kids in doing so.

 

 

14. Model:

 

Have also beaten Woodford County, but took a tough loss to Madison Southern earlier in the year. They are probably more competitive than some might think, but they've also understandably played a soft schedule and will be a pretty big underdog who might put a scare in someone in the top 9 for a half before the wheels come off late.

 

 

 

Upcoming Games:

 

 

Monday, Feb. 16:

 

Boyle Co. @ Lexington Christian Academy

 

 

Tuesday, Feb. 17:

 

Henry Clay @ Lafayette

Lexington Catholic @ Lincoln Co.

Eastern @ Scott Co.

West Jessamine @ Dunbar

 

 

Thursday, Feb. 19:

 

Henry Clay @ George Rogers Clark

Lexington Christian Academy @ Bryan Station

 

 

Friday, Feb. 20:

 

Dunbar @ Scott Co.

Boyle Co. @ Lafayette

Wayne Co. @ Lexington Catholic

Covington Catholic @ Madison Central

 

Have you seen all of the teams in the 11th play?

[JokersWild24]

Have you seen all of the teams in the 11th play?

 

If it's online, then there's a very, very good chance that I've seen a good part of the game for at least as long as it was competitive or until I feel I've seen enough. Lots of what that actually entails is according to how busy I am with other things outside of BGP.

 

When I watch, usually try to notice everything (i.e., who might be a good player next year, etc.). I put the same approach into watching a game that I did taking notes in class through law school or getting a Green Belt in Lean Six Sigma, and I mean that honestly, as in I try to quantify, organize, etc., so it's not as if I'm sitting through the game talking to a friend, texting, and scarfing down nachos. However, I will admit I'm a bit of a nerd. And I do love nachos and will probably eat a tray or two of those if I was actually there.

 

By the end of the year, what I take in will amount to around a few games a piece for each of the teams that will be in competition for the regional title, as well as some other random ones. A lot of that boils down to what's available, but typically, the better you are, the more available your games will be. I know that seeing the 3rd, 4th, and 5th most of those teams somewhere between 3-5 times each year doesn't sound like a ton, but you have to also keep in mind that those 3-5 are broadcast for a reason and are typically some of the team's better games. You see Team A play B, A play C, A play D, B play C, B play D, and C play D, then you've seen how all four matchup against one another in a roundabout way. For most high school teams, you'll get a pretty good sense of what they are about on those, their reputation, and what you've gathered in the past.

 

Since I started going to school in Texas it's been much, much more about networking, and I'm thankful that there've been people I can rely on. I generally send out some surveys at the start of the year to people familiar with some of the programs. Through the year, I try to talk to lots of people whose opinions on the game I really respect. I check stats and box scores religiously, and can tell you when a local news source, the team's Twitter page, and a third party site all come up with a different point total for the losing team's 4th leading scorer, and would rather take the word of someone I trust and can send an email, text, or PM to over any of those.

 

When I'm back home, I'll go to the games in person, but that usually isn't more than a handful and some State tournament games each year. Do get lots of reports from some of the weirdest places (i.e., friend from college who now works at one of the schools, friend of a friend whose little brother is on the freshman team, etc.). Out of all of those, reading BGP and interacting here is as just as effective of a method as any too.

 

In short, I probably watch many more of the games than people realize, and would even venture a guess as to saying that it certainly winds up being more than what an average fan sees because that's what I have to do to make it work. Not saying that it's a better alternative than going to a gym, smelling the popcorn, and being able to see things that a camera might not pick up, but I try to do the best with what's available to me.

[JokersWild24]

1. Bryan Station

2. LCA

3. Lexington Catholic

4. Dunbar/Lafayette

6. Henry Clay

7. Scott County

8. Madison Central

9. Tates Creek

10. Woodford County

11. Model

12. Sayre

13. Frankfort

14. Franklin County

15. Madison Southern

16. Berea

17. Western Hills

 

These are always the litmus for me to see how close I am each week.

 

I went back and forth on putting Lafayette so high, but ended up applying the "what have you done for me lately" test and those two wins over Station and one over Trinity ended up being the difference, but I can definitely see the justification for slotting them anywhere in the top 5 too.

 

Had LCA or Lexington Catholic not lost, they'd have been a much more firm #1.

 

This is really the closest I can ever remember the 11th being (though I only really started following closely around 1998). Nothing would really surprise me and the draw will likely be a huge influence in whoever winds up coming out's run.

[mooremiller31]

These are always the litmus for me to see how close I am each week.

 

I went back and forth on putting Lafayette so high, but ended up applying the "what have you done for me lately" test and those two wins over Station and one over Trinity ended up being the difference, but I can definitely see the justification for slotting them anywhere in the top 5 too.

 

Had LCA or Lexington Catholic not lost, they'd have been a much more firm #1.

 

This is really the closest I can ever remember the 11th being (though I only really started following closely around 1998). Nothing would really surprise me and the draw will likely be a huge influence in whoever winds up coming out's run.

 

You can put the top 5 in a hat and draw them out and be as accurate as anything anyone is gonna post. It's really anyone's region this season. Sadly some good teams won't make the region.

 

Dunbar vs. Lexington Catholic

Henry Clay vs. Scott County

 

Both of those games will be battles.

 

Another under the radar, but all out war of a game, will be Frankfort High vs. Franklin County in the 1st round of the 41st district.

[mooremiller31]

I just want to mention what Coach Daniel Brown, his staff, and team did Thursday night at senior night. Here is a link to the story. Please check it out. This is what high school basketball and coaching is all about. Much props to the boys at Henry Clay.

 

LEX 18 Sports At 11 - February 12, 2015 - LEX18.com | Continuous News and StormTracker Weather

[JokersWild24]

I just want to mention what Coach Daniel Brown, his staff, and team did Thursday night at senior night. Here is a link to the story. Please check it out. This is what high school basketball and coaching is all about. Much props to the boys at Henry Clay.

 

LEX 18 Sports At 11 - February 12, 2015 - LEX18.com | Continuous News and StormTracker Weather

 

Very awesome gesture by Coach Brown and the folks at Henry Clay. I'm sure it's something that will be treasured by Wake and his family, and was touching to see.

[sparksfor3]

The 43rd district finals will also be the region finals in my opinion.

[Bluechipper14]

Wow this is a hot region doing big things.

[The Messenger]

JokersWild,

Awesome job as always!!! I don't get a chance to see Region 11 game but feel like I know the Region well because of your reports!

 

I love the 11th Region and the excitement around this Region. Your reports help me stay up-to-date! Thanks!!

[JokersWild24]

JokersWild,

Awesome job as always!!! I don't get a chance to see Region 11 game but feel like I know the Region well because of your reports!

 

I love the 11th Region and the excitement around this Region. Your reports help me stay up-to-date! Thanks!!

 

Thanks, much appreciated.

[JokersWild24]

An interesting point that I wanted to add that people unfamiliar with the region may not be aware of.

 

The cancelled games this week could have a big effect on what goes down in District and Regional play.

 

It is the policy of the Lexington-Fayette Publics that there is no practice on days when school is cancelled. For Lexington Catholic and Lexington Christian Academy, this obviously doesn't apply. If you are Dunbar, Lafayette, or Tates Creek, however, it does.

 

In the 42nd, I'm not sure what the policy is in Scott County, but I haven't heard that there is a similar one. That means the Cardinals could also be practicing while Henry Clay is home. Same for Sayre against Bryan Station.

 

While I understand the Fayette County School's rationale behind the policy, you can't help but think it hamstrings them and puts them at a bit of a disadvantage. If you see some sloppy play early in the district from the LFCPS teams, that could be a reason.

[gamebreaker]

An interesting point that I wanted to add that people unfamiliar with the region may not be aware of.

 

The cancelled games this week could have a big effect on what goes down in District and Regional play.

 

It is the policy of the Lexington-Fayette Publics that there is no practice on days when school is cancelled. For Lexington Catholic and Lexington Christian Academy, this obviously doesn't apply. If you are Dunbar, Lafayette, or Tates Creek, however, it does.

 

In the 42nd, I'm not sure what the policy is in Scott County, but I haven't heard that there is a similar one. That means the Cardinals could also be practicing while Henry Clay is home. Same for Sayre against Bryan Station.

 

While I understand the Fayette County School's rationale behind the policy, you can't help but think it hamstrings them and puts them at a bit of a disadvantage. If you see some sloppy play early in the district from the LFCPS teams, that could be a reason.

If Lexington is shut down I'm pretty sure Georgetown is too...maybe...