October 3, 201214 yr Watching MLB Network tonight as they declare R.A. Dickey and Clayton Kershaw as the two top candidates for the NL's Cy Young Award. My question ... why not Johnny Cueto? Their raw numbers are very comparable, as are those of Gio Gonzalez, also mentioned as a candidate on MLB: Cueto ... 19-9, 2.78 ... 217 IP, 205 H, 49 BB, 170 SO, 1.171 WHIP Dickey ... 20-6, 2.69 ... 227 IP, 185 H, 54 BB, 222 SO, 1.050 WHIP Kershaw ... 13-9, 2.58 ... 220 IP, 167 H, 60 BB, 221 SO, 1.033 WHIP Gonzalez ... 21-8, 2.89 ... 199 IP, 149 H, 76 BB, 207 SO, 1.129 WHIP Cueto doesn't have the most impressive raw numbers of the group, although they are essentially close. The biggest difference is that Cueto pitches in what is easily the best hitters' home park of the four pitchers mentioned. Now, their road numbers: Cueto ... 9-6, 2.77 ... 123 IP, 119 H, 35 BB, 90 SO, 1.249 WHIP Dickey ... 10-3, 2.81 ... 102 IP, 91 H, 24 BB, 106 SO, 1.120 WHIP Kershaw ... 5-4, 3.24 ... 91 IP, 69 H, 25 BB, 93 SO, 1.025 WHIP Gonzalez ... 12-4, 3.31 ... 108 IP, 82 H, 52 BB, 115 SO, 1.233 WHIP Cueto's numbers are certainly comparable, at least. Note that Dickey and Kershaw have pitched the majority of their innings at home, where their numbers are better with the aid of their ballparks. Actually, Cueto's numbers are a bit better at home, too ... certainly not aided by GABP, however. I know Dickey is a great story and has the New York media pushing him incessantly, but for my money, Cueto deserves the award. He's been just as consistent and just as good as everyone else while pitching in a generally tougher environment.
October 3, 201214 yr It's Dickey or Gonzalez IMO. Kershaw being mentioned over Cueto is an embarrassment to those on the MLB broadcast.
October 3, 201214 yr I can't figure it out either, has to be the 30 or so k's he's behind the other guys on.
October 3, 201214 yr You pretty much nailed it westsider. Dickey's story is a feel good story, and he has the NY media, and Kershaw has the LA media. It would take a miracle for Cueto to win the award.
October 3, 201214 yr If your into these kind of stats one of the best for Cueto is EAR+ which factors in the ballpark(s). (The higher the better) Cueto - 151 Best in NL second to only Verlander Kershaw - 147 Dickey - 139 Gonzalez - 137
October 3, 201214 yr ESPN mentioned 5 this morning. Dickey, Cueto, Kershaw, Gonzalez, and the Atlanta closer with the 1.02 ERA.
October 3, 201214 yr Only 15 past Cy Young award winners have came from teams with losing records and the Mets were way below .500 and 24 games back. The Dodgers were above .500 but failed to make the playoffs while the Reds have won their division and have an opportunity to have the best record in the league. Shouldn't this help Cueto more as well?
October 3, 201214 yr Only 15 past Cy Young award winners have came from teams with losing records and the Mets were way below .500 and 24 games back. The Dodgers were above .500 but failed to make the playoffs while the Reds have won their division and have an opportunity to have the best record in the league. Shouldn't this help Cueto more as well? I guess maybe in some people's minds, it might be easier for a pitcher to have a better season, if he's playing on a better team. If you post 20 wins, and the entire team only wins 70...then you overcame a lot more than someone who's team was able to win 95 games. I don't know if I'd necessarily go 100% with that logic, but I can see where it might sway a voter.
October 3, 201214 yr Only 15 past Cy Young award winners have came from teams with losing records and the Mets were way below .500 and 24 games back. The Dodgers were above .500 but failed to make the playoffs while the Reds have won their division and have an opportunity to have the best record in the league. Shouldn't this help Cueto more as well? The Cy Young is different than the MVP. Generally the MVP comes from a playoff team or at least a winning team. It isn't that way as much now with the Cy Young. The main reason that more Cy Young winners don't come from teams with losing records is simply because that usually affects the pitchers win totals. In recent years voters have been more likely to take the pitcher's overall performance into account instead of just the win total. That is why 2 of the last 3 winners in the AL have come from teams with losing records.
October 3, 201214 yr Cueto has certainly had a great season. I wouldn't argue against it if he won but his numbers across the board are just a little bit behind Dickey and except for wins, even Kershaw.
October 3, 201214 yr Cueto has certainly had a great season. I wouldn't argue against it if he won but his numbers across the board are just a little bit behind Dickey and except for wins, even Kershaw. I would think you'd want to factor park factors into your analysis.
October 3, 201214 yr I am a Johnny Cueto fan, but his numbers are just not as good as those for R A Dickey. I agree its close - but there is only one Cy Young Winner. Dickey has 20 wins on a team that only won 73 games - 27% of teams wins Cueto 19/97 - 20% Dickey has 6 losses on a team that has lost 88 games - 7% of teams losses Cueto 9/64 - 14%
October 3, 201214 yr I would think you'd want to factor park factors into your analysis. Why? It is highly unlikely voters will. 9 out of 10 Cy Young winners the last 5 seasons have come from teams that pitch in pitcher friendly ballparks.
October 3, 201214 yr Lots of you are saying what I feel also. The park SHOULD factor in in close situations. If you are pitching in a hitter's park and have similar numbers to a pitcher in a pitcher's park that should count for some consideration.
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