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Is the Presidential Election already determined?

jericho

By jericho
in Kentucky / National Politics

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jericho

jericho

Posted
Posted

I really think that Obama wins 4 more years. I have many reason to think that but do you feel that the government can rig an election in this day and time?

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Randy Parker

Randy Parker

Posted
Posted

Obama wins.

 

Look at an electoral map. Obama has 201 electoral votes today. No way any of those states go red. The Republican candidate likely has 191 electoral votes pretty well locked up. You need 270.

 

Of the remaining 11 states not included in those figures I just provided (which comes from RealClearPolitics.com), all 11 states went in Obama's favor in 2008 (Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, & Iowa). Hard to see enough of them switching. Romney is the only GOPer with a chance, because he could possibly deliver that trio of upper midwest states.

Voice of Reason

Voice of Reason

Posted
Posted
This is a beautiful thread. If you just read the post to me I could have nailed the author in no more than 2 tries.

 

I believe I could have named that tune in one note, Tom (wasn't that the guys name that hosted that show).

marvel

marvel

Posted
Posted
Obama wins.

 

Look at an electoral map. Obama has 201 electoral votes today. No way any of those states go red. The Republican candidate likely has 191 electoral votes pretty well locked up. You need 270.

 

Of the remaining 11 states not included in those figures I just provided (which comes from RealClearPolitics.com), all 11 states went in Obama's favor in 2008 (Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, & Iowa). Hard to see enough of them switching. Romney is the only GOPer with a chance, because he could possibly deliver that trio of upper midwest states.

 

The real key state will be Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio in the last 50+ years. I think Ohio and Florida will go to the GOP. Mitt Romney is beating Obama in New Hampshire. I think PA will be a very, very close state.

 

Romney is the only one who can win out of the whole field.

Hatz

Hatz

Posted
Posted
The real key state will be Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio in the last 50+ years. I think Ohio and Florida will go to the GOP. Mitt Romney is beating Obama in New Hampshire. I think PA will be a very, very close state.

 

Romney is the only one who can win out of the whole field.

 

 

I agree. Add to that the fact that VA will likely go GOP and you have another reason to doubt an Obama victory. Virginia has only gone Democrat once since the 60's I believe and 2008 was the perfect storm for that. I also sense a strong GOP presence in North Carolina that wasn't there 3 years ago. That state traditionally goes Republican and I believe will do so again.

Randy Parker

Randy Parker

Posted
Posted
I agree. Add to that the fact that VA will likely go GOP and you have another reason to doubt an Obama victory. Virginia has only gone Democrat once since the 60's I believe and 2008 was the perfect storm for that. I also sense a strong GOP presence in North Carolina that wasn't there 3 years ago. That state traditionally goes Republican and I believe will do so again.

 

I am of the opinion that Virginia is getting bluer. Not sure if it'll stay in the blue column for 2012, but I'm positive it's not the conservative bastion it once was. The same is true with North Carolina. I was shocked when it went for Obama in 2008.

Randy Parker

Randy Parker

Posted
Posted
The real key state will be Ohio. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio in the last 50+ years. I think Ohio and Florida will go to the GOP. Mitt Romney is beating Obama in New Hampshire. I think PA will be a very, very close state.

 

Romney is the only one who can win out of the whole field.

 

Very much agree on the importance of Ohio.

 

Don't agree much on Pennsylvania. Republicans always claim to have a shot there, yet haven't won the state since GHWB in 1988.

Bluegrasscard

Bluegrasscard

Posted
Posted

The Weiner seat election appears to have the Democrats in panic - not for the White House - but for their own seats in 2012. If the political/community organizer functions could not win that election 2012 is looking like a blood bath for the Democratic party. So it appears the core Dems are at best distancing themselves from Obama. But they may want him to not run in 2012. They certainly will not ride his coat tails.

 

Evidence:

- No co-sponsers on the Presidents jobs bill. It was introduced into the House "at the Presidents request". Ouch.

- Harry Reid on the jobs bill - "We will get to jobs bill after we handle more important things." (paraphrased) Ouch.

- Newsweek editor on Morning Joe show says - "...Obama wasn't ready...". Ouch.

- David Axelrod says Obama faces 'Titanic struggle' in 2012.

 

And...

- Unemployment rate

- Approval rating hits new lows every week.

- Scandals - Fast and Furious, Solyndra, Lightsquared are all in early stages.

- Libya fallout - 20,000 heat seeking missiles now missing.

 

Even the seasoned and professional ballot stuffers from Chicago have to be shaking their heads at this point.

Hatz

Hatz

Posted
Posted
I am of the opinion that Virginia is getting bluer. Not sure if it'll stay in the blue column for 2012, but I'm positive it's not the conservative bastion it once was. The same is true with North Carolina. I was shocked when it went for Obama in 2008.

 

Why?

 

GOP just elected their first Governor here since Jim Gilmore's debacle. Ousted Tom Perriello after only 1 term. Virginia has always gone GOP presidentially until last time. I think that was a result of the GWB backlash and the Obama candidacy. I don't hear around here enough to make me believe that lightning will strike again. Remember this is the home of a lot of the military, Liberty University and Pat Robertson.

UKMustangFan

UKMustangFan

Posted
Posted
Obama wins.

 

Look at an electoral map. Obama has 201 electoral votes today. No way any of those states go red. The Republican candidate likely has 191 electoral votes pretty well locked up. You need 270.

 

Of the remaining 11 states not included in those figures I just provided (which comes from RealClearPolitics.com), all 11 states went in Obama's favor in 2008 (Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, & Iowa). Hard to see enough of them switching. Romney is the only GOPer with a chance, because he could possibly deliver that trio of upper midwest states.

 

I'll try to break this down as best as possible with my feelings on each state you listed.

 

Ohio - As always the major swing state. This one can go either way every election, but with the current state of the economy, especially in Ohio, if things don't improve I don't see how Obama carries it. That's +20 to the Republicans (we'll say Romney for consistency).

 

Michigan - A state that always seems to be up in the air, but seems to always inevitably go blue. With Romney as the candidate and the state of the economy, I see the Republicans having a very real shot at turning Michigan. Being cautious, I'll go ahead and say it's close, but remains blue. +17 Obama

 

Wisconsin - Solid blue state in my eyes. Stays firmly in Obama's camp. +10 Obama

 

Florida - I see no chance Obama carries Florida this election, unless something drastic changes. This is the area the Republicans can really gain a lot of ground. If Rubio is named the VP choice, no chance for Obama to carry Florida IMO. +27 Romney

 

New Hampshire - Typically, I'd say this is a solid blue state, but Romney has a huge presence in the state, and is widely popular. I think not only does Romney carry the usually blue state, but he does so with a rather healthy margin. +4 Romney

 

Pennsylvania - This is much like Michigan in that it tends to always be "up in the air", then go solidly blue. Again, with Romney and the state of the economy, I think this year is different. I think it's a hotly contested state that could swing the election. As of right now, I give an ever so slight edge to Obama, and will keep it in his camp for now. +21 Obama

 

Colorado - This is a tough one for me. Not too familiar with the current conditions and situation in the mountain state, so I'll cautiously keep it in Obama's camp for now. +9 Obama

 

Nevada - Blue last year, I think it goes blue again. Still too early to really get any kind of read though IMO. +4 Obama

 

Virginia - I see this state going back in the fold for the Republicans and it seems the red presence is getting stronger in the colonial state. Romney wins it, but not without a bit of a fight. +13 Romney

 

North Carolina - I see no chance in the world that this state goes blue again. It was a complete shocker last election to many, and I think with a rallied Republican base (which it seems there is), I see Romney taking back NC. +15 Romney

 

Iowa - This is going to be an interesting one. I think most Republican candidates win this one handily this year, but Romney is not very well received in the hawkeye state for some reason. I still think with the support of the Tea Party (which I think will come after the nomination is determined) and other Iowa favorites (Bachmann, Perry, etc.) Romney will have enough support to pull the state. +7 Romney

 

If my math is correct:

 

Obama: 201 + (Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) 63 votes = 264 votes

Romney: 191 + (Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa) 86 votes = 277 votes

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