So, does anyone think this could come down to "the devil you know is better than the one you don't" voting? Meaning that people may be even more afraid of changes that may ensue with a Republican president that they stick with the known quantity?

So, does anyone think this could come down to "the devil you know is better than the one you don't" voting? Meaning that people may be even more afraid of changes that may ensue with a Republican president that they stick with the known quantity?

 

Honestly, right now I think it's more likely going to be similar to the 2008 election. Anything is better than what we have now. The Dems capitalized on portraying McCain as another GWB, and as soon as that happened it was over for the Republicans.

 

Now a whole heck of a lot can happen between now and then, but as of right now, as long as the Republicans don't trot some whacko like Bachmann, Palin, Perry, or Santorum out there (i.e. it has to be Romney or maybe Herman Cain), I don't see how they lose.

So, does anyone think this could come down to "the devil you know is better than the one you don't" voting? Meaning that people may be even more afraid of changes that may ensue with a Republican president that they stick with the known quantity?

If forced to choose between Obama and one of the "declared" GOP candiates this would be what determines my vote so I'd stick with Obama.

Honestly, right now I think it's more likely going to be similar to the 2008 election. Anything is better than what we have now. The Dems capitalized on portraying McCain as another GWB, and as soon as that happened it was over for the Republicans.

Now a whole heck of a lot can happen between now and then, but as of right now, as long as the Republicans don't trot some whacko like Bachmann, Palin, Perry, or Santorum out there (i.e. it has to be Romney or maybe Herman Cain), I don't see how they lose.

I feel this is exactly how the Democrats thought about GWB in '04 and we know how that turned out. You can not discount how hard it is to knock off an incumbent.

Honestly, right now I think it's more likely going to be similar to the 2008 election. Anything is better than what we have now. The Dems capitalized on portraying McCain as another GWB, and as soon as that happened it was over for the Republicans.

 

Now a whole heck of a lot can happen between now and then, but as of right now, as long as the Republicans don't trot some whacko like Bachmann, Palin, Perry, or Santorum out there (i.e. it has to be Romney or maybe Herman Cain), I don't see how they lose.

 

If forced to choose between Obama and one of the "declared" GOP candiates this would be what determines my vote so I'd stick with Obama.

 

Two diametrically opposed opinions. :lol:

I'm with UKMF on this one. The way things are right now, I think this election will "go down to the wire."

 

I think the country is split to the point where the independent voters will swing most elections by a narrow margin. Obama captured the majority of those last time and it wasn't close. I don't think it is likely that either guy can do that this time around. I'm guessing this one will be more like Bush v. Gore in 2000. What was it, a margin of a few hundred votes in Florida? I don't think it will be that close, but something like that. It will come down to a state or two that will be hotly contested.

This is a beautiful thread. If you just read the post to me I could have nailed the author in no more than 2 tries.

 

In the P&R forum, I can almost always do so just with the title - don't need the entire post.

Why?

 

GOP just elected their first Governor here since Jim Gilmore's debacle. Ousted Tom Perriello after only 1 term. Virginia has always gone GOP presidentially until last time. I think that was a result of the GWB backlash and the Obama candidacy. I don't hear around here enough to make me believe that lightning will strike again. Remember this is the home of a lot of the military, Liberty University and Pat Robertson.

 

Part of it is a gut feeling. The other part is that it's in the "swing-state" category instead of the "likely GOP" category, or even the "solidly GOP" category.

Two diametrically opposed opinions. :lol:

Which is even more amusing when it's from two guys who share more opinions than not.

I'm with UKMF on this one. The way things are right now, I think this election will "go down to the wire."

 

I think the country is split to the point where the independent voters will swing most elections by a narrow margin. Obama captured the majority of those last time and it wasn't close. I don't think it is likely that either guy can do that this time around. I'm guessing this one will be more like Bush v. Gore in 2000. What was it, a margin of a few hundred votes in Florida? I don't think it will be that close, but something like that. It will come down to a state or two that will be hotly contested.

 

I think it'll be more like 2004, when Bush won nationally 51%-48%.

Which is even more amusing when it's from two guys who share more opinions than not.

 

:lol: Isn't that the truth. I don't know, maybe my view of the nations feelings on Obama is limited due to the area I'm in, but I've yet to come across anyone who has nice things to say about how he's handling the economic crisis.

I'll try to break this down as best as possible with my feelings on each state you listed.

 

Ohio - As always the major swing state. This one can go either way every election, but with the current state of the economy, especially in Ohio, if things don't improve I don't see how Obama carries it. That's +20 to the Republicans (we'll say Romney for consistency).

 

Michigan - A state that always seems to be up in the air, but seems to always inevitably go blue. With Romney as the candidate and the state of the economy, I see the Republicans having a very real shot at turning Michigan. Being cautious, I'll go ahead and say it's close, but remains blue. +17 Obama

 

Wisconsin - Solid blue state in my eyes. Stays firmly in Obama's camp. +10 Obama

 

Florida - I see no chance Obama carries Florida this election, unless something drastic changes. This is the area the Republicans can really gain a lot of ground. If Rubio is named the VP choice, no chance for Obama to carry Florida IMO. +27 Romney

 

New Hampshire - Typically, I'd say this is a solid blue state, but Romney has a huge presence in the state, and is widely popular. I think not only does Romney carry the usually blue state, but he does so with a rather healthy margin. +4 Romney

 

Pennsylvania - This is much like Michigan in that it tends to always be "up in the air", then go solidly blue. Again, with Romney and the state of the economy, I think this year is different. I think it's a hotly contested state that could swing the election. As of right now, I give an ever so slight edge to Obama, and will keep it in his camp for now. +21 Obama

 

Colorado - This is a tough one for me. Not too familiar with the current conditions and situation in the mountain state, so I'll cautiously keep it in Obama's camp for now. +9 Obama

 

Nevada - Blue last year, I think it goes blue again. Still too early to really get any kind of read though IMO. +4 Obama

 

Virginia - I see this state going back in the fold for the Republicans and it seems the red presence is getting stronger in the colonial state. Romney wins it, but not without a bit of a fight. +13 Romney

 

North Carolina - I see no chance in the world that this state goes blue again. It was a complete shocker last election to many, and I think with a rallied Republican base (which it seems there is), I see Romney taking back NC. +15 Romney

 

Iowa - This is going to be an interesting one. I think most Republican candidates win this one handily this year, but Romney is not very well received in the hawkeye state for some reason. I still think with the support of the Tea Party (which I think will come after the nomination is determined) and other Iowa favorites (Bachmann, Perry, etc.) Romney will have enough support to pull the state. +7 Romney

 

If my math is correct:

 

Obama: 201 + (Nevada, Colorado, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) 63 votes = 264 votes

Romney: 191 + (Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa) 86 votes = 277 votes

 

Very good analysis. And I would agree on every projection you made, with the exception of Virginia & North Carolina. Those two states, along with Ohio, are the key states IMO.

 

But the GOP would do themselves a service by getting here on BGP & looking at your post, because you've just outlined their most realistic path to victory.

:lol: Isn't that the truth. I don't know, maybe my view of the nations feelings on Obama is limited due to the area I'm in, but I've yet to come across anyone who has nice things to say about how he's handling the economic crisis.

To be fair, we are in a state that will firmly go for Satan if he was registered GOP.

To be fair, we are in a state that will firmly go for Satan if he was registered GOP.

 

:lol: While true as of late, Clinton won Kentucky twice, I believe.

To be fair, we are in a state that will firmly go for Satan if he was registered GOP.

 

Satan, at least, has a plan. He is a community organizer of sorts too.