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Lexington Christian Academy at Beechwood Predictions/Updates

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Beechwood vs Lexington Christian Academy  

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  1. 1. Who wins?

    • Beechwood
      71
    • Lexington Christian
      54

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Voice of Reason

Voice of Reason

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A big game rivalry renewed! The Beechwood Tigers will host the Lexington Christian Eagles in a post Thanksgiving day Class 2A state semifinal, game time 7:30 pm. It is always a well earned honor to be playing football after Thanksgiving and these two teams have accomplished that. Beechwood and LCA have been ranked 2 and 3 in 2A all year, trading places after Beechwood dropped to 3 following their loss to Covington Catholic. These teams have met 5 times since 2004, all in the playoffs. Beechwood leads the series 4-1. The only loss happened in 2005 at LCA. That 42-20 loss ended an 8-4 season. Mike Yeagle resigned as head coach that year, so it was his last game as Beechwood head coach.

Lexington Christian comes into this game on a high note, defeating the 4th ranked Mayfield Cardinals on the road in impressive fashion 47-7. It has been another impressive season for the Eagles. No one can ever accuse LCA of avoiding competition. They play one of the strongest out of district schedules in the state year in and year out. Every non-district team LCA faced was ranked high in their class, with 4 of their 6 non district teams still playing in the final four of their respective class. Their two losses came to 4A Boyle County 35-13, #2 in the state in calpreps, and 4A undefeated Franklin County, #6 in the state in calpreps. The Eagles have won 11 straight since those two opening season losses capped by last week's steamrolling of Mayfield. In calpreps, LCA is now the #1 team in 2A - yes, higher ranked than the year long #1 Owensboro Catholic.

LCA made a huge statement on their formula for success in their Mayfield win. They are going to get behind their line and run the ball at you, through you and around you. If you can't stop that, you are in for a long night. Against Mayfield, they only threw the ball 4 times. LCA will be happy if they throw the ball less than 10 times against Beechwood. Look at these rushing totals against their 6 very high quality non-district opponents - 185, 282, 255, 352, 416, 291. The only defense to hold them below 255 yards was Boyle County in the season opening game. On the season, the Eagles average 262 yards rushing. Buckle up and get ready. The Eagles are coming straight at you. They will do it from a lot of different formations. They will make it tough for a defense to read where that run is coming from. Mayfield will attest to that. But just know, they are running it first and foremost. Leading that rushing attack is their Sr. QB Saxton Howard and Sr. RB Leland Edwards. Howard is lightning fast, averaging more than 10 yards per carry with more than 750 yards rushing on the year. Edwards averaged 146 yards a game against those 6 high quality non-district opponents. On the passing side, Howard doesn't throw often but he is effective when he does. LCA averages 117 yards passing per game, which is #14 in 2A. Howard averages 96 yards passing per game but he completes 68% of his passes and has 13 TD's against 2 INT's. Effective enough to keep the defense from totally loading the box against their rushing attack. Defensively, LCA has allowed points to those tough opponents - until holding Mayfield to just one TD last week. The schedule has not been as strong the last 8 games, but no one, including Mayfield and Raceland has scored more than 2 TD's against LCA in those 8 games.

Beechwood has a much different offensive attack than LCA, but interestingly the yardage results are almost the same with both teams at over 4,500 yards of offense. While LCA produces 70% of their yardage on the ground, Beechwood is more balanced with 56% of their yardage passing the ball and 44% rushing. Sr. RB Chase Flaherty has been the star of the playoffs for Beechwood. He has 1,335 yards rushing on the year and also has 216 yards receiving on 13 catches, averaging almost 17 yards per reception. Flaherty is very shifty. He will make tacklers miss in space and has the speed to take it all the way if he gets in the open. Getting that rushing attack more productive and balancing the offense has been a year long focus for Beechwood. The challenge in that is the Beechwood passing game has been elite over the past 3 years with Sr. QB Clay Hayden at the helm. Hayden continues adding to various record breaking stats, including most TD's in school and N. Ky. history. Hayden will finish his career in the top 10 in state history in career TD passes and in career completion percent, and will finish in the top 25 in career passing yards. All that in just 2 1/2 seasons as Beechwood QB. Helping make those records happen is a fleet of extremely fast wide receivers. There cannot be a faster foursome of wide receivers in the state than Sr. James Cusick, Sr. Luke Erdman, So. Tyler Fryman and So Nathan Pabst. That is not subjective. Look at the state track meet finals last spring and you will see Erdman, Cusick and Pabst wearing their state champion medals. Defensively the Tigers have dominated the teams they were expected to beat, with 5 shutouts and 2 games allowing just 1 TD. However, in those games against the higher quality opponents, the best the defense has been able to do is hold their opponent to 20 points. The LCA offense is certainly high quality.

Looking at the matchup, the only offense LCA has faced that is as productive as Beechwood's was Boyle County. The offense that Beechwood has faced that is most similar to LCA's was Covington Catholic. Those games were losses for LCA and Beechwood. Every time Beechwood has faced LCA in the past 5 years, LCA was the clear favorite in most people's eyes. I believe that is true again in this game. Can Beechwood once again pull off an upset against a dominant looking LCA team? 

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Voice of Reason
Voice of Reason

A big game rivalry renewed! The Beechwood Tigers will host the Lexington Christian Eagles in a post Thanksgiving day Class 2A state semifinal, game time 7:30 pm. It is always a well earned honor to be

GBR
GBR

I guess I will wade into this, but it really needs its own thread. There is too much that needs to be said, but I will be brief.  First, the generation of fans that started this ride 50 or so yea

snakesnot_2000
snakesnot_2000

We give you Red Helmet video, give us Tiger Helmet video. 

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DaTruth

DaTruth

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Before I pick em...I have to see more of Beechwood who initially was my strong 2nd but now that I have seen them up close and personal how they man handle my Mayfield cardinals I am leaning towards them...

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Voice of Reason

Voice of Reason

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20 minutes ago, snakesnot_2000 said:

I say Beechwood scores more than 14 points. Will that be enough?

Beechwood has scored 28 or more against every team they have faced this year, including Covington Catholic and their other non-district opponents. Beechwood is #3 in the entire state in points scored trailing only Paducah Tilghman and Owensboro Catholic. In fact, Beechwood has scored 28 points or more in every game the past two years with Clay Hayden at QB.

There is only one game in Clay Hayden's career as Beechwood QB that Beechwood has scored less than 26 points in a game. That was his sophomore season against Mayfield in the Tigers' 14-13 state championship win.

No, 14 points is not enough. It would very impressive if this LCA defense held Beechwood to 14, and I will be impressed if Beechwood holds LCA to 14. I see this game being something like 35-28.

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Oldercoach

Oldercoach

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After CovCath gashed the Tigers with over 450+ yards rushing and another 150+ passing, I had my doubts that Beechwood’s D would ever be up to the task of stopping an athletic QB led rushing team.  After CovCath put a 350 yard pounding on the ground to Boyle Co, maybe more credit should go to CC and perhaps Tiger’s ground defense maybe not as bad as it looked.   After that being said, Tigers need good weather and a strong performance by front 7/8 to extend their journey.  Tigers 35-28.

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Voice of Reason

Voice of Reason

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1 hour ago, Oldercoach said:

After CovCath gashed the Tigers with over 450+ yards rushing and another 150+ passing, I had my doubts that Beechwood’s D would ever be up to the task of stopping an athletic QB led rushing team.  After CovCath put a 350 yard pounding on the ground to Boyle Co, maybe more credit should go to CC and perhaps Tiger’s ground defense maybe not as bad as it looked.   After that being said, Tigers need good weather and a strong performance by front 7/8 to extend their journey.  Tigers 35-28.

Good points. We will not know till Friday how these teams match up in the trenches. That is where the game will be decided and where LCA has an advantage, based on 4 of their linemen holding scholarship offers versus 2 of Beechwood's linemen holding offers.

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