Owensboro at Bowling Green Predictions/Updates

[Purple88]

2023 - 5A STATE SEMIFINAL

Owensboro (9-4) at Bowling Green (10-3)

It will be 2 rounds between these old foes in 2023!

This will be the 84^th meeting between these old rivals.  For BG, Owensboro is its most played opponent all time with BG leading the razor thin all-time series 42-39-2.  These teams have produced some classic games over the years with most going BG’s way in the 2000’s and most going Owensboro’s way in the late 50’s and 60’s. 

The Purples getting to this Round isn’t really a surprise, but them Hosting this round is.  When the regular season ended, most Purples fans envisioned a road game on Black Friday.  Well Christmas came early on Rockingham Lane with the Owensboro Red Devils wrapping up a Big Black-bowed package and they certainly delivered it in Round 2 vs South Warren (53-22), who had RPI advantages on every 5A team, except Highlands.

The Red Devils getting past Round 2 was a surprise for most everyone not sitting on the Home Side of Rash Stadium when South Warren came calling (for the first time ever I might add).  But Owensboro was ready to play (as they always are at home) and delivered IMO the biggest upset of the playoffs thus far in any Class. 

These two met in the Heat Bowl this season on August 25th in the second game of the year at Rash Stadium during a week where the entire Commonwealth saw temperatures into the 100’s all week.  Most games were pushed back an hour to start in order to get the heat indices down enough to play.  The Purples outlasted (literally) Owensboro 42-28.  Deuce Bailey had a huge game in that one with over 300 yards and 5 TDs.  My man @Devils Fan predicted all the way back in August that this rematch would happen, well done!  Going to be a good one anytime these 2 hook up!  Now on to our game!

Owensboro Information

After getting kicked to the 5A curb after a difficult/mostly unexpected district loss at Madisonville (45-38), the Red Devils have been playing their best football of the year.  They got back to Rash Stadium and defeated a decent Henderson County team, poor ole Ohio County and then took the starch out of the Spartans of South Warren.  In that South Warren game, they gained over 300 yards on the ground against one of the best run defenses you will find.  Impressive.

They had to keep their wits when they traveled last Friday to a gritty Atherton squad who had their best team in program history.  Atherton had some very good players, but the Red Devils were easily the most complete team the Ravens had faced all season and when Owensboro’s defense held on the first offensive series and O gained the lead, I knew it would be a tough night for the Homestanding Ravens (especially with some early fumbles/strip sack).  Owensboro had some turnovers as well, but O playing probably their best football of the year right now.  RB Evan Hampton had another big night with a couple TDs.  The Red Devils enter their 5^th straight State Semi-Finals game (2019 – 2023).  Very Impressive!

Bowling Green Information

In the past 20 years (since 2003), Bowling Green has reached the Regional Final Round every year but 5 (2004- Madisonville; 2008 – Owensboro; 2010 – Christian County; 2018 – Owensboro; and 2021 – South Warren).  They have reached the Semi-Final Round in that same time frame every year but 7, where you add the two stinging losses to Graves County (2014) and South Warren (2017).  Pretty good. 

The Purples come into this Black Friday game arguably playing as well as they have played all season.  Last Friday they played an overmatched Fairdale squad who gained I’m assuming less than 100 yards offense (not counting the 2 long TD runs Fairdale had after halftime against the JV team).  The offense is clicking as it has most of the year, but the difference to me is the continued improvement of the BG defense.  The defensive coaches have done a great job tinkering with the lineup and I think they are settled on it now and the players are dialed in and it shows with how well they have played the last few weeks since the St X game.  Is that beating weaker teams or improving?  We’ll find out Friday night as the Red Devils have clearly improved since that August 25^th game. 

Game Information

This game will be played at Bowling Green High School Football Field (turf field).  Game time has not been set yet.  The current weather forecast for Black Friday in Bowling Green is currently sunny – High of 57 and projected game time kickoff at a crisp 47 degrees with no wind.  No excuses with that forecast.

BG needs a good week of practice; some good turkey on Thanksgiving and come out ready to roll against an increasingly good Owensboro team who is firing on all cylinders right now.  This is a special week that only a handful of teams get to experience!  Congratulations to both teams for earning this opportunity!

Really, really looking forward to it!  Who you got and why!

[Devils Fan]

Well for starters if Owensboro has 4 turnovers like they did against Atherton it will be a long night in BG. They will need to be a little more focused and take care of the ball. 

The Devils have made quite a few adjustments/improvements since the last time these 2 teams met. I’m sure the Purples have too. If O can win the turnover battle and jump to quick lead I like our chances. On offense when in doubt find Hampton LBS kids electric and can wear a team down. He needs way more touches than the last time these 2 teams met. Also Delacey has improved as a QB since. He’s still good for a mental lapse or 2 per game but throws a good deep ball about as good as anybody around when he is on. This offense could create some trouble for the Purples. I just don’t know if our defense will be able to get enough stops. The fan in me believes they can. Either way this should be a great game. 

 Give me them Devils to return the favor in the playoffs.

Devils 42 Purples 36

[Killowatt59]

If this game was at Rash I would lean Owensboro.

 

But BG is at home. They are playing well.  If it’s high scoring that definitely favors the Purples.  If it’s lower scoring that favors Owensboro.

its going to be a battle and I expect the EL to be packed!

It’s tough to beat a good team twice in the same season, but I’ll take the Purples

38-31.

[DragonFire]

Bowling Green has won 33 of their last 35 playoff games at home, and hasn’t lost one there since the shocking region final loss to South Warren in 2017. It is very hard to pick against the Purples at home in the postseason. 

[VF111]

1 hour ago, Killowatt59 said:

If this game was at Rash I would lean Owensboro.

Out of curiosity, why?

BG won pretty convincingly over Owensboro at Rash and has only gotten better on D since that game. Outside of the X game, BG has clicked along on O all season. What we make you favor the Red Devils at Rash? 

[Devils Fan]

What adjustments have BG made that’s made their defense better? 

[Brown]

Good points from everyone.   I went back to the first game.  O gave up 2 TD’s where our defender was lost. BG QB was unstoppable and did what he wanted.  O hit the gas late but was down too much to make it a game.  I’m sure BG has continued to grow.  To me they are one of 2 favorites to win it all with the bluebirds. The Owensboro defense has been horrid until the Hendo game.  Since then they have been much better, but defending the purples at the El is a tall task.  Delacey had 3 Interceptions the first game.  If that happens again, it will be a blowout win for BG.  

‘Owensboro with Winstead and Ashley on defense is a huge upgrade.  The first game between BG and O, Hampton was a WR and only had 4 carries.  Now he the dominant back.  He helped to torch South Warren.

I think this game will be a battle.  If one team wins the TO battle by plus 2, they will win.  BG has to be the favorite.  Calpreps has this as the #3 and #4 teams in 5A and BG winning 38-31.  Either was this turns, tremendous year for O in rebuilding mode.  Delacey has been a heck of an athlete stepping in at QB.  Great job by Coach Fallin and staff.

Think on this:  of 3 teams O lost to they are all still playing and may be state champs:  BG, CAL, Ocath.  Also throw in 2 teams it scrimmaged in Mayfield and Boyle.  
 

Go devils!

[Brown]

As always - great write up @Purple88!

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

These are two teams that I basically always root for (so long as they aren't facing Cov Cath). From what I've seen, Owensboro has really found their stride in the last 4 or 5 weeks. I know comparing shared opponents isn't science when it comes to football, but there are a couple of shared opponents between these two, and I think the results of those games do look to make this rematch interesting:

Apollo
Sep 8 - Bowling Green 57 Apollo 7
Sep 22 - Owensboro 61 Apollo 21
Nov 3 - Bowling Green 48 Apollo 6

South Warren
Oct 13 - Bowling Green 36 South Warren 29
Nov 10 - Owensboro 53 South Warren 22

It would appear that Owensboro's offense has made some notable improvements since the Purples beat the Red Devils 42-28 back in late August. @Devils Fan asked a very poignant question his last post when he asked what adjustments Bowling Green has made to improve their defense - my guess is that the results of this game are going to hinge on how the Purples defense does against the Red Devil offense that has become a much more battle-toughened unit over the course of the season.

[Brown]

I’ll add Barber is phenomenal for the purples.  

[Devils Fan]

35 minutes ago, Brown said:

I’ll add Barber is phenomenal for the purples.  

My biggest worry outside of Bailey. We can’t let him get started. Kid is dangerous every time he touches the ball and may be the fastest kid on the field Friday night.

[PurpleTim]

Black Friday football is hard to beat.
 

Throw in 2 teams that has played each other 84 times that respects one another’s program but wants their longtime rival to lose by 50 every week makes for a great atmosphere. 
 

Here’s what we know…

Both teams better be on their “A” game

Both teams needs to win turnover battle

 

Heres what we need to remember…

Big Players make Big Plays. Whichever team has the ALPHA player on field that noticeably stands out Friday night will, IMO, win the game. 
 

Give me Deuce and the Purples for the win. 
 

Purples 41

Red Devils 21

[Devils Fan]

41 minutes ago, Colonels_Wear_Blue said:

These are two teams that I basically always root for (so long as they aren't facing Cov Cath). From what I've seen, Owensboro has really found their stride in the last 4 or 5 weeks. I know comparing shared opponents isn't science when it comes to football, but there are a couple of shared opponents between these two, and I think the results of those games do look to make this rematch interesting:

Apollo
Sep 8 - Bowling Green 57 Apollo 7
Sep 22 - Owensboro 61 Apollo 21
Nov 3 - Bowling Green 48 Apollo 6

South Warren
Oct 13 - Bowling Green 36 South Warren 29
Nov 10 - Owensboro 53 South Warren 22

It would appear that Owensboro's offense has made some notable improvements since the Purples beat the Red Devils 42-28 back in late August. @Devils Fan asked a very poignant question his last post when he asked what adjustments Bowling Green has made to improve their defense - my guess is that the results of this game are going to hinge on how the Purples defense does against the Red Devil offense that has become a much more battle-toughened unit over the course of the season.

I can see how my question might have came off kind of condescending by how direct it was. Not my intentions at all just a real legit question I have. Did they move some players around or is it just that they are learning to play together and playing harder?… 

[Devils Fan]

Is BG more overall talented than O?

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

17 minutes ago, Devils Fan said:

I can see how my question might have came off kind of condescending by how direct it was. Not my intentions at all just a real legit question I have. Did they move some players around or is it just that they are learning to play together and playing harder?… 

I didn't read it as condescending. And I think the answer to your question (whatever it may be) will probably be one of the best indicators to the outcome of the game, frankly.