7 hours ago, sportsdad316 said:

Still looks like a pretty sizable gap with 1 week left. Any chance 1-4 changes?

I think if North Hardin beats Catholic it will change some. Who really knows at this point?

8 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

It will be very difficult to predict possibilities because what the opponents and the opponents opponents do next Friday are going to have impact.

O Cath should gain good points if they beat 6A North Hardin, so the only hope anyone has of catching them is if they lose.

Same thing with Mayfield gaining points because they are also playing a 6A school, Christian County. Despite the bad record, beating a 6A school produces really good points in KHSAA RPI. I don't see anyone catching Mayfield or O Cath.

Beechwood could get passed by LCA but it is close enough that the opponents results will likely be the difference. Beechwood has their open week. I am not sure how Raceland will impact LCA. That game may get thrown out of LCA's ranking because of Raceland being a 1A school and the new rule that allows a team to drop 2 game factors versus a lower class school. Under KHSAA RPI, it actually could hurt playing a lower class school because the game factor is lower for schools in lower classes.

If Green County is able to upset 4A Taylor County, that may be enough to jump them up over LCA. This is the game we need to try and figure out the impact of as I think it could have the most impact on changing the RPI rankings.

 

If Green County happens to jump LCA then OCath will essentially be penalized for having the #1 spot as they will have to play LCA in the third round, given Green County makes the third round. With that being said, for someone other than LCA to win the championship you will have to beat them at some point, so what better place to do it than on your home turf. 

1 hour ago, Astro Domino said:

If Green County happens to jump LCA then OCath will essentially be penalized for having the #1 spot as they will have to play LCA in the third round, given Green County makes the third round. With that being said, for someone other than LCA to win the championship you will have to beat them at some point, so what better place to do it than on your home turf. 

No way Green County will pass LCA. 

8 minutes ago, TimeWillTell said:

No way Green County will pass LCA. 

I really don’t think so either but I honestly don’t know. They are playing a decent 4A team to close out their schedule but probably won’t be enough.

So if it stands next week, and no upsets in the first two rounds, mayfield will get LCA in Mayfield, and OC will get possibly Green in Owensboro?   Can green beat OC?  They do have a pretty good running game. 

2 hours ago, Astro Domino said:

If Green County happens to jump LCA then OCath will essentially be penalized for having the #1 spot as they will have to play LCA in the third round, given Green County makes the third round. With that being said, for someone other than LCA to win the championship you will have to beat them at some point, so what better place to do it than on your home turf. 

If that is the case who would Mayfield play in round 3? 

38 minutes ago, sportsdad316 said:

So if it stands next week, and no upsets in the first two rounds, mayfield will get LCA in Mayfield, and OC will get possibly Green in Owensboro?   Can green beat OC?  They do have a pretty good running game. 

Correct. And I don’t see Green County being able to hang anywhere near OCath.

14 minutes ago, Jason Bucklen said:

If that is the case who would Mayfield play in round 3? 

Green County.

I mean no disrespect toward Mayfield, but I’d rather play them than Catholic. That doesn’t mean Mayfield isn’t just as good Catholic, I just feel the Dragons match up better with Mayfield than Catholic. 
 

With that said, the Dragons will have a rough go with either of those teams, and would be major underdogs to both. Not an easy matchup for the Dragons any way they go in round three. 

3 minutes ago, GC-Dragons said:

I mean no disrespect toward Mayfield, but I’d rather play them than Catholic. That doesn’t mean Mayfield isn’t just as good Catholic, I just feel the Dragons match up better with Mayfield than Catholic. 
 

With that said, the Dragons will have a rough go with either of those teams, and would be major underdogs to both. Not an easy matchup for the Dragons any way they go in round three. 

Ehhh I’m not so sure. I’d rather play anyone in 2A 3rd round than face that offense. The defense doesn’t worry me as much I believe we will be able to score. The offense is scary though. Last year I thought we did a great job containing him his weapons were solid but not great. Obviously we all know what they added no need to get into that . We just won’t be able to focus on the air attack so much like we did last year and I’m afraid it will hurt us. BUT we will be home and I’ll always take my Cardinals at home in November. 

2 hours ago, GC-Dragons said:

I mean no disrespect toward Mayfield, but I’d rather play them than Catholic. That doesn’t mean Mayfield isn’t just as good Catholic, I just feel the Dragons match up better with Mayfield than Catholic. 
 

With that said, the Dragons will have a rough go with either of those teams, and would be major underdogs to both. Not an easy matchup for the Dragons any way they go in round three. 

In that case I hope you get your wish. Mayfield is a top ten team in the whole state as far as pure athleticism is concerned. I would definitely rather take my chances with OCath but that’s just me. I think Mayfield would beat OC by 2 TDS.

Just ran the calculations.

Green County cannot overtake LCA.

LCA might catch Beechwood but it will depend on the OOWP (Opponents Opponents' Winning Percentage). Even if LCA beats Raceland, they don't gain enough points in WP and OWP to move past Beechwood. If we leave OOWP as is, then with a win over Raceland the LCA RPI will be .75722. Beechwood's RPI is .76035. I don't think LCA can gain the additional .00314 needed from OOWP to move past Beechwood. This late in the season the numbers don't move that much. 

If I am right, then the current KHSAA RPI rankings of the top 5 will be the rankings at the end of the season next Friday. Assuming the top seeds win through the playoffs, that sends LCA to Mayfield in round 3. If Mayfield wins that one, Beechwood will travel to Mayfield in the semi finals. If LCA wins that game, LCA will travel to Beechwood in the semi finals. 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Just ran the calculations.

Green County cannot overtake LCA.

LCA might catch Beechwood but it will depend on the OOWP (Opponents Opponents' Winning Percentage). Even if LCA beats Raceland, they don't gain enough points in WP and OWP to move past Beechwood. If we leave OOWP as is, then with a win over Raceland the LCA RPI will be .75722. Beechwood's RPI is .76035. I don't think LCA can gain the additional .00314 needed from OOWP to move past Beechwood. This late in the season the numbers don't move that much. 

If I am right, then the current KHSAA RPI rankings of the top 5 will be the rankings at the end of the season next Friday. Assuming the top seeds win through the playoffs, that sends LCA to Mayfield in round 3. If Mayfield wins that one, Beechwood will travel to Mayfield in the semi finals. If LCA wins that game, LCA will travel to Beechwood in the semi finals. 

 

 

I’m glad somebody can figure it out haha.

5 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Just ran the calculations.

Green County cannot overtake LCA.

LCA might catch Beechwood but it will depend on the OOWP (Opponents Opponents' Winning Percentage). Even if LCA beats Raceland, they don't gain enough points in WP and OWP to move past Beechwood. If we leave OOWP as is, then with a win over Raceland the LCA RPI will be .75722. Beechwood's RPI is .76035. I don't think LCA can gain the additional .00314 needed from OOWP to move past Beechwood. This late in the season the numbers don't move that much. 

If I am right, then the current KHSAA RPI rankings of the top 5 will be the rankings at the end of the season next Friday. Assuming the top seeds win through the playoffs, that sends LCA to Mayfield in round 3. If Mayfield wins that one, Beechwood will travel to Mayfield in the semi finals. If LCA wins that game, LCA will travel to Beechwood in the semi finals. 

 

 

Wow! Basically if everyone wins out this Friday it stays the same. If Catholic loses to North Hardin it can change a lot. 

6 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Just ran the calculations.

Green County cannot overtake LCA.

LCA might catch Beechwood but it will depend on the OOWP (Opponents Opponents' Winning Percentage). Even if LCA beats Raceland, they don't gain enough points in WP and OWP to move past Beechwood. If we leave OOWP as is, then with a win over Raceland the LCA RPI will be .75722. Beechwood's RPI is .76035. I don't think LCA can gain the additional .00314 needed from OOWP to move past Beechwood. This late in the season the numbers don't move that much. 

If I am right, then the current KHSAA RPI rankings of the top 5 will be the rankings at the end of the season next Friday. Assuming the top seeds win through the playoffs, that sends LCA to Mayfield in round 3. If Mayfield wins that one, Beechwood will travel to Mayfield in the semi finals. If LCA wins that game, LCA will travel to Beechwood in the semi finals. 

 

 

Do you have a spreadsheet? If so can you send it my way or run some calculations for me? Lol