I love how BW fans stay humble and stay out of these conversations as many on this string give them no chance.  Win or lose only time will tell.

5 hours ago, sportsdad316 said:

An east team will not see the west til the semifinals.

So you are confirming that I am right? 

For those wondering about Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield and what ifs, here is a primer on calculating some of RPI:

Let's look at the impact of Owensboro losing to North Hardin. Here is the link to Owensboro Catholic's RPI https://khsaa.org/rpi_details/?team_id=89880. If O Cath loses to North Hardin, they get a zero game value. A loss in RPI = 0. So take O Cath's WP 1.33998, multiplied by 9 (9 games currently played) to get a total of 12.0592. If they lose to North Hardin they get 0 so their total stays at 12.0592 (some variance will happen after Friday's results but we will leave it at 12.0592). Now divide by 10 to get 10 games played and O Cath's WP is 1.205982. Now you have to multiply that by .35 because WP equals 35% of RPI. That makes the number 0.42209. Multiply the current WP 1.33998 x 35% and you get 0.46899. Subtract 0.42209 and O Cath's RPI drops by 0.046903. Currently O Cath leads Mayfield by .03552. So yes, if O Cath loses to North Hardin, Mayfield looks like they could pass O Cath if Mayfield wins their game. Of course, we aren't factoring in the other 65% of the formula but the big numbers happen in the won loss column. 

If you want to look at OWP, we can pretty much calculate that now. O Cath has an OWP of .50854 x 9 = 4.57686. North Hardin's WP is .12500 added to 4.57686 = 4.70186 divided by 10 = .470186 x 35% of RPI =.1645651. Current OWP is .50854 x 35% = .177989. So we know for sure O Cath's OWP is dropping about .0134 Friday night. Mayfield's OWP will also drop because Christian County has a WP of .17464. Mayfield will gain a little here but not nearly enough to pass O Cath. 

The last 30% of RPI is OOWP and way too many variables to try and do a "simple" estimate of that number.

Bottom line, I don't see any way Mayfield passes O Cath unless O Cath loses. With an O Cath loss, there is a good chance for Mayfield to get to #1.

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

For those wondering about Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield and what ifs, here is a primer on calculating some of RPI:

Let's look at the impact of Owensboro losing to North Hardin. Here is the link to Owensboro Catholic's RPI https://khsaa.org/rpi_details/?team_id=89880. If O Cath loses to North Hardin, they get a zero game value. A loss in RPI = 0. So take O Cath's WP 1.33998, multiplied by 9 (9 games currently played) to get a total of 12.0592. If they lose to North Hardin they get 0 so their total stays at 12.0592 (some variance will happen after Friday's results but we will leave it at 12.0592). Now divide by 10 to get 10 games played and O Cath's WP is 1.205982. Now you have to multiply that by .35 because WP equals 35% of RPI. That makes the number 0.42209. Multiply the current WP 1.33998 x 35% and you get 0.46899. Subtract 0.42209 and O Cath's RPI drops by 0.046903. Currently O Cath leads Mayfield by .03552. So yes, if O Cath loses to North Hardin, Mayfield looks like they could pass O Cath if Mayfield wins their game. Of course, we aren't factoring in the other 65% of the formula but the big numbers happen in the won loss column. 

If you want to look at OWP, we can pretty much calculate that now. O Cath has an OWP of .50854 x 9 = 4.57686. North Hardin's WP is .12500 added to 4.57686 = 4.70186 divided by 10 = .470186 x 35% of RPI =.1645651. Current OWP is .50854 x 35% = .177989. So we know for sure O Cath's OWP is dropping about .0134 Friday night. Mayfield's OWP will also drop because Christian County has a WP of .17464. Mayfield will gain a little here but not nearly enough to pass O Cath. 

The last 30% of RPI is OOWP and way too many variables to try and do a "simple" estimate of that number.

Bottom line, I don't see any way Mayfield passes O Cath unless O Cath loses. With an O Cath loss, there is a good chance for Mayfield to get to #1.

Wonder how many mayfield fans will be up at 2/3 am watching it!!  Same for OC fans!!

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Bottom line, I don't see any way Mayfield passes O Cath unless O Cath loses. With an O Cath loss, there is a good chance for Mayfield to get to #1.

I am glad you added this part at the end VoR!

56 minutes ago, sportsdad316 said:

Wonder how many mayfield fans will be up at 2/3 am watching it!!  Same for OC fans!!

I’m sure Beechwood fans will be watching it as well to see if LCA passes them. 

3 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

For those wondering about Owensboro Catholic, Mayfield and what ifs, here is a primer on calculating some of RPI:

Let's look at the impact of Owensboro losing to North Hardin. Here is the link to Owensboro Catholic's RPI https://khsaa.org/rpi_details/?team_id=89880. If O Cath loses to North Hardin, they get a zero game value. A loss in RPI = 0. So take O Cath's WP 1.33998, multiplied by 9 (9 games currently played) to get a total of 12.0592. If they lose to North Hardin they get 0 so their total stays at 12.0592 (some variance will happen after Friday's results but we will leave it at 12.0592). Now divide by 10 to get 10 games played and O Cath's WP is 1.205982. Now you have to multiply that by .35 because WP equals 35% of RPI. That makes the number 0.42209. Multiply the current WP 1.33998 x 35% and you get 0.46899. Subtract 0.42209 and O Cath's RPI drops by 0.046903. Currently O Cath leads Mayfield by .03552. So yes, if O Cath loses to North Hardin, Mayfield looks like they could pass O Cath if Mayfield wins their game. Of course, we aren't factoring in the other 65% of the formula but the big numbers happen in the won loss column. 

If you want to look at OWP, we can pretty much calculate that now. O Cath has an OWP of .50854 x 9 = 4.57686. North Hardin's WP is .12500 added to 4.57686 = 4.70186 divided by 10 = .470186 x 35% of RPI =.1645651. Current OWP is .50854 x 35% = .177989. So we know for sure O Cath's OWP is dropping about .0134 Friday night. Mayfield's OWP will also drop because Christian County has a WP of .17464. Mayfield will gain a little here but not nearly enough to pass O Cath. 

The last 30% of RPI is OOWP and way too many variables to try and do a "simple" estimate of that number.

Bottom line, I don't see any way Mayfield passes O Cath unless O Cath loses. With an O Cath loss, there is a good chance for Mayfield to get to #1.

Einstein

9 minutes ago, Cardinal4Life06 said:

Einstein

Appreciate that but it is a step by step formula. There are a couple quirks you have to be aware of but anyone could follow the steps above and figure out the WP and the OWP for a team.

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

Appreciate that but it is a step by step formula. There are a couple quirks you have to be aware of but anyone could follow the steps above and figure out the WP and the OWP for a team.

A humble Einstein. ?

If both Owensboro Catholic and Mayfield win:

Owensboro Catholic = .81502

Mayfield = .78677

These will not be absolutely accurate because I am not changing OOWP and OWP will also change a little after Friday's results. But you can see the big gap. No way Mayfield gains that much in the OOWP column. If Owensboro Catholic wins, they are #1.

Per calpreps.com, Owensboro Catholic 46 John Hardin 7

Not trying to take the hopes and drama away from Friday, but I think looking elsewhere for drama is a better option than this one.

LCA and Green County flipping spots would be a big deal too. Put that in your calculator and tell us probabilities.

2 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Appreciate that but it is a step by step formula. There are a couple quirks you have to be aware of but anyone could follow the steps above and figure out the WP and the OWP for a team.

Plugging and Chugging!!

20 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

If both Owensboro Catholic and Mayfield win:

Owensboro Catholic = .81502

Mayfield = .78677

These will not be absolutely accurate because I am not changing OOWP and OWP will also change a little after Friday's results. But you can see the big gap. No way Mayfield gains that much in the OOWP column. If Owensboro Catholic wins, they are #1.

Per calpreps.com, Owensboro Catholic 46 John Hardin 7

Not trying to take the hopes and drama away from Friday, but I think looking elsewhere for drama is a better option than this one.

North Hardin. Big difference in the two.

Edited October 25, 20232 yr by theguru

17 minutes ago, theguru said:

Plugging and Chugging!!

Expert and Novice!!!!

5 minutes ago, RMRed said:

LCA and Green County flipping spots would be a big deal too. Put that in your calculator and tell us probabilities.

If LCA loses and Green County wins, Green County could catch them. Green County has a better WP than LCA because Green County currently has wins over 6A, 5A, 4A, and two 3A schools. LCA has wins over 5A and two 3A. The rest of their wins are over 2A and 1A so no RPI bonus points in WP. 

Green County win over Taylor County (Green Co. is underdog) = RPI 0.738485

LCA loss to Raceland (LCA is 2 TD favorite) = RPI 0.72253

There is something for 2A fans to keep an eye on.