Active Weather Pattern Ahead

[nWo]

It appears that we are heading into an active weather pattern. Some could see some snow Sunday but what I'm concentrating on now is the middle to the end of next week. While we are about a week away from that I'm seeing possible severe weather for most if not all of Kentucky. A low-pressure system is forecast to pass to the northwest of Kentucky late Wednesday into Thursday. This system could be a strong one. It will pull warm moist air up from the Gulf. The leading edge of a cold air mass will run into this gulf air and strong to severe storms could break out ahead of it. The timing and exact path is till uncertain. I just wanted to let everyone know what I'm watching. The rest of February is looking interesting with both winter and severe weather events possible.  I will post updates as we get closer.

 

 

 

[nWo]

This will be a very quick lunch time update. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a 15% severe probabilities in the 6/7 day outlook (Wednesday/Thursday) next week.  When they do that so early it means they are expecting some to happen. At the moment, Kentucky is not included but, it reaches to Kentucky's  border with Tennessee.

[nWo]

 

As I expected the 15% area has been expanded to include much of Kentucky. The 15% means the chances of severe storms occurring is 15% more than normal.  Model guidance continues to show a very powerful upper-level system ejecting into the southern Great Plains  on Tuesday from the Desert Southwest.  Additional modification of the airmass across the northwest Gulf Coast will aid in severe-thunderstorm potential.  Surface dewpoints will probably reach the lower-mid 60s in the Arklatex on Wednesday into Wednesday  night.    A continuation 0f thunderstorm activity will likely occur into Thursday as the warm  sector potentially develops as far north as the OH Valley.  The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the severe risk as there is now greater confidence in the forecast surface-low track on Thursday being across parts of the  Midwest. 

[nWo]

Just wanted to touch base with everyone.  Strong to severe storms are still  possible late Wednesday night into Thursday.  All severe hazards are on the table, but main threat is damaging winds. There will be gusty winds outside of showers and storms also. 

Here's what the new model system I've started using is showing. The simulations are from 11 PM EST Wednesday to 10 AM EST Thursday.

This is the radar. Take note that it is showing individual cells instead of a line. This could mean supercells that could produce tornadoes. There is still some uncertainty on the severity of the possible storms.

 

This one everyone has seen me use previously. It shows where the run of the mill thunderstorms are. Also, the possible severe storms. You can see where the dark purple(severe thunderstorm) is in correspondence with the red in the above radar. It appears that this will be a nocturnal event so I suggest everyone keep checking back for updates. I may be able to do one in the morning before I leave for work. 

[nWo]

Tuesday morning update:

 

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast states northward into the Ohio Valley and Lake Erie vicinity on Thursday and Thursday evening. Severe gusts capable of wind damage and tornadoes are the primary severe hazards. 

Another severe episode, and potentially being in two rounds, is forecast on Thursday through Thursday evening. A large-scale, positively tilted  trough will gradually move from the central Great Plains into the Desert Southwest to the Great Lakes and Ozark Plateau. A cold front will sweep southeastward across the Ohio Valley before reaching the Appalachians. Considerable shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to be ongoing Thursday morning. Some of these storms, likely already grown upscale into lines and bands of storms, will probably pose some risk for strong, damaging gusts and perhaps a localized tornado risk. It is uncertain whether these initial storms continue east and some of them re-intensify during the day, or additional storms develop in their wake where some destabilization can occur.

The Storm Prediction Center has much of Kentucky in a level 2 Slight Risk Area. Most of the rest of the state is in a level 2 Marginal Risk Area.  Once again let me reiterate. This appears to be an nocturnal event some everyone should prepare away to be awaken if severe weather develops in your area. 

I plan on doing another update later today.