Marginal Risk for isolated strong storms (1/12/23)

[nWo]

 

Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, and Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main threat, but a brief tornado or two may also occur.

Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity as they move eastward across the Ohio Valley Thursday afternoon. Conditions could become favorable for isolated to scattered damaging winds will likely be the main severe threat. A brief tornado or two also appears possible with embedded circulations.

 

 

[nWo]

Wednesday morning update:

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the level 1 Marginal Risk Area to almost encompass the entire state. 

 

While it appears isolated strong to severe storms could occur anywhere in the level 1 area, My thinking at this time is that the best chance to see an isolated severe storm will be west of I-65. There is an isolated tornado threat through the morning of Thursday and a damaging wind threat through the afternoon. Most of the thunderstorms look to be light to moderate but some isolated severe storms that could occur. In this new European HRRR model I'm using for the first time today the thunderstorms are shown in light purple. The severe storms are illustrated by dark purple. The time of the model is from 1 am EST to 10 pm EST Thursday.  

There are a lot of new things coming in the future weather-wise here on BGP. I'll go into more depth soon.

 

[nWo]

Update:

 

Thunderstorms are expected across the region from around midnight tonight through early Thursday morning. A few strong to severe storms are possible with heavy downpours, small hail, and a few damaging wind gusts. A brief tornado can`t be ruled out close to the KY/TN border. Rainfall amounts mostly between .75" to1". Localized amounts up to 2" possible, especially southern Indiana and north central Kentucky.

The ECMWF HRES model covers the time from 2 am EST to 5 pm EST Thursday. Dark purple represents severe thunderstorms. Light purple light to moderate thunderstorms. This is only a approximation of where the storms might form not the exact position.