Marginal Risk for isolated strong storms (3/23/2022)

[nWo]

Increasing instability during the day will result in scattered thunderstorm development from Illinois southeastward into southern Indiana and central Kentucky. This will make conditions favorable for supercells with large hail. A few of the stronger supercells may have tornado potential, especially as the storms interact with the western edge of the low-level jet during the late afternoon. Wind damage will also be possible with the more organized storms during the late afternoon and early evening.

 

 

 

[nWo]

Just checked some of the model guidance. There is a slight tornado threat for portions of Kentucky east of I-75. As of now, some of the stronger isolated storms could spin up a week tornado EF-0 to EF1. Sections of southeast Kentucky could see a tornado or two a little higher on the EF scale. The limiting factors are there's not much forecast wind direction changing with height. That could change as the day progresses.  The SARS I'm posting covers almost all of Kentucky east of I-75. I'll try and post an update around mid-day.

 

[nWo]

The threat level has been raised for eastern Kentucky to a level 2 Slight Risk Area.

scattered thunderstorms will develop towards early afternoon across the Cumberland Plateau and spread northeast across the Upper Ohio Valley. The presence of the surface warm front suggests a few tornadoes and scattered large hail appear possible. The overall severe threat region-wide will subside after sunset.