Marginal Risk for isolated strong storms (3/18/2022)

[nWo]

 

A strong ascent associated with an approaching upper trough is forecast across the Ohio Valley ahead of a surface low and associated with a cold front that will be shifting northeastward into Kentucky Friday afternoon or evening. Weak instability is expected due to modest low-level moisture but conditions aloft will support scattered low-level storms.  For now, the severe modes look to be mainly gusty winds in the stronger storms. Check back for updates tomorrow. 

[nWo]

The Storm Prediction Center has raised the threat level for possible strong to severe thunderstorms for portions of Kentucky west of I-65. There is now a level 2 Slight Risk Area for that area. The rest of Kentucky still is under a level 1 Marginal Risk Area Friday.

 

 

Modest afternoon destabilization is expected as cold air aloft associated with an upper trough spreads atop the region. Individual areas of rising air circulating with height will cause several rounds of showers and storms. The most substantial activity possibly posing a bit greater potential for producing severe weather will likely revolve around the surface low and immediately east along the warm front as the low crosses southeastern Missouri through the afternoon and then the Ohio Valley during the evening hours. 

A strong southwesterly flow aloft across the area may result in occasional strong updrafts along with the fast motion. This plus low-level southeasterly flow ahead of the surface low should provide ample veering for at least occasional low-level rotation. The severe weather modes will be damaging winds/hail, and possibly a tornado or two for Kentucky mainly during the evening hours. Check back for update later today.

 

 

 

[nWo]

Thursday evening update:

 

The showers Friday morning will not be severe. Strong to severe storms are possible late afternoon for western Kentucky. Central Kentucky could see these possible storms from 6 pm EDT to midnight. The main threat is damaging winds, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible especially west of I-65. The Slight Risk Area continues from just east of I-65 back westward. I will update again in the morning.