LSU at #16 Kentucky Predictions/Updates

[16thBBall Fan]

LSU (3-2) coming off a 5 point loss at home vs Auburn comes to Lexington to take on the #16 ranked AP and #14 ranked Coaches Poll (5-0) Kentucky Wildcats. The game currently scheduled to kick at 7:30 on the SECN. The Cats need to keep the intensity up and come ready to play in this one. Go Cats!!

[nikeman49]

Ky 31

LSU 27

[The Raven]

Gut says LSU in a close one, but wouldn't be shocked at all if UK won.

[Bert]

4 hours ago, nikeman49 said:

Ky 31

LSU 27

Unless UK fixes its passing game this week, I don't see it scoring in the 30's against anyone on the rest of  their schedule not named Vanderbilt or New Mexico State.  If UK wins, I see it being another victory the Defense gives us.

[Kenny Powers]

12 hours ago, Bert said:

Unless UK fixes its passing game this week, I don't see it scoring in the 30's against anyone on the rest of  their schedule not named Vanderbilt or New Mexico State.  If UK wins, I see it being another victory the Defense gives us.

Are you ever going to give UK some credit for winning games? Every week it is the same thing from you... UK will get exposed here, UK will get exposed there, UK can't do this, UK can't do that, UK has no shot in East, yada yada yada. Time to face the reality that UK is a legit program in the SEC. Who cares how they win? A win is a win. 

[nikeman49]

12 hours ago, Bert said:

Unless UK fixes its passing game this week, I don't see it scoring in the 30's against anyone on the rest of  their schedule not named Vanderbilt or New Mexico State.  If UK wins, I see it being another victory the Defense gives us.

We shall see, LSU has some holes in the defense that I think Ky can exploit.

[Bert]

10 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

Are you ever going to give UK some credit for winning games? Every week it is the same thing from you... UK will get exposed here, UK will get exposed there, UK can't do this, UK can't do that, UK has no shot in East, yada yada yada. Time to face the reality that UK is a legit program in the SEC. Who cares how they win? A win is a win. 

Pretty sure what I really said last week before the game (rather than what you misinterpreted) was for UK to win, they will need some help from Florida such as turnovers and/or for Emory Jones to be as inconsistent as Florida fans have been complaining.  In this case, I wasn't too far off.  Instead of turnovers, it was the insane 15 penalties committed by Florida.  8 of which (or was it 9?) were drive killing false starts (thanks quite a bit to the UK fanbase in attendance).  Also, Gator receivers were fairly successful at getting open versus our db's, Jones was only so-so getting the pass to them as Gator fans have been complaining.  Cut the penalties down to normal levels and normal Florida quality passing, I don't see Florida not turning more of those stalled drives into scores and winning that game.  As I said pregame, for UK to win, Florida would have to help them with mistakes and Jones be as inconsistent as Florida fans complain about him. 

Also, luck was with UK for once in terms of where the blocked field goal landed.  The ball went right to one of UK's fastest players, one of the few who would not have been run down by Florida players and he had three or more players right in front of him to block for him.  That type of thing in the past usually happens to UK's opponents, we finally got one in our favor.   I really disagree with a win is a win.  A solid win where you out rush your opponent, where you out pass your opponent and where you beat them in third down conversions is far better because you are more likely to repeat that solid play week after week.  A win like against Florida, where your opponent out rushes you, out passes you, has a better third down conversion ratio but you still win due to their penalties and deflected field goal going just to the right place is not something you can repeat with any real confidence.  If UK and Florida were to play 4 more times, does anyone really feel confident that they would not win three of those games?

In regards to LSU, I wasn't beating down UK, I was commenting on a prediction in the thread that said UK would score 31 points by my saying that unless UK fixes the passing game, UK won't score 31 points on decent teams which......I say is a reasonable assertion.  When your offense completes 7 of 17 for 82 yards, your offense will have to be very run dominated.  Run dominated offenses drain numerous minutes off the clock on successful drives resulting in teams generally not having enough drives to score 31.  Unfortunately your opponent will realize your pass game is susceptible and stack the box, further slowing down drives eating more clock, making getting to 31 even more difficult.  However, because you ate so much clock, your opponent most likely won't score in the 30's either due to not having enough drives also so I could see this game being a low scoring game if UK sticks with running far more than passing.  If UK can fix the passing game and pass the ball like they did against Mizzou, scratch what I said, UK could easily go to the 30's with an effective passing and rushing offense, plus home field advantage.  If UK does fix the passing game, I say it is highly unlikely UK will lose to anyone in the regular season not named Georgia, if they do not fix the passing game, I doubt Georgia will be UK's only loss this season.

The LSU game I think will come down to two areas: talent versus coaching and UK's run defense compared to their pass defense.  LSU has the obvious edge in terms of talent based upon their consistently high recruiting rankings, their coaching so far has not been able to get the most of that talent.  UK's recruiting has improved quite a bit, but still not LSU or Florida like.  UK I believe has an edge in coaching.  Which will come out on top, talent or coaching?

In terms of run versus pass defense, UK has really good run defense, their pass defense is a little shaky.  This worked out with Florida.  Florida came into last Saturday as the 3rd leading rushing team with a very average passing game.  UK's defense (with the help of numerous false start penalties to be fair) was able to contain both.  LSU (per what I have read at least) relies much heavier on their passing game than Florida and it is supposedly pretty good at passing.  How well will UK be able to handle a good pass oriented offense?  I do worry their wide receivers will be too fast for our defensive backs.  Can UK's linemen, defensive ends and linebackers rush the LSU QB enough to negate the speed advantage of LSU wide receivers?  That may determine the game.

[John Anthony]

12 hours ago, nikeman49 said:

We shall see, LSU has some holes in the defense that I think Ky can exploit.

Considering they lost to UCLA I agree.  Joe Burrow isn’t on this team folks, no reason to fear this mediocre Tiger team.

[Bert]

4 hours ago, John Anthony said:

Considering they lost to UCLA I agree.  Joe Burrow isn’t on this team folks, no reason to fear this mediocre Tiger team.

Do you feel any of the teams after the UGA game are actually better than LSU?

I cannot wait to see the atmosphere at Commonwealth Saturday night.

[John Anthony]

11 hours ago, Bert said:

Do you feel any of the teams after the UGA game are actually better than LSU?

I cannot wait to see the atmosphere at Commonwealth Saturday night.

Absolutely not, Georgia is a big problem, UK is better than everyone else they play on paper, excluding Georgia.

[jvdfc]

Cats 24  LSU 17

[Jumper_Dad]

I expect another game like last week. UK needs to sustain drives and convert some 3rd downs this week. It appears as if the game plan last week was to work to get 3rd and short for easy conversions, which was a struggle. I'd like to see some Play Action or even a little RPO mixed it on first and second down. Hopefully a couple of them could hit for big plays.

[GOREDDEVILS]

Kentucky with be without Marquan MCCall and Josh Ali for a few weeks. Josh for 2 weeks or so and Marquan for 5-6.

[futurecoach]

6 hours ago, GOREDDEVILS said:

Kentucky with be without Marquan MCCall and Josh Ali for a few weeks. Josh for 2 weeks or so and Marquan for 5-6.

Luckily the best Corner in the country is now out for this game for LSU in Derek Stingley. 

[GOREDDEVILS]

1 hour ago, futurecoach said:

Luckily the best Corner in the country is now out for this game for LSU in Derek Stingley. 

Major Burns the another starting db is out also with foot injury per ksr. Kentucky can exploit that.