Active Weather Week Ahead

[nWo]

I've been looking ahead towards next week. The Climate Prediction Center is showing in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook. The outlook both show we are in for quite possibly the coldest air of this winter as a possible Polar Vortex affects our weather in Kentucky. 

Here is what the Climate Prediction Center is showing.

 

This is because a Polar Vortex is forecast to affect Kentucky by next weekend. The following map shows the vortex moving into Kentucky next week. It will move in after a possible winter storm that could drop the most snow of this winter on portions of Kentucky.

 

We could see a several rounds wintry precipitation during the upcoming week. Freezing rain, Ice and snow. I'm watching this situation that could  possibly turn into a significant winter week after Monday. Update will come tomorrow. 

 

 

 

[nWo]

Sunday morning update:

This update will concentrate on the period from Tuesday evening through Thursday evening. If the modeling data is correct Kentucky could see a ice storm during this period. The models disagree some with the amounts, timing and exact track  but they all are showing something moving into Kentucky sometime on Tuesday evening.

First the GFS, it is showing rain and freezing rain entering Kentucky Tuesday evening and lasting through Thursday evening.

The Euro has the rain/freezing rain moving in later Tuesday evening but also lasting off and on through Thursday evening. Also it has the most of the freezing rain from around I-64 northward.

 

The Canadian has the rain/freezing rain affecting mostly western Kentucky northeastward through the Cincinnati/NKY area.

 

Now I want to discuss the possible wind gusts. This could be significant along with the possible freezing rain accumulations.  The following wind gust maps correspond with the maps above. As everyone can see we could see wind gust from around 15 to 20 mph. Western Kentucky could see some approaching 30 mph. 

 

GFS

 

The Euro

 

Canadian

 

Now lets see what the models are showing for possible freezing rain accumulations.

GFS

 

The Euro

The Canadian

 

If we get the freezing rain accumulations that  the models are showing and the forecast wind gust some could experience some isolated or localized power outages. Also the roads and bridges could become slick and hazardous. According to the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulations Index.

 

This is a situation I'm going to be watching closely. The main reason it was the 2009 Ice Storm that got me into studying and taking classes on weather prediction. I'm not saying it will be anything like that but only time will tell.  After this system moves through we are looking at some more snow.  Keep checking back for updates.

 

[nWo]

I'm able to bring the NAM into the forecast. While it is still at the very end of the NAM run it is also showing some freezing rain accumulations. The NAM is showing about the same wind gusts as the other models.

 

 

Here is what the NAM is showing for freezing rain accumulations through early Thursday morning.

 

 

Keep checking back for updates. If the models continue to show what they are showing we could possibly be in for a significant winter weather event this upcoming week.

[nWo]

Tuesday evening update

We are in for a major winter storm with both accumulating snow and freezing rain. Some quite possibly lose power from the weight of the ice on powerlines and tree limbs falling.

Here is the very latest model runs. The time period covered is from around 7 am EST Wednesday morning to 1 am EST Friday morning 

GFS

 

NAM

They pretty much agree on the track of the system but we are still around 36 hours away or so from it entering Kentucky so things could change. As of now it looks like the snow will be from around I-64 northward. Those south of I-64 could be looking at some significant freezing rain accumulations.

 

Here are what the models are showing for snow and freezing rain accumulations.

 

GFS

 

NAM

 

 

 

Please note that the snow fall totals include what could fall later tonight into the day on Wednesday in the Cincinnati/NKY area.

 

Once again here is the chart to give everyone an ideal on what could happen with the freezing rain totals.

 

This could be a very serious situation so everyone should be prepared to be without power for few hours to a day or so. That is if you should lose power in your area.

[nWo]

Good morning, we have a serious developing situation. That will begin today for some and last until some time on Friday. The Cincinnati/NKY area is looking at receiving 5-10 inches of snow. That amount could reach a foot of accumulation. The snow appears that it will be  confined north of I-64. South of that the models are in pretty good agreement that most of Kentucky is looking at upwards to .60 of an inch of freezing rain. Some portions of eastern Kentucky could receive around .75 of an inch.

The combination of the weight of freezing rain accumulations on power lines and tree limbs plus wind gusts of around 25 mph some will see some power outages. Everyone should be preparing now for this what could be a dangerous situation. 
Here are the maps I've used this morning

Here are the maps I've used this morning

GFS radar

 

NAM Radar

 

Wind gust maps

GFS

 

 

Snow accumulations

GFS

 

NAM

 

Freezing rain

GFS

 

NAM

I would be surprised at all if a Winter Storm  or Ice Storm Warning to be issued some time later today or early tomorrow for portions of Kentucky south of I-64. I will update later today.

[nWo]

One thing I forgot to add is that Friday will be the end of this system. Another one is forecast to move into Kentucky on Sunday bring the state another chance at freezing rain accumulations.