Belfry at Ashland Predictions/Updates (3A Semifinals)

[ATLCat]

Seriously, Actually taking a shot at answering instead...

It really is hard to tell because I don't think 2020 has allowed us to get a full read on what either team really is right now. 

- Ashland is missing those "headliner" games you can usually tell the most about them. No Ironton, no Spring Valley, etc. All we know is they played a pretty good Raceland team and romped them and they played a pretty good Russell team and won twice with the second being a nail biter. Neither team remotely resembles Belfry on multiple levels.

- Belfry's injury situation and the herky jerky flow of 2020 has made it hard to actually see continuity and what to expect from them. 

On defense, LB Seth Mounts and DE Rudy Blackwell are massive gears in their Front 7. Mounts missed most of the season after getting hurt early on and Belfry struggled in the middle of their defense as a result. Blackwell had a torn ACL last year in the Semi-Finals and just did get cleared to return at the end of the season right as COVID jacked up the schedule. On top of that, the Savage kid on the DLine was a late addition to the roster and it took him until mid-season to get on the field and now he has been a massive help to a D-Line that otherwise was struggling.

We also haven't seen a good stretch to judge Belfry's offense. Dixon is that dude. Everyone knows that. What we didn't see until the North Hardin game was the creativity of Belfry's play calling to move him around, utilize Coleman more, and throw some wrinkles to make defenses think how to stop Belfry. The game that we should have seen that was Johnson Central, but even that game was kind of atypical. Belfry fumbled away immediately their first possession of each Half and JC took advantage. With the clock rolling due to both offensive philosophies we only got to see what we already knew. Dixon makes big plays and Belfry struggles to win coming from behind down multiple scores.

 

 

Long way around.. if Ashland holds Belfry to 14 or above I don't see the Pirates winning because I don't think this is possible without either taking away Dixon or Belfry turning it over. If Belfry scores 4 TD's or more it is going to be very difficult for Ashland to win.

 

- Bell County's disappointing season makes it hard to take anything out of that game. The Bobcats did not meet expectations and did not match up with the team speed of either team. It was easy to say "WOW" when Ashland beat them 36-0, it was easy to say "WOW" when belfry had that same 36-0 lead before Halftime. The truth is, Bell County just did not have any fats twitch biers and both teams busted big plays as a result. Additionally, Bell County's lack of speed and playmaking meant they brought zero threat to a team with good team speed on defense. Bell simply was bringing a knife into a gun fight.

 

 

 

So.... with all that said.

1. Ashland has playmakers. They have great team speed on D and two guys who can house it any play.

2. Belfry has playmakers. They have excellent sideline to sideline tactical speed on Defense and some thumpers. They also have arguably the most electric player in Kentucky on offense and Brett Coleman is one of the most underrated rushers when he is getting up the field.

3. Neither team has seen a similar foe. North Hardin had a stud RB, but their offense was very elementary and they did a poor job of creating a vertical passing threat (like Ashland can do). Pikeville does a great job with scheme and hard running between tackles. JC just bludgeons you to death. Raceland and Russell are hard nosed and physical teams, but their scheme is based on spacing and finesse.

4. I don't think Ashland's defense is going to be any faster than North Hardin or any more physical. I don't think they are going to be as skilled of tacklers as well. I think this gives us part of the answer as long as Belfry executes and holds on to the ball. The Pirates scored 20 on the Trojans. I think it is safe to assume Belfry stands a good chance of scoring three times.

I don't think it is fair to say Belfry will be able to duplicate what Russell did when they held Ashland to 10 points. That was the second time seeing them and they had a mental edge from the previous blowout loss to motivate Russell in a positive direction. I don't think Ashland sets a new highwater mark of points against Belfry. I think the Tomcats also end up somewhere between 14-28 points.

 

 

[ATLCat]

After that novel might as well knock out my prediction while everything is front of mind.

Let's go ahead and establish turnovers are the single biggest variable in this. Assuming both teams play mistake free football in that regard:

I think Ashland hits some explosion plays. I think Belfry hits an equal amount. I think playing on chewed up grass has a negative effect on a Belfry team who only played one game off of turf all season. I think Belfry's schedule has better prepared them for the speed of the game. I think Isaac Dixon is the best player in Class 3A and destined to write his name in the history books of Belfry football.

Give me Belfry 27-24.

[nikeman49]

Belfry 35

Ashlland 17

[Voice of Reason]

4 hours ago, ATLCat said:

After that novel might as well knock out my prediction while everything is front of mind.

Let's go ahead and establish turnovers are the single biggest variable in this. Assuming both teams play mistake free football in that regard:

I think Ashland hits some explosion plays. I think Belfry hits an equal amount. I think playing on chewed up grass has a negative effect on a Belfry team who only played one game off of turf all season. I think Belfry's schedule has better prepared them for the speed of the game. I think Isaac Dixon is the best player in Class 3A and destined to write his name in the history books of Belfry football.

Give me Belfry 27-24.

How does possible poor field conditions impact this game?

[theguru]

History lesson on Ashland vs. Belfry.

ASHLAND VS. BELFRY
Ashland leads series 18-4
Home: Ashland leads 11-1
Away: Ashland leads 7-3
Playoffs: Ashland leads 4-2

1937: Ashland-H, 69-0
1949: Ashland-H, 55-0
1957: Ashland-H, 34-13
1967: Ashland-H#, 42-0
1970: Ashland-A, 46-6
1971: Ashland-H, 54-20
1972: Ashland-A*, 57-6
1975: Ashland-A, 47-6
1987: Ashland-A#, 27-13
1988: Ashland-A#, 21-13
1989: Belfry-H#, 31-14
1990: Ashland-A#, 35-20
1991: Ashland-H, 22-18
1992: Belfry-A, 28-25
1998: Ashland-H, 19-14
2001: Ashland-H, 42-21
2006: Ashland-H, 28-27
2009: Ashland-A, 22-20
2010: Ashland-H, 36-22
2011: Belfry-A, 7-6
2012: Ashland-H, 35-20
2019: Belfry-A#, 41-7
#-Playoffs
*-Williamson, W.VA.

Thanks to Mark Maynard for that list!

[ATLCat]

10 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

How does possible poor field conditions impact this game?

- Belfry has not played but one game on anything other than turf. Regardless I think that will have an effect to some degree whether the field is dry or wet regardless.

- One mis-conception is Belfry's offense is built for a muddy game. I disagree. The Pirates depend heavily on their linemen getting blocks up and getting to the LB's and with as much ball handling for fakes and reads as well as the cuts needed for what Belfry does, I am not convinced it is an offense best equipped for adverse field conditions.

- With that said, Ashland's game is speed and explosion. No doubt a muddy track would effect that as well. Ashland also maintains good balance and passes good bit. One oft heir advantages this game would be their vertical passing game, but that may be effected.

- Isaac Dixon is a freak. His feet and ability to change direction on a dime are what makes him special. A wet or muddy field is not ideal for his style of running.

Watch these highlights from Friday of Dixon doing what he does and I am not sure all them happen on a muddy track.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6313407/5fcd18015ca90f09909a6f18

[Tomcats1990]

14 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

I know there is a lot of pride in Putnam Stadium as a facility. What is being done by the stadium maintenance crew to prepare the field for this game? I read in the thread on the last Friday's game that Putnam was a pig pen. 

Well Putnam to be honest relies on volunteers to paint the field and for the Bermuda grass. For years Doug Childers from the late Ashland Green house took great care of the playing surface free of charge  and the field is named after him . After his death I’m not sure who looked after it for 15 or 20 years.  Luckily they have a retiree who used to be Head of Maintenance for UK when  Commonwealth-Kroger Field had Bermuda. He does a excellent job with very little funds minus the 35k to 40k on water per year. I went by the field it’s definitely not as bad as some but in the worst shape I’ve ever seen. Honestly Ashland usually isn’t playing home games in Dec. it’s been 30 years since they won the region and doubtful they will have time or money to do much besides Mother Nature dry It out and  throw sand around  on the poor areas and play ball.

[Tomcats1990]

1 hour ago, ATLCat said:

- Belfry has not played but one game on anything other than turf. Regardless I think that will have an effect to some degree whether the field is dry or wet regardless.

- One mis-conception is Belfry's offense is built for a muddy game. I disagree. The Pirates depend heavily on their linemen getting blocks up and getting to the LB's and with as much ball handling for fakes and reads as well as the cuts needed for what Belfry does, I am not convinced it is an offense best equipped for adverse field conditions.

- With that said, Ashland's game is speed and explosion. No doubt a muddy track would effect that as well. Ashland also maintains good balance and passes good bit. One oft heir advantages this game would be their vertical passing game, but that may be effected.

- Isaac Dixon is a freak. His feet and ability to change direction on a dime are what makes him special. A wet or muddy field is not ideal for his style of running.

Watch these highlights from Friday of Dixon doing what he does and I am not sure all them happen on a muddy track.

https://www.hudl.com/video/3/6313407/5fcd18015ca90f09909a6f18

It definitely will affect both teams however Ashland plays 90 percent or more of It’s games on grass and played In the mud last week. Advantage Ashland. These Tomcat Seniors remember beating JC a few years back for the District Title when no one gave them a punchers chance and know what they need to do to pull the upset. Last seasons loss to Belfry has haunted them for over a year and I look for Ashland to play inspired Football and pull the upset. 24-21

[DevilMayCare]

Pittman is the name most people associate with Ashland, and for good reason, but JT Garrett has been every bit as valuable to the Tomcats this year. He had a solid junior season, but he's really come on this year as a player opponents have to game plan for. Ashland likes to get creative to get Garrett involved and take advantage of his versatility. He'll line up out wide, in the slot, in the backfield as a halfback or wildcat QB… he runs it, catches it, and throws it… reverses, jet sweeps, fake jet sweep passes, throwback WR passes… he's got great lateral quickness, the speed to run away from people, great hands, and a good arm. 

You get the picture. He's all over the field with a variety of skills and must be accounted for at all times. If you're defending Ashland, shadowing Pittman is a must, but do yourself a favor and don't lose track of #17.

[DevilMayCare]

Russell's increased physicality in the district final helped close the gap on Ashland considerably. That's why I have a feeling Belfry is going to dictate that aspect of the game in heavy handed fashion. It's not that Ashland isn't physical. They don't shy away from contact, but physical is Belfry's identity. There's a difference between Ashland physical and Belfry physical. That's not to say that Ashland won't or can't win this game, but they can't get swallowed up by a tidal wave of Pirates drive after drive like last year.

[tomcat1984]

I’ve not walked up to Putnam to look at the field but if it’s worse than after the Bell/Ashland playoff game we lost 13-3 on a rainy night, footing in areas could be dicey but with dry weather and warming temps later this week it should be fairly dry. We’ve put down rye grass before after tearing up the field in November games but I don’t think it would do any good this time around. Now if Ashland matches Belfry physically and doesn’t turn the ball over it should be a great game but if Ashland turns it over I don’t see them being in it at the end. 
 

Also got to give Pittman credit in signing with Army. 

Edited December 8, 2020 by tomcat1984
Forgot to add info

[Mew Nanny]

The field should be fine after the warm a dry weather predicted this week.  I don't see it as a factor.

The difference will be the play of the OL and DL for each team.  Who controls that line of scrimmage?  Which team has the advantage there?

[ATLCat]

1 hour ago, Mew Nanny said:

The field should be fine after the warm a dry weather predicted this week.  I don't see it as a factor.

The difference will be the play of the OL and DL for each team.  Who controls that line of scrimmage?  Which team has the advantage there?

Belfry

[gchs_uk9]

On 12/7/2020 at 3:09 PM, Tomcats1990 said:

Honestly Ashland usually isn’t playing home games in Dec.

This is a good point regarding fields. The state finals were for years on Thanksgiving weekend and then moved to the first weekend in December in 1991. No high school fields have been played on in December in a very long time so expecting them to be in tip-top shape this week is unrealistic. I'm guessing Putnam Stadium will be more than adequate for the game Friday night.

[GOREDDEVILS]

Belfry Wins 35-21.