BGP Severe Weather Alert through Saturday (8/29/2020)

[nWo]

The remnants of Hurricane Laura should enter Kentucky on Friday. The National Hurricane Center says Laura should be located over northeast Arkansas by Friday morning. It is forecast to advance east-northeast through western Tennessee and Kentucky. The environment associated with the remnants of Laura should remain favorable for a few tornadoes, especially during the afternoon when the atmospheric conditions will be more unstable. However, the threat may continue into the overnight across portions of Tennessee and Kentucky as the system moves east. 

 

 

The potential for flash flooding is high. A general 1-3 inches of rain accumulation is in the forecast. There could be some localized amounts up to 4 inches. 

 

 

The European model is coming in with heavier rainfall than the NAM. Both are showing most of the heaviest rainfall will remain south of I-64. Please note that if the system tracks further north the rain field will also shift in that direction.

The Euro:

 

 

The NAM:

I will post an update later today.

 

[PP1]

Looks like NKY may be in the slight range? If I am reading it correctly.

[nWo]

4 hours ago, PP1 said:

Looks like NKY may be in the slight range? If I am reading it correctly.

The latest GFS and Canadian models want to bring the rain field a little further north than this morning's runs. I'm wondering if they are on to something The UKMET and NAM still are seeing a more southerly track. So we'll have to wait until this afternoon's runs to see what they are showing. One thing to note. The rainfall accumulations may have to be raised. Especially in western Kentucky where a Flash Flood Watch has already been issued. Some of the models are now showing a possibility of localized 5". If everyone remembers the UKMET was saying that earlier in the week.

[nWo]

This will be pretty short. For now I'm going to stay with a widespread 1-3 inches mainly south of I-64. I will post a more comprehensive forecast early tomorrow morning.

[nWo]

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage as the day moves along. Remnants of Laura will drop 1-3" or rain of sections of Kentucky. This may cause some flash flooding issues. In some of the stronger storms strong wind gusts will be possible. The threat still remains for some weak tornadoes to form. This is mainly in Southern Kentucky. The timing appears to be from mid afternoon through the evening hours.

The Storm Prediction Center has lowered the severe weather threat. Most of Kentucky is now in a category 1 Marginal Risk for isolated strong to severe storms.

 

 

[nWo]

The Storm Prediction Center has increase the severe weather threat for Southcentral Kentucky.