It gets on my nerves that people talk like "Vegas" is filled with geniuses and is all knowing. Any time a game ends up one point either side of the line, people shake their head and talk about the Vegas geniuses. I don't buy it. The fact is, Vegas didn't set that line - you did with your bets.

 

Vegas doesn't even really determine the lines on games. All Vegas does is make an educated guess on where the public betting sentiment is. They aren't trying to pick who will win and lose games. They set the betting line with the goal to split the bets. Once that line is set, they aren't even in control of the line - the betting public is. If Vegas guesses wrong on the line initially and the bets start going too heavily one way, the line moves until the action from the public tells them (not them telling us) where the line should be. There could be a game that starts out with a team as a 4 point favorite and then by the time game day gets here, they are a 7 point favorite. What is genius about that? The public sentiment and knowledge sets the final line in games as much if not more than Vegas does. What am I missing?

Those casinos aren’t built because the people in Vegas are “good guessers”. Yes they adjust their odds in order to get people to bet a certain way but usually when it’s too good to be true Vegas is right.

Those casinos aren’t built because the people in Vegas are “good guessers”. Yes they adjust their odds in order to get people to bet a certain way but usually when it’s too good to be true Vegas is right.

 

I'm not talking about the casinos. Setting slots winning percents, the odds in cards or other games aren't the topic at hand. I am talking about sports and betting.

I'm not talking about the casinos. Setting slots winning percents, the odds in cards or other games aren't the topic at hand. I am talking about sports and betting.

No difference there wouldn’t be sports gambling if the sports books weren’t winning.

I've always felt people talking about Vegas were referring to the betting public.

The fact is, Vegas didn't set that line - you did with your bets.

 

Vegas doesn't even really determine the lines on games. All Vegas does is make an educated guess on where the public betting sentiment is. They aren't trying to pick who will win and lose games. They set the betting line with the goal to split the bets. Once that line is set, they aren't even in control of the line - the betting public is.

 

They set the original to start the betting. I understand it adjust but they are pretty good on the original line. If they were not they wouldn’t still be in business.

I've always felt people talking about Vegas were referring to the betting public.

 

Me too. I never thought there was some genius doing the setting of the line and adjusting. I always thought the bettors determined the line. It is just a saying that Vegas sets the line.

Exactly what is your beef VoR?

Vegas betting lines are the original 'crowd sourcing' knowledge base. If you believe in the wisdom of the large crowd - then you believe in Vegas lines.

 

They care not of the winner and get their squeeze no matter what in most cases. I am astonished how good they are in most cases at setting the line at the opening and on game day. They are way better than horse race handicappers for sure.

The ultimate goal for them is to get 50/50 action obviously. That very rarely happens so for them to make money they need to set the line in order for the majority of the money being a loser. They seem to have an odd knack for doing so. A lot more than just good guessers.

I have never bet a dime on a game in my life, so pardon what will be a completely ignorant question. Let's say you are one of the first to place a bet when the "line" is something like 7.5 points. You take the underdog and the points. By the time the game rolls around, the line is 4.5 points. Game ends up being a 6 point difference, with the favorite winning. Do you end up winning, because you got a different line than those who placed their bets later?

I have never bet a dime on a game in my life, so pardon what will be a completely ignorant question. Let's say you are one of the first to place a bet when the "line" is something like 7.5 points. You take the underdog and the points. By the time the game rolls around, the line is 4.5 points. Game ends up being a 6 point difference, with the favorite winning. Do you end up winning, because you got a different line than those who placed their bets later?

 

Yes. When you place your bet, the lines are set.

I have never bet a dime on a game in my life, so pardon what will be a completely ignorant question. Let's say you are one of the first to place a bet when the "line" is something like 7.5 points. You take the underdog and the points. By the time the game rolls around, the line is 4.5 points. Game ends up being a 6 point difference, with the favorite winning. Do you end up winning, because you got a different line than those who placed their bets later?

 

Yes. When you place your bet, the lines are set.

 

You are correct. I wish horse racing was the same.

You are correct. I wish horse racing was the same.

 

AMEN (Only get that on futures)

I have never bet a dime on a game in my life, so pardon what will be a completely ignorant question. Let's say you are one of the first to place a bet when the "line" is something like 7.5 points. You take the underdog and the points. By the time the game rolls around, the line is 4.5 points. Game ends up being a 6 point difference, with the favorite winning. Do you end up winning, because you got a different line than those who placed their bets later?

 

And a few professionals make a living betting both sides of this so they can win both bets. Usually it is a spread between two different casinos.

 

And I would love to know what the biggest spread difference was from opening line until it went off. Without a siginificant injury or suspension, I can’t believe it is more than a couple points.