January 6, 20188 yr Barring injury NFL games dont move a whole lot. Most sports books move lines when others do. Best middles, IMO, are on smaller college games or their totals. If you got a local that moves his lines based on hometown teams and you got 2 sources you can get a decent middle sometimes.
January 6, 20188 yr And a few professionals make a living betting both sides of this so they can win both bets. Usually it is a spread between two different casinos. And I would love to know what the biggest spread difference was from opening line until it went off. Without a siginificant injury or suspension, I can’t believe it is more than a couple points. Usually won't shift more than 3 points unless something major like a Rodgers or Brady going down late in the week in practice happens.
January 8, 20188 yr And a few professionals make a living betting both sides of this so they can win both bets. Usually it is a spread between two different casinos. And I would love to know what the biggest spread difference was from opening line until it went off. Without a siginificant injury or suspension, I can’t believe it is more than a couple points. NFL doesn't move much (3 or 4 points is a big move) but college lines can move up to 7-10 points
January 8, 20188 yr Another point is that Vegas doesn't have to move the number if betting is 80-20 on one side. Also, they can sucker the public by moving it in the opposite direction too. They do a lot more than you think and they are very good at it.
January 15, 20188 yr Author @UKMustangFan Replying here to this post by you in the other: No offense, but this reads like someone who doesn't bet and doesn't have any interest in betting. They hit way more frequently than they miss. They make hand over fist every single day. If they weren't highly intelligent and good at what they do, that wouldn't be the case. Yes, I don't bet. Yes, they surely hit more than they miss. Yes, they make a boatload of money. Now my question ... when you say they hit more than they miss, what are they hitting/missing on? I give as much credit if not more to the general betting public than I do to Vegas. It is the betting public that often moves the line within a point of a final score, not some genius in the control room in Vegas. The real genius of Vegas is not how they set bets. It is how they get to keep changing the deal based on how the money is flowing. That minimizes losses and maximizes wins for their pocket book.
January 15, 20188 yr @UKMustangFan Replying here to this post by you in the other: No offense, but this reads like someone who doesn't bet and doesn't have any interest in betting. They hit way more frequently than they miss. They make hand over fist every single day. If they weren't highly intelligent and good at what they do, that wouldn't be the case. Yes, I don't bet. Yes, they surely hit more than they miss. Yes, they make a boatload of money. Now my question ... when you say they hit more than they miss, what are they hitting/missing on? I give as much credit if not more to the general betting public than I do to Vegas. It is the betting public that often moves the line within a point of a final score, not some genius in the control room in Vegas. The real genius of Vegas is not how they set bets. It is how they get to keep changing the deal based on how the money is flowing. That minimizes losses and maximizes wins for their pocket book. The public can move the line a little, but who sets the initial lines?
January 15, 20188 yr @UKMustangFan Replying here to this post by you in the other: No offense, but this reads like someone who doesn't bet and doesn't have any interest in betting. They hit way more frequently than they miss. They make hand over fist every single day. If they weren't highly intelligent and good at what they do, that wouldn't be the case. Yes, I don't bet. Yes, they surely hit more than they miss. Yes, they make a boatload of money. Now my question ... when you say they hit more than they miss, what are they hitting/missing on? I give as much credit if not more to the general betting public than I do to Vegas. It is the betting public that often moves the line within a point of a final score, not some genius in the control room in Vegas. The real genius of Vegas is not how they set bets. It is how they get to keep changing the deal based on how the money is flowing. That minimizes losses and maximizes wins for their pocket book. They're goal is to set the line so that they can make as much money as possible. They hit and accomplish that at an absurdly high level.
January 15, 20188 yr Author The public can move the line a little, but who sets the initial lines? They're goal is to set the line so that they can make as much money as possible. They hit and accomplish that at an absurdly high level. Guys ... I am not that far off from you on this discussion. I don't disagree with your comments here. My main points are 1. The public does move lines and when they do Vegas still gets the credit i.e Vikings 5.5 which started the week set at about 3. 2. Vegas is not predicting games. They are predicting how bettors will bet on the games.
January 15, 20188 yr Guys ... I am not that far off from you on this discussion. I don't disagree with your comments here. My main points are 1. The public does move lines and when they do Vegas still gets the credit i.e Vikings 5.5 which started the week set at about 3. 2. Vegas is not predicting games. They are predicting how bettors will bet on the games. Vegas has a VERY good idea of where a line is going to go when they set it. If you don't think they very carefully and systematically set that initial line based on where they think it'll end up, we're not anywhere close to being in agreement.
January 15, 20188 yr Guys ... I am not that far off from you on this discussion. I don't disagree with your comments here. My main points are 1. The public does move lines and when they do Vegas still gets the credit i.e Vikings 5.5 which started the week set at about 3. 2. Vegas is not predicting games. They are predicting how bettors will bet on the games. But you are that far off, because you are giving Vegas NO credit for the lines and spreads.
January 15, 20188 yr The initial line is what makes Vegas so smart. Do you think they arbitrarily pick a number. They do a ton of research and use computer algorithms to set the line. They are not trying to pick who wins and by how much. They are trying to get a line so half the money is bet on one side and the other half on the other. Once the line is set, if more money is betting one side, the line moves to get more on the other. The “genius” is the initial line. And yes, many times, the final comes out close to the final score. Edited January 15, 20188 yr by littleluck55
January 15, 20188 yr I'm not trying to be a jerk but this is one of the more pointless threads in the history of BGP. I'm not even sure after reading it still, what the point is.
January 15, 20188 yr The initial line is what makes Vegas so smart. Do you think they arbitrarily pick a number. They do a ton of research and use computer algorithms to set the line. They are not trying to pick who wins and by how much. They are trying to get a line so half the money is bet on one side and the other half on the other. Once the line is set, if more money is betting one side, the line moves to get more on the other. The “genius” is the initial line. And yes, many times, the final comes out close to the final score. This is not always the case. There are reverse line movements. If 80% of the money is on the favorite but the line goes down, this is a sure sign that smart money, or large wagers made by single individuals or betting syndicates, has come in on the underdog. It can many times be about "smart" money more than the amounts. This shows even more the genius of Vegas.
January 15, 20188 yr Author I'm not trying to be a jerk but this is one of the more pointless threads in the history of BGP. I'm not even sure after reading it still, what the point is. :laugh: I started this as a rant as much as anything. One of those things (hype about Vegas being all knowing on picking games) that I find annoying even though I don't even bet. Are you a bettor?
January 15, 20188 yr @Voice of Reason , what would have to happen for Vegas to be right? You said in the other thread they miss more than they hit so what do they have to do in your eyes? Get the scores exactly right? You are ok giving the betting public the credit for being right except the betting public loses more than they win so how smart can they really be.
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