It seems that many think District 5 will get swept from the playoffs. Does Fleming County have enough to get by the first round or does Garrard bring the broom to Flemingsburg?

This could be one of the best first round games in the state. I would not be surprised if Garrard comes away with the win. My guess is Garrard 24 - Flemming 19

With Crump playing, they will score more than 19. The question will be how well they stop Garrard County.

Garrard playing with house money at this point. I think they play loose, open offense up again and come away with the W.

Garrard playing with house money at this point. I think they play loose, open offense up again and come away with the W.

 

Garrard did some things offensively against Rockcastle County that was impressive. Offense isn't really the problem for Garrard, though, as other than games against Danville and Boyle, they've been able to move the ball and score. Defense has been an issue, having given up over 40 points five times in their last seven games. If they can keep Fleming County off the scoreboard the Golden Lions can win the ballgame. However, that's a big if.

Garrard hasnt won a game in almost 2 months, Seems a stretch that they will upset Fleming

Garrard hasnt won a game in almost 2 months, Seems a stretch that they will upset Fleming

 

That's easy to say but then you look at their schedule and see that they've played Danville, Boyle County Western Hills, Lexington Catholic and Rockcastle County.

 

Fleming isn't winning those games either.

Should be a good one - good enough for me to include in the KOTC contest.

 

Don't let the records fool you. Garrard has played a gauntlet of a schedule for a 3A squad.

If Garrard can get to Crump and/ or defend the pass decent they will win.

As pointed out by a couple people above, a look at strength of schedule tells a different story than just looking at the records. Garrard County can win this game despite the disparity in records.

Fleming isn't Danville or Boyle County, but they've got the talent at QB and WR to put up a lot of points in a hurry. In a game that appears to be as competitive as this one, I'm supporting my district bros in Flemingsburg.

Their stats indicate that the Panthers have a productive passing game. The Golden Lions are not a good defensive team against either the run or the pass. Garrard's most successful effort to limit point production by its opponents this season lies in their own offensive production (i.e. run the ball, move the sticks, keep the clock running, score some points, and don't allow them enough possessions to beat you). Some call it "grind". With that said, it seems to me the keys to the outcome of this good match up will likely be the effectiveness, or lack there of, of the defensive units. Can Fleming limit Garrard's running game? Can Garrard defend Fleming's passing game? IMO the answer to both questions will for the most part be "No". If it makes any sense, I look for a shootout with a collective 70+ points on the board at game's end with one or two key defensive stops or turnovers deciding the outcome. . . . I'm hoping the fact that the Lions have played the tougher schedule helps them pull this one out on the road and punches their ticket for a rematch with LexCath.

Their stats indicate that the Panthers have a productive passing game. The Golden Lions are not a good defensive team against either the run or the pass. Garrard's most successful effort to limit point production by its opponents this season lies in their own offensive production (i.e. run the ball, move the sticks, keep the clock running, score some points, and don't allow them enough possessions to beat you). Some call it "grind". With that said, it seems to me the keys to the outcome of this good match up will likely be the effectiveness, or lack there of, of the defensive units. Can Fleming limit Garrard's running game? Can Garrard defend Fleming's passing game? IMO the answer to both questions will for the most part be "No". If it makes any sense, I look for a shootout with a collective 70+ points on the board at game's end with one or two key defensive stops or turnovers deciding the outcome. . . . I'm hoping the fact that the Lions have played the tougher schedule helps them pull this one out on the road and punches their ticket for a rematch with LexCath.

 

Really strong analysis I think. I have said all along Garrard will be a tough out in the playoffs because their ground game should keep them in the game.

The latest Cantrall ratings (for what it is worth) would indicate Garrard is favored:

 

Garrard County 50.6

Fleming County 44.3

IMO Garrard's running attack will be too much for Fleming.