2017 Kentucky Derby May 6

[doomer]

I picked Classic Empire hoping he will overcome his head troubles. However, it really seems to be wide open. It will most likely come down to post position and how the race plays out (as usual).

[tcjkbt]

Are there any front runners? I haven't started my annual faulty analysis yet but it seems a great majority of the horses this year like to come off the pace from what I've seen so far. Could this Derby be like the NCAA basketball tournament---no great horses? I'm wondering if this crop might be lackluster.

[Wireman]

Im going with Practical Joke.

[Jack of all Trades]

Are there any front runners? I haven't started my annual faulty analysis yet but it seems a great majority of the horses this year like to come off the pace from what I've seen so far. Could this Derby be like the NCAA basketball tournament---no great horses? I'm wondering if this crop might be lackluster.

 

Crop to date is very suspect to say the least. Look for Classic Empire to bounce and bounce big time. No way he has enough stamina from one race and a few workouts.

 

The horse that showed real well in his last race was Irish War Cry. Not real sure he can get the distance however.

 

As usual, this is a jock's race and the post position draw is all that more important. Based upon the forecast from NWO it will be cool, but dry which will give us a lightning fast track.

[doomer]

Post draw at 11AM today.

[doomer]

Kentucky Derby 2017

 

 

Post

 

Horse

 

Jockey

 

Trainer

 

Morning line odds

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Post : 1 Horse : Lookin at Lee Jockey : Corey Lanerie Trainer : Steve Asmussen Morning line odds : 20-1

Post : 2 Horse : Thunder Snow Jockey : Christophe Soumillon Trainer : Saaed bin Suroor Morning line odds : 20-1

Post : 3 Horse : Fast and Accurate Jockey : Channing Hill Trainer : Mike Maker Morning line odds : 50-1

Post : 4 Horse : Untrapped Jockey : Ricardo Santana Jr Trainer : Steve Asmussen Morning line odds : 30-1

Post : 5 Horse : Always Dreaming Jockey : John Velazquez Trainer : Todd Pletcher Morning line odds : 5-1

Post : 6 Horse : State of Honor Jockey : Jose Lezcano Trainer : Mark Casse Morning line odds : 30-1

Post : 7 Horse : Girvin Jockey : Mike Smith Trainer : Joe Sharp Morning line odds : 15-1

Post : 8 Horse : Hence Jockey : Floren Geroux Trainer : Steve Asmussen Morning line odds : 15-1

Post : 9 Horse : Irap Jockey : Mario Gutierrez Trainer : Doug O'Neill Morning line odds : 20-1

Post : 10 Horse : Gunnevera Jockey : Javier Castellano Trainer : Antonio Sano Morning line odds : 15-1

Post : 11 Horse : Battle of Midway Jockey : Flavien Prat Trainer : Jerry Hollendorfer Morning line odds : 30-1

Post : 12 Horse : Sonneteer Jockey : Kent Desormeaux Trainer : Keith Desormeaux Morning line odds : 50-1

Post : 13 Horse : J Boys Echo Jockey : Luis Saez Trainer : Dale Romans Morning line odds : 20-1

Post : 14 Horse : Classic Empire Jockey : Julien Laparoux Trainer : Mark Casse Morning line odds : 4-1

Post : 15 Horse : McCraken Jockey : Brian Hernandez Jr Trainer : Ian Wilkes Morning line odds : 5-1

Post : 16 Horse : Tapwrit Jockey : Jose Ortiz Trainer : Todd Pletcher Morning line odds : 20-1

Post : 17 Horse : Irish War Cry Jockey : Rajiv Maragh Trainer : Graham Motion Morning line odds : 6-1

Post : 18 Horse : Gormley Jockey : Victor Espinoza Trainer : John Shirreffs Morning line odds : 15-1

Post : 19 Horse : Practical Joke Jockey : Joel Rosario Trainer : Chad Brown Morning line odds : 20-1

Post : 20 Horse : Patch Jockey : Tyler Gafflione Trainer : Todd Pletcher Morning line odds : 30-1

[Colonels_Wear_Blue]

One of my wife's good friends (Cov Cath grad) is married to one of the owners of Always Dreaming. Her company, West Point Thoroughbreds, also owns Commanding Curve who finished second in the Derby behind California Chrome three years ago.

 

Gotta admit, it feels really cool having a friend's horse to bet on in the Derby.

 

Awesome....glad to see Always Dreaming got a good draw!

 

[TheDeuce]

Patch, the horse with no left eye, drew the far outside post. Meaning he won't be able to see any of the other horses out of the gate.

[doomer]

Patch, the horse with no left eye, drew the far outside post. Meaning he won't be able to see any of the other horses out of the gate.

 

One of my horses is blind in his left eye. He is at the bottom rung of the hierarchy as well, so he always avoids being exposed on his left side to the other horses. It will be interesting to see if this becomes an issue for Patch. Patch may have to be my sentimental favorite.

[afi100guy]

Went from like to LOVE for Classic Empire with the 14 post.

[frankdracman23]

2017 Kentucky Derby post-position draw and odds (with jockey names)

 

1. Lookin At Lee 20-1 (Lanerie)

 

2. Thunder Snow 20-1 (Soumillon)

 

3. Fast and Accurate 50-1 (Hill)

 

4. Untrapped 30-1 (Santana Jr.)

 

5. Always Dreaming 5-1 (Velazquez)

 

6. State of Honor 30-1 (Lezcano)

 

7. Girvin 15-1 (Smith)

 

8. Hence 15-1 (Geroux)

 

9. Irap 20-1 (Gutierrez)

 

10. Gunnevera 15-1 (Castellano)

 

11. Battle of Midway 30-1 (Prat)

 

12. Sonneteer 50-1 (Desormeaux)

 

13. J Boys Echo 20-1 (Albarado)

 

14. Classic Empire 4-1 (Leparoux)

 

15. McCraken 5-1 (Hernandez Jr.)

 

16. Tapwrit 20-1 (Ortiz)

 

17. Irish War Cry 6-1 (Maragh)

 

18. Gormley 15-1 (Espinoza)

 

19. Practical Joke 20-1 (Rosario)

 

20. Patch 30-1 (Gaffalione)

 

AE: Royal Mo 20/1 (Stevens)

 

AE: Master Plan 50/1 (Velazquez)

[jahearme]

I'm torn between Classic Empire and McCraken for the win column. Always Dreaming and Gormley will have a shot too I think.

I've been reading some about Practical Joke. He might have a chance to hit the board as well.

I will be playing these horses in some form or fashion.

 

I'm very interested in the Oaks race as well. Everyone is talking up the filly from California, Paradise Woods. She ran a huge one her last one out, but I don't see any way she repeats that performance. I really REALLY like Farrell in the Oaks.

[5 STAR]

2017 Kentucky Derby post-position draw and odds (with jockey names)

 

1. Lookin At Lee 20-1 (Lanerie)

 

2. Thunder Snow 20-1 (Soumillon)

 

3. Fast and Accurate 50-1 (Hill)

 

4. Untrapped 30-1 (Santana Jr.)

 

5. Always Dreaming 5-1 (Velazquez)

 

6. State of Honor 30-1 (Lezcano)

 

7. Girvin 15-1 (Smith)

 

8. Hence 15-1 (Geroux)

 

9. Irap 20-1 (Gutierrez)

 

10. Gunnevera 15-1 (Castellano)

 

11. Battle of Midway 30-1 (Prat)

 

12. Sonneteer 50-1 (Desormeaux)

 

13. J Boys Echo 20-1 (Albarado)

 

14. Classic Empire 4-1 (Leparoux)

 

15. McCraken 5-1 (Hernandez Jr.)

 

16. Tapwrit 20-1 (Ortiz)

 

17. Irish War Cry 6-1 (Maragh)

 

18. Gormley 15-1 (Espinoza)

 

19. Practical Joke 20-1 (Rosario)

 

20. Patch 30-1 (Gaffalione)

 

AE: Royal Mo 20/1 (Stevens)

 

AE: Master Plan 50/1 (Velazquez)

 

I thought or heard that the Derby is the only race that there are no AE. If there are two horses scratched they leave the one hole open and the 20 hole open. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong. They were saying how unfair it is to the horses that just missed the cut off.

[5 STAR]

Is that Irad or Jose riding the 16?

[Jack of all Trades]

I thought or heard that the Derby is the only race that there are no AE. If there are two horses scratched they leave the one hole open and the 20 hole open. I'm sure someone will correct me if I'm wrong. They were saying how unfair it is to the horses that just missed the cut off.

 

I believe that if a horse scratches by sometime on Friday, then the first AE can enter the field and if two such horses do this then both can get in. If field is reduced to 19, then yes they leave the one hole open.

 

I believe that is Jose Ortiz