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Kentucky / UCLA (Sweet 16) Predictions


HammerTime

Who wins?  

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  1. 1. Who wins?



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Here's my bold prediction:

 

 

Whoever wins this game wins by more than 12 points

 

I can see it going either way on this..

- UCLA has a tendency to turn it over freely and the UK Defensive intensity is going to be vastly different from the first game. UK hasn't had the chance to get out and run since conference play started, with opportunities for transition can UK return to early season form?

 

- UCLA is a matchup nightmare for UK. The only starting 5 dare I say more talented than Kentucky and the ability to force you to spread the court. Teams who have hurt UK the most are teams who attack and get to the rim and have enough size to follow misses. Throw in the ability for UCLA to get red hot from 3 once Kentucky starts to drop back help and it's a recipe for UCLA to abuse a Kentucky team that sometimes has issues finding points.

 

- The one Kentucky player that UCLA has no answer for is Bam Adebayo. Bam was in a slump the first game and din't know how to avoid fouls. Outside of Arizona, noone in the Pac 10 has a big that can score and dominate the boards like Bam, and even then the Arizona bigs were anywhere as physical. UCLA isn't an elite defensive team as it is so if Bam starts demanding double teams the entire perimeter opens up.

 

- With that said, the only player that UK has no answer for is Bam Adebayo. UCLA has three very good front court players and if Bam gets caught having to help a lot that could mean a lot of fouls. No Bam, no advantage, and UCLA will feast on Kentucky with Bam on the bench.

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They way the tourney has been called so far seems to be very loose, UK's guards can't fall into the same trap they have in past tourneys of hoping to get bailed out by a foul on a drive. They need to finish strong and make buckets and if they get the call hit the FT. Watching several games the last two weeks officials don't seem to be calling touch fouls on drives, hopefully our guards adjust tonight.

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