Here's the key part of the Economist/YouGov poll to me:

 

 

Trump is leading their poll, but respondents overwhelmingly think Bush is going to win. Now, if Trump were leading their poll and most people also thought he was going to win we'd have something bigger.

Kind of reminds you of Rick Perry in 2008: got a lot of press a year before the election, but slid away as the primary season began.

 

Someone on here said it earlier at least Trump is going down Hard!

Kind of reminds you of Rick Perry in 2008: got a lot of press a year before the election, but slid away as the primary season began.

 

Someone on here said it earlier at least Trump is going down Hard!

 

Good analogy.

... Trump is leading their poll, but respondents overwhelmingly think Bush is going to win. Now, if Trump were leading their poll and most people also thought he was going to win we'd have something bigger.

The key part of the story for me was the following sentence:

 

"Two-thirds of those who said Trump was either their first or second choice also said that they are tea party supporters, and several of his supporters identified as "very conservative," which means that Trump's recent comments on immigration may be hitting a nerve."

 

In other words, Trump is really connecting with the far right. And as we know, the Tea Party often decides primaries.

 

If Trump is "going down" anytime soon, I've yet to see evidence of such.

Yeah the Tea Party decides primaries....That's why Mitt Romney was the nominee last election... Give it up already. As much as you want it to happen, pretty much everyone with a brain knows Trump has no real chance at the nomination.

Yeah the Tea Party decides primaries....That's why Mitt Romney was the nominee last election... Give it up already. As much as you want it to happen, pretty much everyone with a brain knows Trump has no real chance at the nomination.

The Tea Party was responsible for electing Todd "Legitimate Rape" Akin and Christine "I Am Not a Witch" O'Donnell. Yes, those were Senate primaries. Still, it appears -- much to the distress of establishment Republicans (story in Washington Post today) -- Donald Trump ain't going away anytime soon. And the longer his face appears on the nightly news, the longer he's going to hurt the GOP "brand."

In other words, Trump is really connecting with the far right.

 

I don't doubt that's what's going on. But the "Tea Party" candidates played musical chairs in 2012 and none of them seriously threatened the nomination. There's a difference between a braggart people are happy to cheer for and someone who will carry the party's mantle and it would seem when the feet are to the fire voters don't want them to be the same person.

 

I'll wager Trump's support will fall off after this first debate or soon after and another will take his place as the outlet for the party's ire. He'll call Bush or someone else "very stupid" or "naive" on stage, they'll have a quick retort, Trump will be left fumbling around without much of anything to say and that will be that. He'll eventually drop out, allege some kind of conspiracy against him, threaten a third-party run, then go back to building golf courses.

I don't doubt that's what's going on. But the "Tea Party" candidates played musical chairs in 2012 and none of them seriously threatened the nomination. There's a difference between a braggart people are happy to cheer for and someone who will carry the party's mantle and it would seem when the feet are to the fire voters don't want them to be the same person.

 

I'll wager Trump's support will fall off after this first debate or soon after and another will take his place as the outlet for the party's ire. He'll call Bush or someone else "very stupid" or "naive" on stage, they'll have a quick retort, Trump will be left fumbling around without much of anything to say and that will be that. He'll eventually drop out, allege some kind of conspiracy against him, threaten a third-party run, then go back to building golf courses.

Your analysis may prove correct. Regardless, Trump has the GOP's king-makers worried -- not about him winning the nomination, but about collateral damage. Reince Priebus didn't spend 45 minutes on the phone with him the other day talking golf.

 

 

GOP leaders fear damage to party?s image as Donald Trump doubles down - The Washington Post

Your analysis may prove correct. Regardless, Trump has the GOP's king-makers worried -- not about him winning the nomination, but about collateral damage. Reince Priebus didn't spend 45 minutes on the phone with him the other day talking golf.

 

 

GOP leaders fear damage to party?s image as Donald Trump doubles down - The Washington Post

The more "damage', the better. The establishment is getting their feathers ruffled, and that is a GOOD thing.

One thing going for Trump, it's unlikely the public will be surprised by a Trump scandal. Unlike all other candidates, his dirty laundry has been out there for decades.

I don't doubt that's what's going on. But the "Tea Party" candidates played musical chairs in 2012 and none of them seriously threatened the nomination. There's a difference between a braggart people are happy to cheer for and someone who will carry the party's mantle and it would seem when the feet are to the fire voters don't want them to be the same person.

 

I'll wager Trump's support will fall off after this first debate or soon after and another will take his place as the outlet for the party's ire. He'll call Bush or someone else "very stupid" or "naive" on stage, they'll have a quick retort, Trump will be left fumbling around without much of anything to say and that will be that. He'll eventually drop out, allege some kind of conspiracy against him, threaten a third-party run, then go back to building golf courses.

 

Nailed all of it.

What would really be funny is if Trump wins enough delegates to prevent Jeb from winning on the first ballot.

Nailed all of it.

 

Habib is a habitual mic dropper.

I agree with a lot of what you guys are predicting about Trump.

 

But......

 

When he gets on the debate stage he will make the others very nervous about what he might say. You can dog Trump all you want but the bottom line is, he will force the other canidates to talk about things they clearly don't want to.

 

Many americans are tired of status quo and it has nothing to do with political parties.

Who would Trump pick as his VP running mate?

 

He'll probably create a new reality show. Same way he hires his apprentices.