June 9, 201511 yr Getting more than 20% of the black vote can be done by republicans. They just have to care enough to try. Blacks aren't as stupid as some republicans think they are. The numbers are stacked against the GOP. Here's a paragraph I pulled from a story last week. It shows how hard it's getting for Republicans to win presidential elections: "If the 2016 GOP nominee gets no better than Romney’s 17 percent of the nonwhite vote, he or she would need 65 percent of the white vote to win, a level achieved in modern times only by Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide. George W. Bush’s 2004 winning formula — 26 percent of the nonwhite vote and 58 percent of the white vote — would be a losing formula in 2016, given population changes."
June 9, 201511 yr Nothing to do with being smart or stupid...just stating facts. Question (because I don't know the answer)...when was the last time a Republican presidential candidate got more than 20% of the vote? I am curious. No clue.
June 9, 201511 yr Author The numbers are stacked against the GOP. Here's a paragraph I pulled from a story last week. It shows how hard it's getting for Republicans to win presidential elections: "If the 2016 GOP nominee gets no better than Romney’s 17 percent of the nonwhite vote, he or she would need 65 percent of the white vote to win, a level achieved in modern times only by Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide. George W. Bush’s 2004 winning formula — 26 percent of the nonwhite vote and 58 percent of the white vote — would be a losing formula in 2016, given population changes." Again - should the GOP "give up" on the black vote - not that they've really tried all that hard - and focus on the Hispanic population?
June 9, 201511 yr Again - should the GOP "give up" on the black vote - not that they've really tried all that hard - and focus on the Hispanic population? Hispanics went for Obama 71-27 in '12. Of the 31 Hispanic members of Congress, 24 are Democrats -- 77 percent. Looks to me like the 70 percent Democratic Hispanic figure is fairly solid and isn't going to start cracking until the Republicans soften their immigration stance.
June 9, 201511 yr Hispanics went for Obama 71-27 in '12. Of the 31 Hispanic members of Congress, 24 are Democrats -- 77 percent. Looks to me like the 70 percent Democratic Hispanic figure is fairly solid and isn't going to start cracking until the Republicans soften their immigration stance. So....they should soften their stance to get votes.
June 9, 201511 yr So....they should soften their stance to get votes. Let me put it this way: There's a reason for the 70-30 Hispanic tilt toward the Dems. It's a matter of party platform, not style. For Republicans to say they're going to focus on garnering more Hispanic votes while moving further to the right on immigration reform, funding education, tax breaks for the wealthy, etc. ... well, that just makes no sense.
June 9, 201511 yr Hispanics went for Obama 71-27 in '12. Of the 31 Hispanic members of Congress, 24 are Democrats -- 77 percent. Looks to me like the 70 percent Democratic Hispanic figure is fairly solid and isn't going to start cracking until the Republicans soften their immigration stance. The irony. Hispanics are largely socially conservative, at a higher rate than black Americans. I suspect the best thing for the Republicans' long term electability would be to lead comprehensive immigration reform and allow everyone who is already here to stay here (unless they are criminals). Now can the Republicans go against much of their base and perhaps their own beliefs? Or will they stick to their guns and continue to lose Presidential elections?
June 9, 201511 yr Author The irony. Hispanics are largely socially conservative, at a higher rate than black Americans. I suspect the best thing for the Republicans' long term electability would be to lead comprehensive immigration reform and allow everyone who is already here to stay here (unless they are criminals). Now can the Republicans go against much of their base and perhaps their own beliefs? Or will they stick to their guns and continue to lose Presidential elections? I think that this take is spot on.
June 9, 201511 yr I don't want politicians that pander. If they believe in something fine but we've had too many politicians who have no core beliefs and will go with what the polls tell them to do and look where that's put us. Reagan received no material boost after his amnesty program anyway. 25% is about all the R's will get from the Hispanic block and about 10% from the black vote.
June 9, 201511 yr The irony. Hispanics are largely socially conservative, at a higher rate than black Americans. I suspect the best thing for the Republicans' long term electability would be to lead comprehensive immigration reform and allow everyone who is already here to stay here (unless they are criminals). Now can the Republicans go against much of their base and perhaps their own beliefs? Or will they stick to their guns and continue to lose Presidential elections? More irony. People would be surprised at how socially conservative blacks are as well. Especially when it comes to gay marriage, praying in schools, abortion and believe it or not...welfare. Too bad nobody is listening.
June 9, 201511 yr More irony. People would be surprised at how socially conservative blacks are as well. Especially when it comes to gay marriage, praying in schools, abortion and believe it or not...welfare. Too bad nobody is listening. PP92 tell me if you agree or not but given the history here for black Americans the issue really comes down to trust more than anything else. Many of my black friends/acquaintences throughout life have been socially conservative but really wouldn't look to vote for a Republican candidate who agrees with social conservatism. But even if they agree, do black Americans feel like they can trust Republicans in general? I'd guess no. (this is a 47 yr old white guy saying this so take it with the appropriate amount of skepticism)...I would guess that a large segment of the black community feels like they're stuck in the middle. Can't trust the standard Republican candidate, but what have the Democrats really done for black folks when they've been in charge? Blacks Americans are still behind in education, wages, health, etc. If you look at the stats since Obama has been President all of those things have gotten worse for the black community, not better. But even with that lack of measurable improvement by even a black President, the black community still trusts Dems more. At least that's my belief (speaking on behalf of the entire white American community, lol). I don't see that changing any time soon.
June 9, 201511 yr PP92 tell me if you agree or not but given the history here for black Americans the issue really comes down to trust more than anything else. Many of my black friends/acquaintences throughout life have been socially conservative but really wouldn't look to vote for a Republican candidate who agrees with social conservatism. But even if they agree, do black Americans feel like they can trust Republicans in general? I'd guess no. (this is a 47 yr old white guy saying this so take it with the appropriate amount of skepticism)...I would guess that a large segment of the black community feels like they're stuck in the middle. Can't trust the standard Republican candidate, but what have the Democrats really done for black folks when they've been in charge? Blacks Americans are still behind in education, wages, health, etc. If you look at the stats since Obama has been President all of those things have gotten worse for the black community, not better. But even with that lack of measurable improvement by even a black President, the black community still trusts Dems more. At least that's my belief (speaking on behalf of the entire white American community, lol). I don't see that changing any time soon. I don't see it changing anytime soon either. I do think Rand Paul is heading in the rig direction though.
June 9, 201511 yr I think Rand Paul has made legit strides. Some people on left not all but some are afraid of his outreach because he is taking fiscal conservative policy's to the minority communities. If I were a political hack without emotion I would say winning over the African American vote really isn't important. The Hispanic vote is what matter. With white middle class Americans flocking to the Republican party they can make make up the black vote. But you have to gain ground with Hispanics. That is why Marc Rubio has been hit a lot lately by NY Times. He is that bridge for GOP if he doesn't win the nomination he will be the VP on the ticket. What prominent Hispanic in the Dem party would matter on Hillary's ticket ? The key is Hispanic vote and I don't buy the if you don't support the Democrat immigration policy you can't win them. Most Hispanics are 2nd or greater generation Americans , not recently immigrated. You just need to appeal.
June 9, 201511 yr The reason the Republicans don't shrink the size of government when they have a chance is because Republicans don't want to mess up their straw-man targets, i.e., size of government, abortion, protection of marriage, and the latest one -- religious freedom. These issues keep the base fired up and voting. Speaking of entitlements, it's good to see that the Tea Party is setting its sights on corporate welfare. Very, very insightful post! 100% truth.
June 10, 201511 yr Maybe we need a thread to see if the democrat party can ever make inroads with White voters ever again?
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