Pretty spot on, IMO.

 

You're sandbagging :lol2:

You're sandbagging :lol2:

 

I'm really not. UK is a terrible match up for the Cards. Too much size on the inside, and big guards to boot. Too much has to go right for Louisville to win. If UK takes care of the ball and rebounds like they normally do, they win easily.

You're sandbagging :lol2:

 

No way. This game is Kentucky's to lose. Louisville's going to have to put together far and away its best game of the season to pull this one off. Undersized in both front- and backcourt, Louisville's not only going to have to make shots, but find a way to keep the much bigger UK players out of the lane.

 

Not an easy task. The two losses to Memphis weren't flukes. Louisville struggles with really tall teams and excels against shorter ones. It's how Louisville blew out UConn but really failed with Memphis, UK and UNC.

Wow, no wonder Louisville had no issues when the salt ran out this winter, there seems to be an abundance of sand.

There's certainly a very good chance. I wish I knew more about Michigan. They're certainly a very good team but I don't know that these two haven't been playing better in recent weeks.

 

Michigan scares me as a UK fan, as I think they are an awful matchup for the Cats. They have length at every position just like Kentucky, have a bunch of shooters, and have a couple of big guys that can bang down low. Plus they play that quirky 1-3-1 defense that I'm sure none of these young Wildcats have seen before.

 

I have a real good buddy at work, whose a huge Michigan fan. He's worried about Tennessee this weekend and then said he's more worried about facing UK than anyone.

Did I see right that as of yesterday Louisville was a 4.5 - 5.5 favorite? I'm biased but I think that will shrink quite a bit before Friday, if not completely.

After reading some of these post I'm left wondering how Louisville ever won a game this season.

Like I said at the beginning of the year: most talent anywhere and UK should win the whole thing. No excuse for them not to.

 

Vegas favors UL.

 

UL is the defending champ & 6 of the 9 players who played in last year's championship game will play in this game.

 

UK is the defending NIT first round loss to Robert Morris champions & only 2 starters are back from that terrible team.

 

As my fellow optimist LRCW pointed out, Rick Pitino has never ever ever ever ever ever ever ever lost a Sweet 16 matchup. Ever ever.

 

UK is winless in Sweet 16 games played after 9:00 on a Friday when the opponent is an in-state school.

 

Louisville is closer to Indy than Lexington is, so this will essentially be a home game for the Cards.

 

Friday night will be the 22 year anniversary of the UK/Duke game when Laettner hit the shot. That will stifle any momentum that Cats might have otherwise brought into this game.

 

In its 109 year history, UK has only won 1 game on March 28th. Think about that: 109 years of basketball & just 1 stinking win on March 28th. And they had to go to Overtime to win that game against Stanford--a Stanford program that has lost a whopping 1,137 games in its history. SMH

 

Since 2000, there has only been 1 time when UK played a 4-seed in the NCAA Tournament & UK was seeded lower than the 4-seed. UK lost that game, scoring a measly 50 points. That loss came against a team that just last year was in the Big East but is now in a new conference. Coincidence? I think not.

 

The last time UK scored exactly 78 points in an NCAA Tournament game (Utah 1998), the next time they played UL they lost (Dec. 26th, 1999). Talk about your disturbing trends.

 

 

 

In short: Historical data + Current analysis = Obvious UL victory.

Did I see right that as of yesterday Louisville was a 4.5 - 5.5 favorite? I'm biased but I think that will shrink quite a bit before Friday, if not completely.

 

5.5, spent the weekend in Vegas so I can confirm

This is not sandbagging. If Wichita St had beaten UK, I would like Louisville's chances of repeating, but Kentucky is just a terrible matchup for Louisville. Unless Mathiang suddenly levels up into Gorgui Dieng Junior, I just don't see it.

I agree about the matchup issues but Louisville does have some advantages

This is not sandbagging. If Wichita St had beaten UK, I would like Louisville's chances of repeating, but Kentucky is just a terrible matchup for Louisville. Unless Mathiang suddenly levels up into Gorgui Dieng Junior, I just don't see it.

 

I think it was Jeff Goodman who tweeted out that after the game back in December numerous Louisville players basically said that Kentucky is just an awful matchup for them.

 

And while I agree, you can never know in rivalry games or games coached by Pitino. Should be a hell of a game IMO.

So now we're sand bagging because we're pointing out areas where UK has a distinct advantage... :lol2:

 

If we were all saying that Randle, WCS, and Dakari sucked, this thread would be 5 pages by now and we'd have bowls of crow lined up for weeks after the game.

So now we're sand bagging because we're pointing out areas where UK has a distinct advantage... :lol2:

 

If we were all saying that Randle, WCS, and Dakari sucked, this thread would be 5 pages by now and we'd have bowls of crow lined up for weeks after the game.

Come on now Deuce, just a week ago there was tremendous angst that UofL was hosed by the committee, should have been a 2, perhaps a 1. Pitino said they were playing better than anyone in the country. Now an unranked opponent is a bad matchup?

Come on now Deuce, just a week ago there was tremendous angst that UofL was hosed by the committee, should have been a 2, perhaps a 1. Pitino said they were playing better than anyone in the country. Now an unranked opponent is a bad matchup?

 

That's the beauty of college basketball, and specifically the tournament. It's all about matchups. Hell, Arkansas and LSU were awful matchups for Kentucky, who was clearly better than both.