Winners and Losers of State Tournament Draw

[kyhssports]

Took the liberty of predicting some regional winners in my analysis.

 

Winners

1) Rowan County (16th Region)

The Vikings will have a fairly easy road to get back to the state semifinals as they seek another championship berth. Harlan County is playing extremely well in the 13th region, but they are nowhere near a top ten team. With Sweet 16 experience and the dynamic duo of Townsend and Wing, I’d be surprised to see the Vikings get knocked out early…that is if they get to Lexington of course.

 

2) Madison Central/Scott County (11th Region)

The winner of the 11th region, likely to be either the Cardinals of Scott County or the state’s lone undefeated team Madison Central, would avoid a Louisville team until the championship AND likely have to play only one top ten team, if that many. Your 14th region champion, either Perry County Central or Knott County Central, would serve as a tough test in the semifinals.

 

3) The Rupp Arena Crowd on Wednesday Night

It’s certainly not want Louisville teams wanted, but a matchup between a Trinity and a Bullitt East, or a Ballard or a Moore, or heck even a Jeffersontown and a Manual will be the highlight of the first round. Both teams that play in that contest will be good enough to win the state championship, and I’d say the winner will be the favorite to win it all from there. Plus, a likely appearance from nearby George Rogers Clark in the late game will keep Rupp Arena packed through the night.

 

Losers

1) Trinity/Ballard/Manual/Bullitt East/Moore/PRP/Jeffersontown (6th & 7th Region)

While in a perfect world we’d have the winners of the 6th and 7th region meet in the state finals every year (sarcasm), we don’t have that as the draw produces a top-heavy first round matchup. Fortunately for the winner, they will get a day off before the quarterfinals, but the team that would likely await — GRC — is no picnic. Add an experienced and hungry Rowan County to the semifinal game, and the road to Saturday night is a tough one for the Louisville teams.

 

2) Marshall County (1st Region)

Their one loss came to Montgomery County on the Indians’ home court. Ever since that loss, and throughout the rest of the season, the Marshals have been outstanding and dominant. They have not lost to a team west of I-65, and their impressive record would make them a darkhorse pick at Rupp. But a matchup with the 11th region champ right off the bat is a tough break.

 

3) Legitimacy of the State Tournament

Honestly though, how fair is it that FIVE of my top seven teams in the most recent state rankings will be guaranteed to be out of the state tournament by Thursday night? I understand and LOVE the fact that this is a true STATE tournament and all teams get a shot, but with the blind draw system as we have currently, there will be more and more people that will say the LIT or the KOB or the Republic Bank are better tournaments than the state tournament. That shouldn’t happen. The state tournament should be a celebration of the best TEAMS (not necessarily talent but sometimes they are one in the same) in the state, and I’m not sure a blind draw is the best system to get the best celebration.

[gold sunrise]

Good stuff as always.

[LCDAWGS19]

Good stuff as always.

 

I'd agree. Solid work as always.

[LCDAWGS19]

The state tournament should be a celebration of the best TEAMS (not necessarily talent but sometimes they are one in the same) in the state, and I’m not sure a blind draw is the best system to get the best celebration.

 

I'm assuming you would want to seed the teams in some fashion? How so. Do we do a BCS style rating system by using the Cantrall and Litkenhaus ratings, as well as the AP Poll? Maybe add a coaches poll to balance out human/computer. These are just my thoughts.

[PurplePride92]

I'm assuming you would want to seed the teams in some fashion? How so. Do we do a BCS style rating system by using the Cantrall and Litkenhaus ratings, as well as the AP Poll? Maybe add a coaches poll to balance out human/computer. These are just my thoughts.

 

 

Seed the 16 teams with a BCS type formula using AP Poll, Cantrall, Litkenhous, BGP and a coaches poll and have at it.

[PurplePride92]

No doubt. Good stuff.

[rockmom]

Some interesting quotes from Louisville coaches.

[bulldog77]

Some interesting quotes from Louisville coaches.

 

Someone might want to mention to coach Mabrey that there ARE fans of high school basketball outside of Louisville. And the state tournament does not now, nor has it ever revolved around the 6th and 7th Regions.

[tcjkbt]

Has the head of the KHSAA ever been from Jefferson County or Northern Kentucky? -----Just asking---don't know.

[jeremy41056]

We don't need to change a thing. The blind draw is what makes Kentucky's Sweet 16 what it is. It's about the small town, Cinderella teams. They make the tournament, and seeding them all out in the first round would be a disgrace.

[MNCM]

This is great stuff. Keep it coming as often as you can. While the tournament draw isn't perfect, it isn't that bad either.

[Lawnboy13]

I'm assuming you would want to seed the teams in some fashion? How so. Do we do a BCS style rating system by using the Cantrall and Litkenhaus ratings, as well as the AP Poll? Maybe add a coaches poll to balance out human/computer. These are just my thoughts.

 

I take monkeys throwing darts before these two.:lol:

[stepscalled]

Im a huge fan of the way it is. When you start talking about rankings, there isnt anyone who can cover the entire state and rank accordingly. Take Christian Co, from last year. Would they have been given a 1 seed? Rowan Co. a 2 seed? When you say you want it seeded, then you have to accept classing basketball. You are stating that you want it fair, make it fair for the small schools also. That means class system. Otherwise, like the way it is. Thats what makes it special.

[JokersWild24]

Like the Sweet 16 the way it is. I'm an alumnus of a school that went three times in four years. Two years it was a brutal draw for us, the third it was a good one. Just the way it works sometimes. I don't like the seeding arguments though, too much subjectivity to the process. People don't cover from Marshall County to Rowan County in the same year, and preseason rankings would influence the rankings for the remainder of the year.

[dd734]

A BCS system isn't going to work in high school basketball. Teams with the most money that can travel and compete, and play the best in and out of state teams will get the votes. Someone will always have a better route to the tournament. It happens in the BCS system as well. I don't know that there is a perfect system. I like the one we have, not perfect, but IMO it's the best way to go.