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Kentucky, NCAA tournament


dolamite
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I think Kentucky will play a lot better on neutral sites, sites in which will have more blue in the stands than anything else more than likely. They are a good team, just cannot execute on the road when it matters, much better looking team at home.

 

 

BUT, what I'm thinking is Kentucky now puts itself in a position where they are looking at a 5 seed in the tournament and that is a little scary. Would be a lot better if they could nab a 3 seed but right now that looks very much unlikely.

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They'll be lucky to get a 5 seed. 9-7 in conference won't (or at least shouldn't) warrant them a 5 seed. I'm starting to think more like a 6, maybe a 7 if they drop any of the remaining 4 homes games (highly unlikely).

 

 

This team can't win away from Rupp. They have so much talent, but zero intensity.

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Well the good thing is UK has already played most of their road games in conference now. So they will be playing at home a lot the rest of the way, and then the SEC Tournament. So I do think UK can very well play theirselves back up to a 3 seed as long as they take business at home, and make a run in the SEC tournament.

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I think the Cats will finish 10-6 in the standings, the big question is if that will be enough to finish 2nd in the East. If they can finish 2nd in the East I think they can win the SEC tournament, and get a 4 seed. I think the neutral sites will be enough of a point swing to let them win these close games they've been losing.

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They'll be lucky to get a 5 seed. 9-7 in conference won't (or at least shouldn't) warrant them a 5 seed. I'm starting to think more like a 6, maybe a 7 if they drop any of the remaining 4 homes games (highly unlikely).

 

 

This team can't win away from Rupp. They have so much talent, but zero intensity.

 

UK will be no lower than a 5 seed.

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Let me start by stating that we are "light years" from where we were two years ago.

 

That said, I do not see this team making any sort of run in the NCAA tourney. Here's why I don't think they can:

 

1) No depth. None. Right now, other than the big 6, the next player I'm most comfortable seeing is Polson. NO ONE can win with the drop off from player 7 down that UK has. It will be even more evident in the tourney IMO.

Someone stated that this is a very talented team. No, only the top 3 are really talented, the next 2 are talented (maybe just 1 depending upon which Miller shows up) and the drop off after that is :scared:

 

2) Inexperience. I'm not knocking the system of getting the best players out there, even if they are 1 and done. Truth is I don't think many thought Bledsoe was gone until the season was over and No One really saw Orton gone. If Orton were back this team would only have a few losses.

 

3) No Enes. I think the whole season was set to swing on the NCAA decision. If he joins this team we are suddenly a contender based on His Talent and the place on the floor his talent resides. It's reduced us to band-aiding the lineup and an NCAA contender really can't do that every game in the tourney.

 

4) Last year's team had more talent depth but more than that, they could be a defensive juggernaut when summoned upon (especially when they weren't shooting well). Last year's team was also so much faster from top to bottom. Cal's style hurts when there is so much disparity between player 4 and the rest.

 

Just my 2 cents but there is nothing in the resume that shows this team capable of making a big run in the tourney. When we start throwing out reasons such as: "neutral court we will bring more fans and give it a more home court feel that will swing points" or "if we get the right seed" - then you really don't have a good reason/chance on going far.

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Let me start by stating that we are "light years" from where we were two years ago.

 

That said, I do not see this team making any sort of run in the NCAA tourney. Here's why I don't think they can:

 

1) No depth. None. Right now, other than the big 6, the next player I'm most comfortable seeing is Polson. NO ONE can win with the drop off from player 7 down that UK has. It will be even more evident in the tourney IMO.

Someone stated that this is a very talented team. No, only the top 3 are really talented, the next 2 are talented (maybe just 1 depending upon which Miller shows up) and the drop off after that is :scared:

 

2) Inexperience. I'm not knocking the system of getting the best players out there, even if they are 1 and done. Truth is I don't think many thought Bledsoe was gone until the season was over and No One really saw Orton gone. If Orton were back this team would only have a few losses.

 

3) No Enes. I think the whole season was set to swing on the NCAA decision. If he joins this team we are suddenly a contender based on His Talent and the place on the floor his talent resides. It's reduced us to band-aiding the lineup and an NCAA contender really can't do that every game in the tourney.

 

4) Last year's team had more talent depth but more than that, they could be a defensive juggernaut when summoned upon (especially when they weren't shooting well). Last year's team was also so much faster from top to bottom. Cal's style hurts when there is so much disparity between player 4 and the rest.

 

Just my 2 cents but there is nothing in the resume that shows this team capable of making a big run in the tourney. When we start throwing out reasons such as: "neutral court we will bring more fans and give it a more home court feel that will swing points" or "if we get the right seed" - then you really don't have a good reason/chance on going far.

 

 

That is a very good assessment, but I think another huge difference between this year and last year is that I think the level of play is down all through college basketball this year. I think there were more really good teams last year than there are this year. I believe that gives the Cats a better chance of advancing to possibly the Elite 8 this year depending on the draw.

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That is a very good assessment, but I think another huge difference between this year and last year is that I think the level of play is down all through college basketball this year. I think there were more really good teams last year than there are this year. I believe that gives the Cats a better chance of advancing to possibly the Elite 8 this year depending on the draw.

 

Appreciate the comments. My only problem is that when we start talking "it depends upon the seed" that we kind of see the answer. While level of play is down, I have yet to see anything on the floor out of this good KY team that suggests they are ready to battle the elite 10 or so who have at least shown their wares on the court (whether the overall pool is down or not). Does that make sense? Elite 8 would be the luckiest and best of all worlds IMO for this squad. I don't think they've under achieved, they just are who they are.

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They'll be lucky to get a 5 seed. 9-7 in conference won't (or at least shouldn't) warrant them a 5 seed. I'm starting to think more like a 6, maybe a 7 if they drop any of the remaining 4 homes games (highly unlikely).

 

 

This team can't win away from Rupp. They have so much talent, but zero intensity.

 

We do not want a 4 or 5 seed, if you cannot get a 3 seed you are better off getting a 6 seed. This keeps you away from the 1 seed. 6 Seed plays 11 and if they win then play a 3 seed. That keeps you away from a dominant 1 seed until the Regional Finals.

 

Will be a 3-4 seed. RPI will help them and their late schedule. Elite 8.
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