July 30, 200719 yr Maybe that's as big of numbers as Howard will ever put up. Projections for this year are not too far off. These are the projections for this year. Dunn: 40 HR Howard: 43 HR Dunn: 105 RBI Howard: 129 RBI Dunn: .260 BA Howard: .273 BA Dunn: 96 Runs Scored Howard: 87 Runs Scored Howard has ground into more double plays, barely, walks and strike outs are almost identical. All in all, Dunn is pretty comparable to Mr. Howard. And if you think that the Phillies are going to dump him when his contract is up you're crazy. He'll make as much, if not more, than Dunn will. We agree on most points concerning Howard. No where have I said Phillies dump him. Has Howard been healthy all season? For some reason I was under the impression he had some kind of physical issue this year.
July 30, 200719 yr It's throwing away money to extend him before arbitration... You know as well as I do that the only way to win through arbitration is if a guy has #'s that don't compare favorably to his peers in his position. Will arbitration be the right route if he goes .300/35HR/100RBI/110Runs/30SB and wins a gold glove? Currently Utley and Uggla are the only offensive 2B in NL with better #'s if I'm not mistaken and they're not far off. The smarter move is to offer him a solid contract with some security if they truly believe he's a staple in this organization for years to come IMO.
July 30, 200719 yr You know as well as I do that the only way to win through arbitration is if a guy has #'s that don't compare favorably to his peers in his position. Will arbitration be the right route if he goes .300/35HR/100RBI/110Runs/30SB and wins a gold glove? Currently Utley and Uggla are the only offensive 2B in NL with better #'s if I'm not mistaken and they're not far off. The smarter move is to offer him a solid contract with some security if they truly believe he's a staple in this organization for years to come IMO. You extend him right before arbitration, not the year before...
July 30, 200719 yr Lonnie Wheeler with the other side of the story. To the old-school purist who views the game with a reverence for the subtle and situational, he is a power-hitting eyesore. To the new-school numbers-cruncher who measures the sport with clusters of capital letters (OPS, RC, VORP, ETC.), the Reds' left fielder is a sabermetric superstar. It comes down, basically, to whether you trust your instincts or your slide rule, with shades of interpretation complicating both accounts. Dunn's corner would argue that the big fellow's homers and on-base percentage (greatly abetted by his penchant for bases on balls) produce quantities of runs, driven in and scored, that simply cannot be dismissed or easily replaced, and that those impressive totals clearly dwarf any deficiencies he may demonstrate in the outfield. The other side would counter that the former quarterback is not paid an eight-figure salary to leave runners on base or let somebody else knock them in; that if a strikeout is no different than any other kind of out, why is such a premium placed on relief pitchers who can pile them up?; that, by falling short on the finer points, Dunn fails to make his teammates better, or even as useful as they might be; that his M.O. is the very antithesis of what works so well for, say, the Los Angeles Angels; that, because his nature is simply not hell-for-leather, he does little in the way of leading or inspiring his ballclub; that the long-ball approach has not served the Reds well in his seven Cincinnati seasons, each of which has been a losing one. http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070730/SPT05/707300330/1035/SPT
July 30, 200719 yr More from Mr. Wheeler... With all respect to what Mackanin has accomplished, and to whoever the manager might be next year, the Reds still require a chemical change of the purposeful sort. The only way to effect that change is by swapping out Dunn or Ken Griffey Jr. (who calls up a whole different set of nuances), provided that the players arriving in return, and those acquired with the money salvaged, are capable of contributing significantly toward a pennant drive in 2008.
July 30, 200719 yr You extend him right before arbitration, not the year before... And if he has a season next year like I stated above, the Reds will rent him for more money than if they extend him now, and then shortly thereafter he'll be a Yankee, an Angel, a Blue Jay, whatever. Your assumption, if that is what truly happens, is just another dent in the machine that is the Reds management. If you establish that a younger guy like Phillips is someone you want long term to add other young guys to so that you can build a quality club for seasons not yet lost, the "let's $ee how we do in arbitration" route is another path that leads us to mediocrity IMHO.
July 31, 200719 yr According to STATS, Inc's "Zone Rating" that ranks players in the Major Leagues defensively at their position: Adam Dunn is the 10th best Defensive Left-fielder in the Major Leagues. He cleanly fields 83.9 percent of the balls that land (or would land) in the "typical defensive zone" of left field. The only other Red to make the Top 10 defensive players at their position is Scott Hatteberg who equates out to the 5th best defensive first-baseman in the major leagues. Brandon Phillips isn't in the Top 10 at secondbase. Nor is Alex Gonzalez at SS. Nor is Ken Griffey, Jr in RF. Not saying I agree or disagree, just giving you the cold hard facts. This information is available in today's USA Today, page 6C.
July 31, 200719 yr For the record, the best players defensively at each position, according to STATS, inc: 1B -- Casey Kotchman 2B -- Mark Ellis 3B -- Pedro Feliz SS -- Omar Vizquel LF -- Carl Crawford CF -- Grady Sizemore RF -- Shane Victorino Easy to dismiss until you look at that list and realize that it seems to be pretty accurate around the diamond.
July 31, 200719 yr According to STATS, Inc's "Zone Rating" that ranks players in the Major Leagues defensively at their position: Adam Dunn is the 10th best Defensive Left-fielder in the Major Leagues. He cleanly fields .839 percent of the balls that land (or would land) in the "typical defensive zone" of left field. The only other Red to make the Top 10 defensive players at their position is Scott Hatteberg who equates out to the 5th best defensive first-baseman in the major leagues. Brandon Phillips isn't in the Top 10 at secondbase. Nor is Alex Gonzalez at SS. Nor is Ken Griffey, Jr in RF. Not saying I agree or disagree, just giving you the cold hard facts. This information is available in today's USA Today, page 6C. Just another mind-numbing stat that doesn't make much sense when you can easily discern who can and cannot play defense by simply watching the game. Think of this, he "cleanly fields" 84 out of 100. Not to mention "typical defensive zone". Too much room for opinion to make that statistic worth anything. Perhaps just watching them play the game is no longer enough! BTW, this round of Dunn homerism is your best yet!
July 31, 200719 yr Just another mind-numbing stat that doesn't make much sense when you can easily discern who can and cannot play defense by simply watching the game. Think of this, he "cleanly fields" 84 out of 100. Not to mention "typical defensive zone". Too much room for opinion to make that statistic worth anything. Perhaps just watching them play the game is no longer enough! BTW, this round of Dunn homerism is your best yet! A. I neither developed the stat, how it was calculated, nor decided the USA Today should print it. B. Look at their list of best at each spot -- you wildly disagree? C. I made it quite clear, I thought, that I never said I agreed with their findings.
July 31, 200719 yr By the way, according to them, the best defensive player in the Major Leagues (at any position) is LF Carl Crawford of TB. He cleanly fields 94.4% of the balls that would land in his typical defensive zone. Again, don't shoot the messenger. I'm just passing along knowledge.
July 31, 200719 yr A. I neither developed the stat, how it was calculated, nor decided the USA Today should print it. B. Look at their list of best at each spot -- you wildly disagree? C. I made it quite clear, I thought, that I never said I agreed with their findings. I didn't mean any of that as a personal attack HSSB. I'm just saying that it's not as difficult to determine with the naked eye by simply watching the games who is and isn't a quality fielder at any position. I never implied that you agreed with the stat. Frankly, I'd hope all Dunn homerism aside, you'd agree he's not in the top 10. I will, however, say that I believe that E-5 is more of a defensive liability than Dunn. But we all know your affinity for the Donkey. This stat however is silly IMO and the only fact that I find is that is in black and white in the USAToday. It is perhaps the most silly and most wildly inaccurate I've seen.
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