August 7, 200719 yr Haven't we had this discussion already? Why do we have to replace his offensive production? I believe like some others throughout this thread that his production can be replaced in a couple of ways. Solid major leaguers, not necessarily HR hitters. Eliminate 125 whiffs a season and you've inherently improved your productive AB's. Like someone said earlier about the Mariners when they let Jr. or A-Rod go, they didn't replace that production apple for apple, yet managed to be more than competitive. I'll do my best Strike3 retort here,,,,,,,pitching! We lead the league in HR's and still suck FWIW. Who says anything about HRs? You can't score runs without getting on base, correct? He's on on-base machine AND he has power. HRs and RBIs do not always tell the story of one's ability to produce. Dunn handles both sides of the argument - stat geeks like me who say OBP and SLG lead to runs - and others who say HRs and RBIs are the way to measure offensive productivity. The K argument is invalid IMO. Would it be nice if he struck out less? Obviously. However, almost every batter has a downfall. Casey didn't strike out much but hit into DPs a lot. Others have a nice average but do not get on base outside of hits. You have to look at the total package. So, to get back to your original question, you MUST replace his offense. No way in heck do you get enough pitching improvement to overcome his lack of offensive production.
August 7, 200719 yr Who says anything about HRs? You can't score runs without getting on base, correct? He's on on-base machine AND he has power. HRs and RBIs do not always tell the story of one's ability to produce. Dunn handles both sides of the argument - stat geeks like me who say OBP and SLG lead to runs - and others who say HRs and RBIs are the way to measure offensive productivity. The K argument is invalid IMO. Would it be nice if he struck out less? Obviously. However, almost every batter has a downfall. Casey didn't strike out much but hit into DPs a lot. Others have a nice average but do not get on base outside of hits. You have to look at the total package. So, to get back to your original question, you MUST replace his offense. No way in heck do you get enough pitching improvement to overcome his lack of offensive production. Solo homeruns. You don't have to have anyone on base for that.
August 7, 200719 yr Who says anything about HRs? You can't score runs without getting on base, correct? He's on on-base machine AND he has power. HRs and RBIs do not always tell the story of one's ability to produce. Dunn handles both sides of the argument - stat geeks like me who say OBP and SLG lead to runs - and others who say HRs and RBIs are the way to measure offensive productivity. The K argument is invalid IMO. Would it be nice if he struck out less? Obviously. However, almost every batter has a downfall. Casey didn't strike out much but hit into DPs a lot. Others have a nice average but do not get on base outside of hits. You have to look at the total package. So, to get back to your original question, you MUST replace his offense. No way in heck do you get enough pitching improvement to overcome his lack of offensive production. Well I suppose I will never agree then. With your argument, it leads one to believe that you have to go out and find a Dunn clone. I don't believe that at all. If you can find a solid ML player with other attributes and just for kicks, say he is a 30 HR guy. He easily could become a 40 HR guy in GASP. Economics included, I'll take upgrades on the hill, and a suitable replacement in left, or somewhere else. I hope that in the event Dunn leaves that we can all revisit this issue next season around this time. Hard to doubt that we won't be worse. I'll go out on a limb and guess our production offensively as a team doesn't suffer that much if at all without the big bopper if he in fact plays somewhere else next season.
August 7, 200719 yr Solo homeruns. You don't have to have anyone on base for that. A solo HR would count as being on base, correct?
August 7, 200719 yr ...However, almost every batter has a downfall... Hell, people complained that Tony Gwynn didn't hit enough homeruns...
August 7, 200719 yr Well I suppose I will never agree then. With your argument, it leads one to believe that you have to go out and find a Dunn clone. I don't believe that at all. If you can find a solid ML player with other attributes and just for kicks, say he is a 30 HR guy. He easily could become a 40 HR guy in GASP. Economics included, I'll take upgrades on the hill, and a suitable replacement in left, or somewhere else. I hope that in the event Dunn leaves that we can all revisit this issue next season around this time. Hard to doubt that we won't be worse. I'll go out on a limb and guess our production offensively as a team doesn't suffer that much if at all without the big bopper if he in fact plays somewhere else next season. How much do you think you're going to pay for a guy who hits 30 to 40 HRs? Pretty close to the $13M due the Donkey next year. So, you have no extra funds to improve the woeful pitching unless Big Bob commits to a pretty good increase in payroll. If he can get a)a 30 HR guy who gets on base a lot and b)a much improved pitching staff ("much" being the key word) even at the increased cost then I'll be happy. He's hitting .260+ and on pace for 40 bombs , 100 runs, .918 OPS and 100+ rbi's and you say he can't do much worse? Are you serious?
August 7, 200719 yr A solo HR would count as being on base, correct? I dunno, I mean you're not on any base when you hit it are you? You're in the batters box. So I guess it could go either way, simply because you hit each base path.
August 7, 200719 yr I dunno, I mean you're not on any base when you hit it are you? You're in the batters box. So I guess it could go either way, simply because you hit each base path. Let me state it this way. If its your first PA of the season and no one is on base when you go yard, your OB% is 1.000.
August 7, 200719 yr SvFan, you know I think highly of your opinions, but did you actually infer that the Braves wouldn't need Adam Dunn because they have "Willie Harris and Matt Diaz" in LF? Wow.
August 8, 200719 yr SvFan, you know I think highly of your opinions, but did you actually infer that the Braves wouldn't need Adam Dunn because they have "Willie Harris and Matt Diaz" in LF? Wow. I can honestly say yes. Harris and Diaz produce less strikeouts, more stolen bases, and better defense, and they are less expensive than Dunn. Tell me, if you think the Braves would go after him then why not get him instead of Tex? Would make more sense but they didn't even inquire about Dunn. In my honest opinion I do not think the Braves have any interest in him whatsoever.
August 8, 200719 yr I can honestly say yes. Harris and Diaz produce less strikeouts, more stolen bases, and better defense, and they are less expensive than Dunn. Tell me, if you think the Braves would go after him then why not get him instead of Tex? Would make more sense but they didn't even inquire about Dunn. In my honest opinion I do not think the Braves have any interest in him whatsoever. The Braves were getting ZERO production at first base. Texas was looking to get rid of a young soon-to-be very expensive first baseman. Match made in heaven.
August 8, 200719 yr I checked with a Reds beatwriter on his thoughts on Dunn being traded. His best guess is that Dunn is a Red in 08 and , if not in the playoff hunt, he gets traded by the deadline.
August 8, 200719 yr The same beatwriter said in response to "which one is more likely to be here on Opening Day - Donkey or Wayne?" that it would be Dunn.
August 8, 200719 yr How much do you think you're going to pay for a guy who hits 30 to 40 HRs? Pretty close to the $13M due the Donkey next year. So, you have no extra funds to improve the woeful pitching unless Big Bob commits to a pretty good increase in payroll. If he can get a)a 30 HR guy who gets on base a lot and b)a much improved pitching staff ("much" being the key word) even at the increased cost then I'll be happy. He's hitting .260+ and on pace for 40 bombs , 100 runs, .918 OPS and 100+ rbi's and you say he can't do much worse? Are you serious? Where did I say that? All I'm saying is that if Dunn is gone, and I'm not sure he will be, nor do I say that I'd be less inclined to take the club option for next season, my point is this,,,,again,,,,I think it's silly to say you absolutely have to replace Dunn's production to the tee if he's not here next season. I believe that if we stay this course, you know,,,long ball happy,,,we will continue to lead the league in HR's and battle the Pirates for the cellar. If getting rid of Dunn heads us in a different direction, I'm all for it. For the record, I'm a Dunn fan, but moreover, I'm a Reds fan. I'd rather have Arizona's no name lineup and be in contention rather than have a whose who of those who haven't sniffed the post season.
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