He's been very successful at every level, why not continue with the natural progression of things and see what happens?

 

Unfortunately you are incorrect. The only chance at the highest level that he's had and he was not very successful. That's the part that bothers me...

I'm not opposed to seeing what he's got, but does it really makes sense in this situation? Packed house against a team flat out mashing the ball in a band box park. And replacing a guy in Livingston that just gave you a very good start last week. The logic in bringing him up now just seems off to me...

Wow, something to give reason to be genuinely excited about the Reds. Regardless of how it turns out for him in his first start, it feels good to be this pumped about a Reds' game.

Wow, something to give reason to be genuinely excited about the Reds. Regardless of how it turns out for him in his first start, it feels good to be this pumped about a Reds' game.

 

I'm kind of nervous...

Unfortunately you are incorrect. The only chance at the highest level that he's had and he was not very successful. That's the part that bothers me...

If you're talking about spring training, well, look at all of the "studs" with high ernies in spring training that are seemingly fine right now. I doubt spring training has one iota of bearing on how he'll do here, for better or worse, IMO.

I'm not opposed to seeing what he's got, but does it really makes sense in this situation? Packed house against a team flat out mashing the ball in a band box park. And replacing a guy in Livingston that just gave you a very good start last week. The logic in bringing him up now just seems off to me...

Well, I agree about Livingston, so IMO, that would make others in the rotation or long relief have a very short leash.

Well, I agree about Livingston, so IMO, that would make others in the rotation or long relief have a very short leash.

Livingston is not a better option than Lohse or Belisle. At this point I do prefer him over Bailey in the 5 spot right now. I guess we'll see...

Livingston is not a better option than Lohse or Belisle. At this point I do prefer him over Bailey in the 5 spot right now. I guess we'll see...

Well, the back of Lohse card doesn't inspire me as much so I won't judge his worth on his up and down starts thus far, I agree on Belisle, and yes, I suppose we will wait and see with regards to Homer. So, why not consider Livingston for the bully? He seemed awfully tough on lefties.

Dude, they've been covering the game for 50 years, I think they have an idea of what they speak.

 

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My brother from another mother:

 

I posted the criteria for the Super 2 or whatever they call it. How in the world can ANYONE forecast it?

 

Am I misunderstanding the criteria?

Let's be honest here, "most" Minor League players on any roster, aren't going to be impact players in the Majors, or they would already be up.

 

Yes, some can get the call and have success, while others will have to adjust. MLB hitters, can turn on a 95mph FB and stay back, on the best CV. The key to any new pitcher, is command of his pitches and locate well, while adjusting speeds.

 

Hopefully, Bailey can do that and help the Reds....time will tell.

My brother from another mother:

 

I posted the criteria for the Super 2 or whatever they call it. How in the world can ANYONE forecast it?

 

Am I misunderstanding the criteria?

 

You watch the game, up close, for 30 years. You have access to information that most of us don't have. You can look back at when "super 2" status has USUALLY kicked in, and map out a point in time that in a typical year will put you over the top. Man you are a fantastic salesman, I know you completely understand the point of trends, averages, and forecasting. Why is it so hard to get that if it is usually around XYZ date, that it stands to reason the average year will look like the previous 30? I don't get it.

 

Again, I don't really care.

 

I think this is the wrong time to bring him up. I think Homer is the finest pitching prospect this organization has produced in probably 20 years. To bring him up, at 21, with two months of AAA ball under his belt, when the team is lounging in last place, against an offensive juggernaut, in a series that would already be nearly a sell-out -- it just makes no sense.

 

Spindoc, I hope he is lights out. I hope he is lights out the rest of the year, makes me look overly cautious and short-sighted. I'll wear that wreath with pride. I just don't see the point. It wreaks of a PR move by the club, and to me, that is weak.

....It wreaks of a PR move by the club, and to me, that is weak.

...or, it wreaks of a boost in attendance, which is $$$$, which is my thoughts. Perhaps even, a combination of both.

 

If Bailey comes up, has success the comments will be...."I told you so and what took so long". If he struggles, the bathwater will be thrown out and he'll be right with it.

I know you completely understand the point of trends, averages, and forecasting. Why is it so hard to get that if it is usually around XYZ date, that it stands to reason the average year will look like the previous 30? I don't get it.

 

 

If that super 2 thing is a priority, you simply do not take a chance because "usually" and trends and forecasting do not cut it as far as determining when I can bring him up.

 

If its not a priority, you bring him up when you think he's ready.

 

 

You should NEVER guess as to what that date might be in 3 years and then make a decision off of it. That's poor decision making.

...or, it wreaks of a boost in attendance, which is $$$$, which is my thoughts. Perhaps even, a combination of both.

 

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...then why do it against the Indians?

For the record, I'm not necessarily sold that this exact point in time is best to bring him up. But I also don't think treating him like a piece of china is the way to go either. There are definitely better choices of teams for him to make his debut against than Cleveland's monster lineup, but I guess if you really want to know how ready he is, this is as good a test as any.

 

But I'm also not sure it is a move to get butts in the seats. This weekend's games would likely all be big sellers anyway. If you wanted to get people out to the yard, start him on a Tuesday or Wednesday night home game if an extra 10K in walk-ups is the goal.