Daviess County vs. Great Crossing Predictions/Updates (KHSAA Boys' Sweet 16®)

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1. Who wins?
- Daviess County
  
  3%
  
  1
- Great Crossing
  
  96%
  
  25

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Poll closed on 03/27/2025 at 10:00 PM

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March 20, 20251 yr

Game 7 of the Sweet 16 First Round will match the Champions of the 3rd Region, 25-6 Daviess County against the 11th Region Champion, 31-4 Great Crossing. The War Hawks are making their 2nd straight trip to Rupp while Daviess County is back at state for the first time since 2011. The 3rd Region has gone 10 years since winning in the Sweet 16. The last win for the region was the 2015 State Championship from Owensboro.

Great Crossing comes in as the heavy favorite in this match-up, as they have won 23 straight games. They have not lost since December 28th. The War Hawks are led by Mr Basketball, Malachi Moreno. Moreno is averaging 21.5 points per game and nearly 15 boards per contest. The War Hawks go about 6-7 players deep, putting 3 in double figures. Along with Moreno, Vince Dawson is scoring 18.1 ppg while LJ Holman is scoring 11.3. Great Crossing is 6th in the state in team scoring at 75.9 ppg while leading the state in field goal percentage at a 55.2%. They rank 11th in rebounding at 34.6 boards per game.

Daviess County enters the Sweet 16 having won 8 of their last 9 games. They handled the best the 3rd Region had to offer on their path to state. They are led by Jonathan Moss and his 19.6 points per game. Moss is a dynamic guard, that is just as good passing as he is scoring. He is joined by swingman DeAaron Watkins. Watkins scores 16.2 points per game while pulling 10.5 rebounds. Seniors guards Jaxson Brown and Ayden Ayer are hard nosed on both ends of the floor for Coach Hayden. That duo, along with Jospeh Varble are playing their best basketball of the season. The Panthers will want to stay out of foul trouble, as they only go 6 deep with Kaden Payne off the bench. Daviess County ranks in the top 50 in scoring at 68.3 ppg. They shoot it 51% from the field, good for 13th in the state. From the line, there is noboby better than their 80.4% percentage and they rank 23rd in 3 point percentage at 38.2%.

March 22, 20251 yr

Great Crossing is 26-1 against in-state competition this season, and 56-2 over the past 2 seasons. They are definitely the favorite in this one. However, they have been tested a few times this season outside of the St. Xavier game. The last 2 games of the 11th Region Tournament were on possession games against Bryan Station and Frederick Douglass. In both of those games the Warhawks were held to 59 points. South Laurel also played Great Crossing to a one possession game back on Valentine's Day, at Great Crossing. And finally, Male came up just short 60-58 in the Dan Cummins Shootout at Scott County. In other words, there are teams outside of St. X that can play with, and defeat the Warhawks. The common denominator in those games, as well as in their 4 losses, has been keeping the score in the 50s-60s. Daviess County is surrendering 55.9 points per game on the season. If they can keep this game in the 50s-60s they have a chance. If it gets above that, it will be tough to overcome the Warhawks, who are 24-1 when they score over 70 points in a game. The teams have one common opponent this season: Male. The Panthers fell to Male 73-56, while the Warhawks squeaked by the Bulldogs 60-58 as previously mentioned.

The guess here is that Great Crossing's experience against big time competition, familiarity with playing in the Sweet Sixteen, and of course Malachi Moreno, will be a little bit too much for the Panthers to overcome. I like Great Crossing to advance to the quarterfinals 75-62.