36 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Calloway will really hurt PT's OWP and RPI. Same thing just happened to Beechwood playing a zero win team - Beechwood dropped two places in RPI because of the OWP impact of playing a zero win team.

Do you remember what their number was before and after?

If you hold everything else constant (scary, I know) - PT’s WP goes to 1.0884, OWP .5941, and OOWP .5573.  
 

That would make PT’s RPI .7561

Remember that there are a LOT of moving parts here. But my best guess is that PT will end up 3rd in 4A. I think it will be really tight between Franklin & Boyle for 1/2.  
 

Really just my hunch though 

25 minutes ago, D Wolf said:

If you hold everything else constant (scary, I know) - PT’s WP goes to 1.0884, OWP .5941, and OOWP .5573.  
 

That would make PT’s RPI .7561

Remember that there are a LOT of moving parts here. But my best guess is that PT will end up 3rd in 4A. I think it will be really tight between Franklin & Boyle for 1/2.  
 

Really just my hunch though 

Things are about to get very interesting... there are some opponents that are on there schedule that have some big games left. Tilghman is going to need all the help they can get that's for sure.

5 hours ago, D Wolf said:

If you hold everything else constant (scary, I know) - PT’s WP goes to 1.0884, OWP .5941, and OOWP .5573.  
 

That would make PT’s RPI .7561

Remember that there are a LOT of moving parts here. But my best guess is that PT will end up 3rd in 4A. I think it will be really tight between Franklin & Boyle for 1/2.  
 

Really just my hunch though 

Those numbers for WP and OWP look close to what I would expect.

7 hours ago, DearToday said:

Do you remember what their number was before and after?

Before facing 0-8 Carroll County, Beechwood OWP was .46197.

After, Beechwood OWP dropped to .43293. 

A drop of .02904.

RPI went from .75386 to .73050. 

Really tighten up tonight.   Boyle at home with Douglas, Franklin with GRC, and PT with Russellville to end the season.  

1	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	9	-	0			9	1.08840	.60507	.55403	.75892
2	Franklin County	4A	4	9	-	0			9	1.05006	.60981	.58618	.75681
3	Boyle County	4A	7	9	-	0			9	1.05254	.60450	.56209	.74859

6 minutes ago, Rebel said:

Really tighten up tonight.   Boyle at home with Douglas, Franklin with GRC, and PT with Russellville to end the season.  

1	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	9	-	0			9	1.08840	.60507	.55403	.75892
2	Franklin County	4A	4	9	-	0			9	1.05006	.60981	.58618	.75681
3	Boyle County	4A	7	9	-	0			9	1.05254	.60450	.56209	.74859

I think if Boyle beats FD next week they will Jump Paducah Tilghman, I don't think they will catch Franklin County. Paducah ends the season against 1A Russellville, I think that will hurt them. 

Will Russellville hurt them as bad as you think?  RPI allows for 2 play downs, and Russellville is 5-4.  

8 minutes ago, Statsdontlie said:

I think if Boyle beats FD next week they will Jump Paducah Tilghman, I don't think they will catch Franklin County. Paducah ends the season against 1A Russellville, I think that will hurt them. 

 

4

Frederick Douglass

6A

8

6

-

3

9

.66667

.73114

.52263

.64602

Didn't think Franklin was within reach until tonight.  Douglas has a better win% and OP win% over GRC.  

21

George Rogers Clark

6A

8

4

-

5

9

.44444

.43521

.56399

.47708

10 minutes ago, KingDeuce said:

Will Russellville hurt them as bad as you think?  RPI allows for 2 play downs, and Russellville is 5-4.  

Both Boyle and Franklin will get 6A bonus points.  Douglas has a better win % and OP win% over Russellville. Boyle will gain more points but will it be enough?  

20

Russellville

1A

1

4

-

4

8

.55896

.43803

.49552

.49760

4

Frederick Douglass

6A

8

6

-

3

9

.66667

.73114

.52263

.64602

Updated more games added and Franklin has already passed PT.  Still a few more games to add tonight.

1	Franklin County	4A	4	9	-	0			9	1.05006	.61145	.58930	.75832
2	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	9	-	0			9	1.08840	.59494	.56268	.75797
3	Boyle County	4A	7	9	-	0			9	1.05254	.60615	.56557	.75021

Tilghmans back to 1 already. 

1	Paducah Tilghman	4A	1	9	-	0			9	1.08840	.60288	.55369	.75805
2	Franklin County	4A	4	9	-	0			9	1.05006	.60400	.59074	.75614
3	Boyle County	4A	7	9	-	0			9	1.05254	.60615	.56946	.75138
4	Ashland Blazer	4A	6	8	-	1			9	.90557	.61544	.57345	.70439
5	Corbin	4A	8	8	-	1			9	.88673	.60497	.59199	.69970
6	North Oldham	4A	4	7	-	2			9	.84949	.66753	.53515	.69150
7	Covington Catholic	4A	5	7	-	2			9	.83032	.58490	.52026	.65141
8	Greenup County	4A	6	7	-	2			9	.79446	.59087	.53502	.64537
9	Allen County-Scottsville	4A	1	8	-	1			9	.85994	.53331	.50571	.63935
10	Johnson Central	4A	6	7	-	3			10	.69065	.60694	.58413	.62940
11	DeSales	4A	3	7	-	2			9	.83032	.53231	.48111	.62125
12	Spencer County	4A	4	6	-	3			9	.71672	.53943	.52971	.59857
13	Boyd County	4A	6	5	-	4			9	.54108	.69518	.51601	.58749
14	Wayne County	4A	7	7	-	2			9	.78408	.45933	.50359	.58627
15	Mason County	4A	5	7	-	2			9	.79446	.41984	.49459	.57338
16	Bardstown	4A	2	6	-	3			9	.66667	.54205	.49357	.57112
17	John Hardin	4A	2	7	-	2			9	.75645	.43899	.46748	.55865
18	Letcher County Central	4A	8	5	-	4			9	.52848	.58498	.55858	.55729
19	Henry County	4A	4	5	-	4			9	.62479	.52034	.51800	.55619
20	Taylor County	4A	7	5	-	4			9	.57224	.54562	.54779	.55559
21	Doss	4A	3	6	-	3			9	.71921	.45083	.48121	.55388
22	Warren East	4A	1	5	-	4			9	.64396	.43886	.51010	.53202
23	Western Hills	4A	4	6	-	3			9	.59202	.48465	.51205	.53045
24	Whitley County	4A	8	4	-	5			9	.46113	.53838	.55791	.51720
25	Russell County	4A	7	4	-	5			9	.44665	.58505	.48249	.50584
26	Perry County Central	4A	8	4	-	5			9	.37582	.63216	.50533	.50439
27	Grant County	4A	5	6	-	3			9	.66667	.33619	.49765	.50030
28	Logan County	4A	1	4	-	5			9	.44444	.50511	.51892	.48802
29	Hopkinsville	4A	1	3	-	6			9	.36919	.54899	.53748	.48261
30	Lincoln County	4A	7	4	-	5			9	.44665	.47726	.51182	.47692
31	Jeffersontown	4A	3	5	-	4			9	.57224	.36475	.45876	.46558
32	Rowan County	4A	6	2	-	7			9	.19327	.57248	.50373	.41913
33	Western	4A	3	3	-	6			9	.33333	.45132	.47833	.41813
34	Nelson County	4A	2	2	-	7			9	.22222	.55261	.48138	.41560
35	Breckinridge County	4A	2	3	-	6			9	.33333	.42693	.44768	.40040
36	Harrison County	4A	5	2	-	7			9	.20775	.47909	.46678	.38043
37	Shelby County	4A	4	0	-	9			9	.00000	.57989	.49212	.35060
38	Valley	4A	3	2	-	7			9	.22222	.38923	.44600	.34781
39	Calloway County	4A	1	0	-	9			9	.00000	.50835	.51134	.33132
40	Holmes	4A	5	0	-	9			9	.00000	.48452	.47291	.31145
41	Thomas Nelson	4A	2	1	-	8			9	.08404	.41347	.43869	.30573
42	Waggener	4A	3	0	-	9			9	.00000	.47706	.39884	.28662

I crunched some numbers and I feel pretty good about Boyle ending up in the number 1 spot.  The numbers that Douglass adds to theirs are very beneficial.  
 

The 2 vs 3 will be very tight, but I give a slight edge to Franklin.  The 6A win bump helps out quite a bit.  
 

This is all just hypotheticals.  Each of these teams needs for the teams they’ve played to win Friday night (thanks Captain Obvious!)

I kinda wanna see PT move to third or even fourth just to upset them enough to want to prove they are better than that. Maybe play a top 6 team early so they can "wake up" and know what it will take to get to Lexington. Not to say that they are sleeping right now, but they really haven't been tested since September.