BluegrassPreps.com 4th Region Boys Basketball Regional Tournament Preview

[DragonFire]

Ranking the Field

1. Bowling Green
2. Warren Central
3. Barren County
4. Glasgow
5. Cumberland County
6. Logan County
7. Metcalfe County
8. Russellville

Game 1: Cumberland County (17-13) vs. Barren County (20-12)
Series in 2023-24: First Meeting
Series Overall (since 1997/98): Barren County leads 25-2 (14 straight wins, last loss in 2009)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Barren County leads 4-1 (4 straight wins, last meeting in 2022)

By almost any metric, Cumberland County is enjoying their best season  in a long, long time.  They clinched a winning record and a district title for the first time since 2009.  They have their best record and most wins since going 23-7 in 1997.  It has been a steady climb for a team that went winless nine years ago.  And now they set their sights on something else that has been elusive for quite some time – a region tournament victory.  Cumberland County has lost their last nine games in the 4th Region tournament, with their last victory coming in 1990.  Their opponent, Barren County, is a name that has popped up quite a bit in that time of futility.  Barren County knocked them off two years ago when they met in the quarterfinals, and have beaten them four out of those nine straight losses.  On the other side of that, Cumberland County’s last victory in the region tournament (their only one since 1981) was also over Barren County.  The Panthers are looking to throw off a lot of history.  They enter a winners of seven of their last 11 games, with their most I'm pressive win in the stretch being a 67-59 win over Clinton County in the district semifinals, their first postseason win over the Bulldogs since 2009 (earlier this year, Cumberland County beat them for the first time at any point since that same postseason game in 2009 – you’ll note the theme of this team accomplishing things they haven’t in a while).  Cumberland County is led by Zachery Harwood, a 2nd Team all-region selection.  Harwood averages 16.2 PPG, and he was right on that average in the district final, scoring 16 points on 6/8 shooting from the floor – though just 4 of 12 from the foul line.  Harwood tied for leading scorer in their loss to Barren County last year, but scored just 8 as the Panthers struggled against a much better Barren County team that year.  Given their futility at region and against Barren County in particular, it is hard to pick them here, but they have made it their business to surprise people this year.  Meanwhile, Barren County has had an odd, meandering road to this point.  They are one of only two teams with 20+ wins on the season, which would seem to establish them as the favorite.  But as discussed in the district preview, they have had some odd results down the stretch.  They had big losses to Glasgow and Allen County-Scottsville during the regular season.  They fell to Monroe County on the road.  In the district tournament, they required a strong kick in the last half of the fourth quarter to put away a three-win Allen County team, and for the first three quarters against Glasgow win the district final were thoroughly dominated, before making it at least a respectable result at the end.  Their stretch of six wins in ten games is probably not a disappointment to many teams, but to not be a district champion after starting the year 4-0 in district play is a surprise. They do have many significant advantages over their opponent.  For starters, they are very, very used to the region tournament atmosphere, as they make their fifth straight trip to the tournament, and they have the advantage of the longest tenured head coach in the region, as Warren Cunningham is in his 16th season at the helm of the program.  The Trojans have won their last three region tournament openers, and they haven’t lost to a team not from the 14th District in the region tournament since 2012, which is the last time they lost to one from the 16th District (they’ve won their last five).  The players on the floor may not be quite as experienced as they’re used to being able to put out there – only two players on the team logged a shot in last year’s region tournament loss to Bowling Green – but the program culture is one that is used to being there, and that counts for a lot when those lights come on at WKU.  Tate Spillman, a 2nd Team all-region selection, had 10 in that loss last year to Bowling Green, and leads the team with 14.4 PPG this year.  Their offensive attack contrasts with Cumberland County – the Panthers are more likely to look to get shots at the rim while Barren County launches over half their shots from deep.  And that’s likely a huge source of the erratic nature of their wins and losses.  When you’re hitting from three, you’re quite formidable.  But those shots are always at a lower percentage, and if they’re not falling, you’re in trouble.  Sometimes…. they don’t fall when the depth and lighting changes as at Diddle.  If Barren County gets down early and threes aren’t falling, they may find the battle back quite difficult.  Still, ultimately, the Trojans are the pick here by 3-5 points.

Game 2: Bowling Green (27-5) vs. Russellville (6-26)
Series in 2023-24: Bowling Green leads 1-0 (88-39 W on 1/2/24)
Series Overall (since 1929): Bowling Green leads 94-32 (18 straight wins, last loss in 2008)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Bowling Green leads 8-4 (4 straight wins, last meeting in 2017)

In many years, this would be a real treat.  Bowling Green and Russellville are two of the oldest schools in the region, and no other team has made more region tournaments than these two.  They’ve had some legendary matchups in the region tournament, and Russellville is the last team outside the 14th District to defeat the Purples in the semifinal or final round, doing so in the 2001 region semifinals.  This year, however, is not a year where this will be a game.  If you were to seed the tournament, you’d have exactly this matchup – the best team in the field against the worst.  The 21-win disparity between these two teams is virtually unprecedented – the last time there was such a large difference in two teams matching up in this region was between Auburn and Lewisburg in 1950.  Neither of those two teams exist anymore – it’s been a long, long time since we’ve seen a David and Goliath matchup to this magnitude.  The Purples have been the favorite all year long, a strong, athletic, veteran team.  They’ve won five in a row and 20 of 21, with their only loss coming by a single point in double overtime at Lyon County, one of the fellow teams that are considered frontrunners for a state title.  It’s their only loss in the 2024 calendar year.  The Purples have not been held below 73 points in any of their last six games, and have scored less than 69 only once in the last ten games.  They average 70.75 PPG, placing them in the top 30 in the state, and their average margin of victory of 16.6 PPG places them 12th.  The Purples had two members of the all-region 1st team in Mason Ritter and MJ Wardlow, and placed Deuce Bailey on the 2nd team.  Mason Ritter was co-POY as named by the KABC, and is without peer among big men in the region.  Ritter causes other teams problems because they have to work hard to make sure he doesn’t beat them with his height and size, but the problem there is that Bowling Green’s guards are too tough to handle one on one as well.  Wardlow, Bailey, and Braylon Banks, among others, are lightning quick and can make shots from anywhere on the floor.  In short, the Purples simply have the best matchups all over the floor, and you’re really just hoping they are way, way off their game to have any chance at all.  In their first matchup with Russellville, the Purples scored what was then their highest total in just over two years, and it is still their second highest scoring output in regulation.  Guards Bailey, Wardlow, Banks and Luke Idlett combined for 56 points in that contest, outscoring Russellville all on their own.  While their chances of winning the game are infinitesimal, the Panthers are really a success story just even being here.  They lost their final three entering the postseason, had lost 13 of 14 games against district tournament opponent Franklin-Simpson, and appeared destined to finish with just five wins, their fewest since 1968 when they won only two.  If they don’t pull off what I can only describe as a miracle victory here, their six wins will merely equal their worst since that year, last winning only six in 1994.  But the Panthers, who did have homecourt advantage, shocked everyone, beating Franklin-Simpson 59-54 for the first upset of a 1 seed in the 4th Region since 2018 (at the time – Metcalfe County would join them a day later).  The win sent them to region for the first time in three years for just their second appearance since making the finals in 2017.  The Panthers do have a pair of scorers in Octabious McKeage (15.7 PPG) and Eli McMurry (14.7 PPG), but Russellville only averages a little more than 55 PPG.  Bowling Green has only scored at that total or below five times this year, and Warren Central was the only team in the region to hold them to that amount.  So the choice for the Panthers becomes either trying to score well above what they generally have been able to do, or to control the tempo and hold scoring down as far as they can.  They’d better choose the latter, or this will be over even faster than expected.  If there was ever a candidate for a literal stall ball attack, this would be the game.  Ultimately, Bowling Green is going to win by as many as they want to.  The all-time margin record for the region is 49 points, and there have been only nine games ever in the region to have margins of 40 points or more.  Bowling Green seems likely to challenge those marks here.

Game 3: Logan County (16-15) vs. Warren Central (14-11)
Series in 2023-24: First Meeting
Series Overall: Warren Central leads 37-16 (14 straight wins, last loss in 2000)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Warren Central leads 4-1 (1 straight win, last meeting in 2019)

This is a rare region tournament matchup and even rarer in the opening round of the tournament.  These two have not met in the region tournament in five years, which was their only matchup since 1997.  They have not drawn each other right away since 1983, notable as the very first region tournament game the consolidated Logan County High School ever played, which Central won 55-53 en route to a region title – Logan County would win the school’s only region title and then state title the following year.  The 2019 region tournament matchup is the last time the two teams have met, as a matchup that was played twice a year as recently as 2002 has not been on the regular season schedule since the 17/18 season.  For Logan County, it’s almost devastating in terms of the draw.  Besides losing 14 in a row to Warren Central, they’ve lost their last five region tournament matchups with representatives from the 14th District, and 13th District representatives have lost their last 33 region tournament teams from the 14th District.  For Logan County, their last win over a 14th District representative was their lone 4th Region tournament victory over Warren Central, a 67-66 win over the Dragons in 1997.  Much like their city brethren in Russellville, they’ve got a lot of history to overcome.  The 2023/24 edition enters the tournament winners of five of their last seven, giving them their first district title since 2020 and first region tournament berth since the same year.  The Cougars are led by Samson Hightower, who averages 14.9 PPG, making 47.4% of his attempts from the field.  Kade Wall also averages in double figures with 10.2 PPG, while the Cougars average a little over 59 PPG as a team.  One area where Warren Central has proven vulnerable, especially lately, has been in three point defense.  The Cougars make around 35% as a team, averaging 6. 5 per game from the perimeter.  A player to watch from there is Colby Collins, who leads the team with 61, making 37% of his attempts.  Like Russellville, it would be very advisable for Logan County to try to control the pace, slow the game down, and not to try to run with Central.  The Cougars have scored above 60 points only three times in their last 15 games, so they’re not accustomed to winning shootouts.  It’s notable that Logan County won only three region games against teams outside their district – two were over Allen County-Scottsville.  Warren Central’s region track record really speaks for itself.  They’re 69-12 all-time in tournament play, having won 18 region titles, their last 15 games at Diddle, and are the defending state champions.  Still, most of the players from those are gone, with only region POY (and co-POY voted by KABC) Kade Unseld the only remaining player with a wealth of experience in the tournament.  Much like Barren County, their strengths are in the culture of winning and the steady guidance of a long-time coach, in this case William Unseld, who is in his 13th year at the helm for Central.  The Dragons have won their last 13 tournament games against representatives from the 13th District, and are 22-3 all-time.  They have advanced beyond the first round of region in 21 of their last 22 tournament appearances.  This is not necessarily the best opening game they could have drawn, but they certainly are going to be confident.  The Dragons’ record is deceptive as they started 1-4 without several members of their rotation, including Unseld.  They are 11-5 with Unseld in the lineup – all of those losses coming to teams that are ranked in the top 5-6 in the state -  and all restrictions have been lifted for him in the postseason.  Unseld is merely #2 on the team in scoring, averaging 16.1 PPG, but is generally the head of their offense, their primary ballhandler, their best distributor.  The leading scorer on the team in PPG is Elijah Starks, who averaged 17.8 PPG over 18 games played.  Capable of shooting from the perimeter, he mostly lives within 8-12 feet from the rim, a strong finisher, and averages 9.8 rebounds per game as well.  Their other significant scorer is Drevin Bratton, whose 339 points lead the team, averaging 14.7 PPG, the only one of the three who was available to open the year.  The weakness for the Dragons lies beyond those three – they just simply don’t get consistent scoring from anyone else on the team, especially against the toughest competition.  Still, their length poses problems for many teams, and one strength they have is no one on their side of the bracket has seen them this year.  That is often a very tough adjustment for teams that haven’t played against a team so long.  If Logan County can keep the pace down, and especially if they can get out to an early lead, perhaps this one can be in doubt.  But ultimately, look for Central to settle in for a 15-20 point victory.

Game 4: Glasgow (10-16) vs. Metcalfe County (12-21)
Series in 2023-24: Metcalfe County leads 1-0 (74-70 W on 2/19/24)
Series Overall (since 1997/98): Glasgow leads 34-9 (1 straight loss, last win in 2023)
Series in 4th Region Tournament: Glasgow leads 3-2 (1 straight win, last meeting in 2011)

I’m not saying it will be the best basketball game you’ll ever watch, but if there’s one game in the opening round that I’m actually excited about, it is this one.  Both of these teams have had a lot of hard luck in the region tournament in recent years – Glasgow hasn’t advanced in the tournament since 2012, and Metcalfe County hasn’t since 2006.  It’s always fun to see matchups that appear even on paper and also guarantee that someone will get to have success they haven’t had in years.  And both teams are very surprising in their presence here, in their own ways.  For Glasgow, they enter the tournament as winners of their last three games, including nabbing their first district title since 2019.  Those three wins followed a stretch where they won only two of their previous 11, the last loss in that stretch coming on the road against the very same Metcalfe County they play here.  Their matchup in the district semifinals was with a Warren East team that had beaten them three times previously this year.  They say it is hard to beat the same team four times, and that proved true here.  Glasgow led most of the way against the Raiders, and John Carter Walbert knocked down a game-winning three with little more than a second left on the clock to beat East 59-56.  The Scotties then followed with a dismantling of Barren County, absolutely running them off the court for three quarters before letting up in the fourth, settling in for a 74-62 win that required no similar heroics.  Their other win in the last three was a home win over Cumberland County, the team that went on to win the 16th District.   It’s good to be playing your best ball at the right time, and Glasgow has that look.  Glasgow does not go very deep on the bench, with only 7-8 in their rotation and two averaging in double figures – Walbert (15.7 PPG) and Jerrick Martin (11.5 PPG).  Their first matchup with Metcalfe County was very back and forth, with four in double figures for Glasgow led by Josiah Driver’s 15 points, but the Scotties could not hold a late lead despite shooting 49.1% from the field and 47.1% from three.  Despite a huge advantage in the series in the Riherds era, Metcalfe County has frequently gotten the better of them lately, with the Hornets winning four of the last six matchups.  These two teams are very familiar with each other, as their matchup may well be the most common non-district matchup in the region.  They play every year, and several times multiple times a year, as they are this one.  As surprising as Glasgow’s advancement was, Metcalfe County’s is even more improbable.  The Hornets had to win two games just to advance to the district title game and punch their ticket for the region tournament, a very unlikely prospect for a 5 seed.  Coming into the postseason, they had won only one game out of their last eight – that victory over Glasgow.  They certainly were competitive in a lot of their games, and did own victories over both teams they needed to beat to get to the region tournament – a double overtime win over Monroe County and a 1 point win over Russell County.  Plus, Russell County looked extremely weak down the stretch.  But Metcalfe County still found themselves trailing by 1 with 6.2 seconds left to go against Monroe County in their opening round matchup.  After advancing the ball to the front court and calling another timeout, Maddux Garrett nailed a three from the wing to give the Hornets the victory.  Their second game over Russell County should have been tougher, but was far easier – they dismantled the Lakers by 17 on their own homecourt.  They could not hold onto a lead to defeat Cumberland County and repeat as district champions, but it was enough to get them through to region.  They have one of the most prolific scorers in the region, Cade Button, who posts 24.6 PPG.  One of Button’s greatest assets is his ability to get to the foul line – he has attempted 256 freebies on the year.  Hudson Jessie is the only other Hornet who averages in double figures, with 13.5 PPG.  The Hornets score 59.8 PPG as a team.  Both Button and Jessie were big in the first matchup of these teams, each scoring 25 in that 74-70 victory, with the team making 51.9% of their field goals.  It’s been 18 years since they knocked off Greenwood in the 2006 region semifinals, scoring the game-winning three on a 30 foot prayer a the buzzer.  This is the best draw Metcalfe County has had in quite some time, and it is certainly helpful for them to be playing an opponent they know they can beat, as they already have.  Still, the pick here will be Glasgow, who has to be favored based on the relative strength of teams beaten during the postseason and that this is on a neutral court, and not at home.  Glasgow wins by 4-6, but this game is a real 50/50 tossup.  

Quick predictions for later rounds:
Semifinal 1: Bowling Green over Barren County by 25
Semifinal 2: Warren Central over Glasgow by 18
Finals: Bowling Green over Warren Central by 9

I’ve been pretty matter of fact for months that it felt like Bowling Green and Warren Central was inevitable.  Bowling Green has been almost untouchable in region play, with their regular season wins over Warren Central the only times anyone else in the region has even come within 20 of the Purples. Every year I’ll note it until it stops – Bowling Green hasn’t lost a region tournament game to a team outside the 14th District since 2004, and this certainly doesn’t appear to be a candidate year for that to change.  Warren Central is obviously several steps back from last year, but their only loss in the region to a team other than Bowling Green was back on December 1st to Russell County, when they were missing several key players. (Though granted, they didn’t play many region teams outside the district.)  They have what many consider to be the region’s best player in Kade Unseld, and their track record is almost as good as Bowling Green’s when not facing a 14th District representative, losing only one region tournament game to an opponent outside the 14th District in the last 15 years.  Bowling Green feels as close to a lock to make the finals as you can get, and Central isn’t far off.  If it is those two, it will be the sixth region final meeting in seven years between the two, and 11th in 15 years.  Bowling Green is surging at the right time, and after the narrow miss they had in the final last year, missing a three that would have derailed a state title, you know they have to be hungry to take the Dragons out.  This is their year, and look for them to prove it.  If it is one of those two teams, it will be the 23rd consecutive region title for a team from the 14th District – all but one coming from these same two teams.

 

[DragonFire]

This has been a bad year for my predictions. 

[Purple88]

11 hours ago, DragonFire said:

This has been a bad year for my predictions. 

Beyond WC and BG, I think any team can beat any team in the 4th Region on a given night.

[DragonFire]

6 hours ago, Purple88 said:

Beyond WC and BG, I think any team can beat any team in the 4th Region on a given night.

I agree, and the proof is definitely on display.  Only three teams from our final top 10 were in the region tournament (could have had up to 8 as some teams did have to play each other).  Metcalfe County, Logan County, and Russellville were not ranked in the top ten a single week the entire season, but they won when they needed to.